Language:English
Independiente v Platense
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Independiente (Local)
Prediction 51.77%1.93fair odd
EV -4.22%
Edge -2.28%
Kelly -4.96%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.99%51.88%51.69%54.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.771.791.8561.73%56.37%55.87%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Platense (Visit)
Prediction 18.60%5.38fair odd
EV +6.77%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.097%
assuming max odds 5.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.80%18.49%18.70%20.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.065.005.7422.22%19.76%20.00%17.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.63%3.38fair odd
EV -1.05%
Edge -0.314%
Kelly -0.449%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.36%29.62%29.61%30.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.143.153.3434.48%31.84%31.75%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente (Local): 51.77%; Platense (Visit): 18.60%; Draw: 29.63%. For Platense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.38. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.74, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.77%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.69%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.74I 17.42%NM 16.80%EV +6.77%E +1.18%K +1.43%G +0.097% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.51%EV -6.38%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.69%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.74I 17.42%NM 16.80%EV +6.77%E +1.18%K +1.43%G +0.097% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.51%EV -6.38%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.53%EV -10.95%E -6.37%K -15.21%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV +2.30%E +0.419%K +0.512%G +0.012% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -2.24%E -0.677%K -0.972%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.53%EV -10.95%E -6.37%K -15.21%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV +2.30%E +0.419%K +0.512%G +0.012% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -2.24%E -0.677%K -0.972%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.13%EV -9.40%E -5.37%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.41I 18.48%NM 17.51%EV +0.631%E +0.117%K +0.143%G +0.001% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.36%EV -1.05%E -0.314%K -0.449%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-07 12:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.47%EV -5.77%E -3.17%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV +0.445%E +0.082%K +0.101%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.84%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.47%EV -5.77%E -3.17%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV +0.445%E +0.082%K +0.101%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.84%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.67%EV -8.36%E -4.72%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV +0.445%E +0.082%K +0.101%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.07%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-08 23:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.38%EV -10.95%E -6.37%K -15.21%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.00%EV +0.445%E +0.082%K +0.101%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-09 00:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.17%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 18.04%EV -0.485%E -0.091%K -0.112%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.79%EV -4.01%E -1.24%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-09 00:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.22%EV -7.33%E -4.09%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -1.42%E -0.267%K -0.329%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 22:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.07%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -2.35%E -0.447%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-08 23:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.04%EV -15.09%E -9.20%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.38%EV -5.14%E -1.01%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.04%EV -15.09%E -9.20%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.38%EV -5.14%E -1.01%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.09%EV -16.13%E -9.95%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.18%EV -5.14%E -1.01%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.73%EV -9.64%E -3.16%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.82%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.47%EV -6.07%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.71%EV -6.98%E -2.22%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 00:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.29%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.03I 19.88%NM 18.87%EV -6.44%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.84%EV -5.79%E -1.82%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 22:34 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.60%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -7.00%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 05:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.60%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -7.00%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 05:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.60%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -7.00%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 04:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -7.00%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -3.72%E -1.14%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.50%EV -5.77%E -3.17%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -7.00%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.76%EV -6.68%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-08 23:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.12%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -7.00%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 22:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV -9.40%E -5.37%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -7.00%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.17%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-08 17:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.01%EV -10.43%E -6.03%K -14.29%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -7.00%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.99%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.24%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.02%EV -9.79%E -2.02%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-09 00:24 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -10.72%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-08 05:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.17%EV -11.47%E -6.71%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.58%EV -10.72%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.25%EV -9.64%E -3.16%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-09 00:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.10%EV -10.43%E -6.03%K -14.29%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.42%EV -10.72%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.48%EV -14.09%E -4.86%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-08 22:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -11.65%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 10:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.55%EV -7.84%E -4.41%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.32%EV -11.65%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -6.68%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-08 04:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.13%EV -9.40%E -5.37%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.04%EV -12.58%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.83%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-09 00:23 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.70%EV -11.99%E -7.05%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.70%EV -12.58%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 29.59%EV -12.01%E -4.04%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -14.44%E -3.14%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-08 02:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.23%EV -7.84%E -4.41%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.82%EV -14.44%E -3.14%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.95%EV -6.68%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-08 05:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.99%EV -7.84%E -4.41%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.73%EV -14.44%E -3.14%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-08 04:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.05%EV -8.88%E -5.04%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.97%EV -16.30%E -3.62%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-08 05:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.46% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.85% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.68% | 0.6% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.31% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.60% | 0.9% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.31% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.60% | 0.9% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.12% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.55% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.33% | 1.8% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.96% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.62% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42% | 2.1% | 2026-08-08 22:35 |
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