The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Independiente v Gimnasia Mendoza

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 22:15 UTC

Final: Independiente 0–3 Gimnasia Mendoza

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente (Local)

Prediction 52.19%1.92fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -1.86%
Kelly -4.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.13%52.15%52.15%53.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.781.801.8560.24%56.33%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit)

Prediction 19.27%5.19fair odd
EV +0.568%
Edge +0.109%
Kelly +0.134%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 5.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.40%19.38%19.26%20.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.784.755.2222.73%20.94%21.05%19.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.54%3.50fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -0.871%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.44%28.47%28.59%29.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.273.273.4032.79%30.57%30.53%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente (Local): 52.19%; Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit): 19.27%; Draw: 28.54%. For Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.19. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.22, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.568%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.76%EV -5.01%E -2.75%K -6.11%G +0.000%5.22I 19.16%NM 18.40%EV +0.568%E +0.109%K +0.134%G +0.001%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.84%EV -4.96%E -1.49%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-30 22:10
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.66%EV -4.49%E -2.45%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 18.57%EV -0.010%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.77%EV -4.39%E -1.31%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-30 22:05
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.09%EV -7.62%E -4.30%K -9.89%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.43%EV -1.74%E -0.342%K -0.425%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.48%EV -5.81%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 21:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.16%EV -3.44%E -1.86%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.30%EV -3.67%E -0.734%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.55%EV -3.53%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-30 21:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.16%EV -3.44%E -1.86%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.30%EV -3.67%E -0.734%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.55%EV -3.53%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-30 21:55
BetAnything🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.16%EV -3.44%E -1.86%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.30%EV -3.67%E -0.734%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.55%EV -3.53%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-30 21:55
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.48%EV -6.05%E -3.36%K -7.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -3.67%E -0.734%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -5.81%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 22:10
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.48%EV -6.05%E -3.36%K -7.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -3.67%E -0.734%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -5.81%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 22:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.48%EV -6.05%E -3.36%K -7.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -3.67%E -0.734%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -5.81%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 21:55
SportsBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.76%EV -7.10%E -3.99%K -9.10%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV -3.67%E -0.734%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.81%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 22:10
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -3.44%E -1.86%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.31%EV -5.60%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 21:55
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -3.44%E -1.86%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.31%EV -5.60%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 21:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.14%EV -5.53%E -3.06%K -6.83%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -5.60%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -5.81%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 22:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.42%EV -8.66%E -4.95%K -11.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -5.60%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -2.96%E -0.871%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 22:10
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.42%EV -8.66%E -4.95%K -11.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -5.60%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -2.96%E -0.871%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 22:10
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.29%EV -6.05%E -3.36%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.61%EV -7.52%E -1.57%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -4.39%E -1.31%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 22:09
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.28%EV -9.71%E -5.61%K -13.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -7.52%E -1.57%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -4.39%E -1.31%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 21:55
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.96%EV -6.05%E -3.36%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -8.49%E -1.79%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -5.81%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 21:55
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.44%EV -8.66%E -4.95%K -11.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.32%EV -8.49%E -1.79%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.24%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 22:05
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.50%EV -9.71%E -5.61%K -13.30%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.12%EV -8.49%E -1.79%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 21:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.31%EV -5.01%E -2.75%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -9.45%E -2.01%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.82%EV -7.53%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 22:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.20%EV -10.75%E -6.29%K -15.14%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.20%EV -10.41%E -2.24%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.61%EV -10.95%E -3.51%K -5.17%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-30 21:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -6.05%E -3.36%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -11.38%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -2.96%E -0.871%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 21:55
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.41%EV -6.05%E -3.36%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -11.38%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -7.24%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 22:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.41%EV -6.05%E -3.36%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -11.38%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -7.24%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 21:44
Bet Right🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.83%EV -7.62%E -4.30%K -9.89%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -11.38%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.23%EV -7.24%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 22:10
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.70%EV -9.71%E -5.61%K -13.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.44%EV -11.38%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.52%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 21:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.05%EV -12.84%E -7.69%K -19.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -11.38%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.69%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-30 22:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.05%EV -12.84%E -7.69%K -19.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -11.38%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.69%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-30 22:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.90%EV -11.27%E -6.63%K -16.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.18%EV -11.38%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.93%EV -12.95%E -4.25%K -6.32%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-30 22:10
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -6.05%E -3.36%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -13.30%E -2.96%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -2.96%E -0.871%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 21:54
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -6.05%E -3.36%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -13.30%E -2.96%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.24%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 21:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.03%EV -9.18%E -5.28%K -12.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.12%EV -13.30%E -2.96%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.85%EV -7.24%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-30 21:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.66%EV -8.66%E -4.95%K -11.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -13.30%E -2.96%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 22:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.75%EV -13.36%E -8.05%K -20.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.46%EV -13.30%E -2.96%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.80%EV -10.10%E -3.21%K -4.70%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-30 22:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.86%EV -10.23%E -5.95%K -14.21%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.27%EV -15.23%E -3.46%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-30 21:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.43%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.76%0.9%2026-08-30 22:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.76%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.98%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.26%1.1%2026-08-30 22:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.76%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.98%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.26%1.1%2026-08-30 22:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.76%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.98%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.26%1.1%2026-08-30 22:10
Smarkets◎1.83I 54.64%NM 53.31%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.41%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.28%2.5%2026-08-30 22:10