L’École des cotes

Lanus v Boca Juniors

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-05 00:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

34 opérateurs (12 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Lanus (Local)

Prévision 31.46%3.18cote équitable
EV -1.52%
Avantage -0.485%
Kelly -0.712%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.13

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.23%31.59%31.51%34.13%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.652.902.923.1337.74%34.43%34.19%31.95%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Boca Juniors (Visiteur)

Prévision 35.24%2.84cote équitable
EV -1.32%
Avantage -0.470%
Kelly -0.732%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
33.91%35.15%35.21%36.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.402.632.652.8041.67%37.99%37.74%35.71%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 33.29%3.00cote équitable
EV +0.541%
Avantage +0.179%
Kelly +0.268%
Croissance +0.001%

avec la cote maximale 3.02

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.67%33.26%33.28%34.70%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.402.792.813.0241.67%35.81%35.59%33.11%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (34 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
1xBet3.02I 33.11%NM 31.81%EV -4.98%E -1.65%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.81%EV +0.541%E +0.179%K +0.268%G +0.001%4.1%2026-03-04 23:54
Unibet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.91%EV -11.90%E -4.25%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.91%EV -1.32%E -0.470%K -0.732%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -1.79%E -0.607%K -0.918%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 23:55
Unibet (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.91%EV -11.90%E -4.25%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.91%EV -1.32%E -0.470%K -0.732%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -1.79%E -0.607%K -0.918%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 23:55
BetRivers2.75I 36.36%NM 34.10%EV -13.47%E -4.90%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.10%EV -3.08%E -1.12%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.79%EV -1.79%E -0.607%K -0.918%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-04 23:55
Fanatics3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.61%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -6.60%E -2.49%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -3.45%E -1.19%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-04 23:20
LeoVegas (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -13.47%E -4.90%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -3.08%E -1.12%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -3.45%E -1.19%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-04 23:55
Bet Right2.85I 35.09%NM 32.25%EV -10.33%E -3.62%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -10.13%E -3.97%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -3.45%E -1.19%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-04 23:54
Ladbrokes (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26%EV -5.61%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -8.37%E -3.22%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.67%EV -4.45%E -1.55%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-04 23:54
DraftKings3.05I 32.79%NM 31.05%EV -4.03%E -1.32%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -6.60%E -2.49%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.22%EV -5.12%E -1.80%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-04 23:44
Bovada2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -7.18%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.60%E -2.49%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.88%EV -5.12%E -1.80%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-04 23:49
BetAnything3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.61%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -8.37%E -3.22%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -5.12%E -1.80%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-04 23:54
BetMGM2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -7.18%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.37%E -3.22%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.66%EV -5.12%E -1.80%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-04 23:50
LiveScore Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 34.13%EV -16.62%E -6.27%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.13%EV -6.60%E -2.49%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.74%EV -5.12%E -1.80%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-04 23:55
Virgin Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 34.13%EV -16.62%E -6.27%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.13%EV -6.60%E -2.49%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.74%EV -5.12%E -1.80%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-04 23:55
Betr (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -11.90%E -4.25%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.10%EV -11.89%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -5.12%E -1.80%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-04 23:55
Pinnacle3.13I 31.95%NM 30.90%EV -1.52%E -0.485%K -0.712%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.79%EV -2.02%E -0.727%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.30%EV -6.12%E -2.17%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-04 23:50
BetOnline.ag3.08I 32.47%NM 30.93%EV -3.09%E -1.00%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.16%EV -4.49%E -1.66%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.91%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-04 23:20
LowVig.ag3.08I 32.47%NM 30.93%EV -3.09%E -1.00%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.16%EV -4.49%E -1.66%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.91%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-04 23:20
Everygame3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -5.61%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -6.60%E -2.49%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-04 23:20
Betway2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -8.75%E -3.02%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -7.66%E -2.92%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-04 23:45
NordicBet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26%EV -5.61%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.00%EV -5.55%E -2.07%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.74%EV -7.45%E -2.68%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-04 23:20
Betsson3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26%EV -5.61%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.00%EV -5.55%E -2.07%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.74%EV -7.45%E -2.68%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-04 23:20
Marathon Bet2.97I 33.67%NM 31.40%EV -6.55%E -2.21%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.93%EV -5.90%E -2.21%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 33.67%EV -7.78%E -2.81%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-04 23:39
Betclic (FR)2.82I 35.46%NM 31.69%EV -11.27%E -4.00%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.04%EV -12.59%E -5.08%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.27%EV -7.78%E -2.81%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-04 23:44
BoyleSports2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -8.75%E -3.02%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.19%EV -8.37%E -3.22%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.27%EV -8.45%E -3.07%K -4.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-04 23:20
Parions Sport (FR)2.80I 35.71%NM 31.64%EV -11.90%E -4.25%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.15%EV -13.65%E -5.57%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.21%EV -8.45%E -3.07%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-04 23:45
FanDuel3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.61%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -3.08%E -1.12%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -10.11%E -3.75%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-04 23:34
SportsBet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.61%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -4.84%E -1.79%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -10.11%E -3.75%K -5.95%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-04 23:35
PlayUp3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -5.61%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.91%EV -6.60%E -2.49%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -10.11%E -3.75%K -5.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-04 23:40
Paddy Power2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -9.38%E -3.26%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -7.66%E -2.92%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -12.78%E -4.88%K -7.89%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-04 23:35
Sky Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 31.10%EV -9.38%E -3.26%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -8.37%E -3.22%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -13.44%E -5.17%K -8.40%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-04 23:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.88I 34.72%NM 30.23%EV -9.38%E -3.26%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.28%EV -15.41%E -6.42%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.49%EV -13.44%E -5.17%K -8.40%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-04 23:20
NetBet (FR)2.72I 36.76%NM 31.91%EV -14.42%E -5.30%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.71%EV -11.89%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.38%EV -13.44%E -5.17%K -8.40%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-04 23:43
PMU (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 30.77%EV -15.05%E -5.57%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.62%EV -15.41%E -6.42%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.62%EV -20.10%E -8.37%K -14.36%G +0.000%20.4%2026-03-04 23:34
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 30.63%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.32%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.05%0.5%2026-03-04 23:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.25I 30.77%NM 30.63%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.32%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.05%0.5%2026-03-04 23:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.25I 30.77%NM 30.63%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.32%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.05%0.5%2026-03-04 23:55
Matchbook3.25I 30.77%NM 30.55%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.48%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.97%0.7%2026-03-04 23:55