The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Independiente v Platense

2026-08-09 20:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente (Local)

Prediction 57.07%1.75fair odd
EV -4.70%
Edge -2.81%
Kelly -7.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.93%57.07%57.15%57.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.591.601.6765.79%62.86%62.50%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Platense (Visit)

Prediction 15.72%6.36fair odd
EV +3.09%
Edge +0.472%
Kelly +0.557%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 6.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.50%15.72%15.82%17.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.745.756.5620.00%17.42%17.39%15.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.22%3.67fair odd
EV -4.74%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -1.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.64%27.22%27.03%28.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.273.303.5032.79%30.56%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.95%EV -4.70%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%6.56I 15.24%NM 14.50%EV +3.09%E +0.472%K +0.557%G +0.017%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.56%EV -9.37%E -2.81%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-29 21:50
Codere (IT)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.07%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.91%EV -2.56%E -0.413%K -0.493%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -10.18%E -3.09%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-29 21:50
SportsBet1.63I 61.35%NM 57.41%EV -6.98%E -4.28%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -7.28%E -1.23%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -4.74%E -1.35%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-29 21:50
FanDuel1.62I 61.73%NM 57.56%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.80%EV -7.28%E -1.23%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -4.74%E -1.35%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-29 21:49
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 56.57%EV -4.70%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -9.64%E -1.68%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -4.74%E -1.35%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-30 00:15
Betclic (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 56.84%EV -13.26%E -8.72%K -25.50%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.02%EV -9.64%E -1.68%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 28.14%EV -16.44%E -5.36%K -7.94%G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-29 21:48
Unibet (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 56.34%EV -12.12%E -7.87%K -22.44%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.22%EV -10.42%E -1.83%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.44%EV -16.99%E -5.57%K -8.29%G +0.000%15.3%2026-07-29 21:49
Paddy Power1.60I 62.50%NM 56.31%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.38%EV -13.56%E -2.47%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -10.18%E -3.09%K -4.43%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-29 21:50
Winamax (DE)1.54I 64.94%NM 56.78%EV -12.12%E -7.87%K -22.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.90%EV -13.56%E -2.47%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.32%EV -12.91%E -4.03%K -5.87%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-29 21:49
Winamax (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 56.69%EV -13.26%E -8.72%K -25.50%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.96%EV -15.14%E -2.80%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.35%EV -14.27%E -4.53%K -6.64%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-29 21:50
Sky Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 54.93%EV -10.40%E -6.63%K -18.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.25%EV -21.42%E -4.28%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.82%EV -15.63%E -5.04%K -7.44%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-29 21:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-29 22:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-29 22:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-29 22:00