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Independiente v Platense
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Independiente (Local)
Predicción 51.77%1.93momio equitativo
EV -4.22%
Ventaja -2.28%
Kelly -4.96%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.85
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.99%51.88%51.69%54.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.621.771.791.8561.73%56.37%55.87%54.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Platense (Visitante)
Predicción 18.60%5.38momio equitativo
EV +6.77%
Ventaja +1.18%
Kelly +1.43%
Crecimiento +0.097%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.74
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.80%18.49%18.70%20.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.505.065.005.7422.22%19.76%20.00%17.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 29.63%3.38momio equitativo
EV -1.05%
Ventaja -0.314%
Kelly -0.449%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.34
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.36%29.62%29.61%30.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.903.143.153.3434.48%31.84%31.75%29.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Independiente (Local): 51.77%; Platense (Visitante): 18.60%; Empate: 29.63%. Para Platense (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.38. 9 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.74, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +6.77%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.69%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.74I 17.42%NM 16.80%EV +6.77%E +1.18%K +1.43%G +0.097% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.51%EV -6.38%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.69%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.74I 17.42%NM 16.80%EV +6.77%E +1.18%K +1.43%G +0.097% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.51%EV -6.38%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.53%EV -10.95%E -6.37%K -15.21%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV +2.30%E +0.419%K +0.512%G +0.012% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -2.24%E -0.677%K -0.972%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.53%EV -10.95%E -6.37%K -15.21%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV +2.30%E +0.419%K +0.512%G +0.012% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -2.24%E -0.677%K -0.972%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.13%EV -9.40%E -5.37%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.41I 18.48%NM 17.51%EV +0.631%E +0.117%K +0.143%G +0.001% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.36%EV -1.05%E -0.314%K -0.449%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-07 12:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.47%EV -5.77%E -3.17%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV +0.445%E +0.082%K +0.101%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.84%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.47%EV -5.77%E -3.17%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV +0.445%E +0.082%K +0.101%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.84%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.67%EV -8.36%E -4.72%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV +0.445%E +0.082%K +0.101%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.07%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-08 23:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.38%EV -10.95%E -6.37%K -15.21%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.00%EV +0.445%E +0.082%K +0.101%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-09 00:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.17%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 18.04%EV -0.485%E -0.091%K -0.112%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.79%EV -4.01%E -1.24%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-09 00:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.22%EV -7.33%E -4.09%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -1.42%E -0.267%K -0.329%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 22:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.07%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -2.35%E -0.447%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-08 23:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.04%EV -15.09%E -9.20%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.38%EV -5.14%E -1.01%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.04%EV -15.09%E -9.20%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.38%EV -5.14%E -1.01%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.09%EV -16.13%E -9.95%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.18%EV -5.14%E -1.01%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.73%EV -9.64%E -3.16%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.82%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.47%EV -6.07%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.71%EV -6.98%E -2.22%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 00:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.29%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.03I 19.88%NM 18.87%EV -6.44%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.84%EV -5.79%E -1.82%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 22:34 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.60%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -7.00%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 05:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.60%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -7.00%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 05:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.60%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -7.00%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 04:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -7.00%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -3.72%E -1.14%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.50%EV -5.77%E -3.17%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -7.00%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.76%EV -6.68%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-08 23:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.12%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -7.00%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 22:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV -9.40%E -5.37%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -7.00%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.17%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-08 17:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.01%EV -10.43%E -6.03%K -14.29%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -7.00%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.99%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.24%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.02%EV -9.79%E -2.02%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-09 00:24 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -10.72%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-08 05:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.17%EV -11.47%E -6.71%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.58%EV -10.72%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.25%EV -9.64%E -3.16%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-09 00:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.10%EV -10.43%E -6.03%K -14.29%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.42%EV -10.72%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.48%EV -14.09%E -4.86%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-08 22:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -11.65%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 10:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.55%EV -7.84%E -4.41%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.32%EV -11.65%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -6.68%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-08 04:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.13%EV -9.40%E -5.37%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.04%EV -12.58%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.83%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-09 00:23 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.70%EV -11.99%E -7.05%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.70%EV -12.58%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 29.59%EV -12.01%E -4.04%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -14.44%E -3.14%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-08 02:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.23%EV -7.84%E -4.41%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.82%EV -14.44%E -3.14%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.95%EV -6.68%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-08 05:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.99%EV -7.84%E -4.41%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.73%EV -14.44%E -3.14%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-08 04:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.05%EV -8.88%E -5.04%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.97%EV -16.30%E -3.62%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-08 05:35 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.46% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.85% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.68% | 0.6% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.31% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.60% | 0.9% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.31% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.60% | 0.9% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.12% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.55% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.33% | 1.8% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.96% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.62% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42% | 2.1% | 2026-08-08 22:35 |