The School of Odds
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Gimnasia Mendoza v Velez Sarsfield BA

Kickoff: 2026-04-03 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)

Prediction 23.68%4.22fair odd
EV +0.638%
Edge +0.150%
Kelly +0.196%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.40%23.64%23.65%24.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.913.904.2528.17%25.60%25.64%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit)

Prediction 43.97%2.27fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -3.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.11%44.01%44.00%45.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.092.102.1852.36%47.81%47.62%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.35%3.09fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.27%32.35%32.36%32.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.862.902.9937.04%34.94%34.48%33.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gimnasia Mendoza (Local): 23.68%; Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit): 43.97%; Draw: 32.35%. For Gimnasia Mendoza (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.22. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.638%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.40%EV +0.638%E +0.150%K +0.196%G +0.001%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.33%EV -7.67%E -3.65%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.27%EV -4.56%E -1.55%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-03 17:45
BetOnline.ag🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.40%EV +0.638%E +0.150%K +0.196%G +0.001%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.33%EV -7.67%E -3.65%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.27%EV -4.56%E -1.55%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-03 17:45
Pinnacle🎯4.14I 24.15%NM 23.34%EV -1.97%E -0.475%K -0.626%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.33%EV -4.15%E -1.90%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.32%EV -3.27%E -1.09%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-03 17:50
Fanatics🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.14%EV -2.91%E -0.711%K -0.940%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.14%EV -5.47%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.72%EV -6.18%E -2.13%K -3.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-03 17:45
BetAnything🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -2.91%E -0.711%K -0.940%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -7.67%E -3.65%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -7.80%E -2.74%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-03 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.03%EV -4.10%E -1.01%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.00%EV -6.79%E -3.20%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.96%EV -8.44%E -2.98%K -4.61%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 17:50
DraftKings🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -5.28%E -1.32%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.88%EV -5.47%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -6.18%E -2.13%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-03 17:49
FanDuel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -5.28%E -1.32%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.63%EV -5.47%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%EV -7.80%E -2.74%K -4.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 17:54
BetMGM🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.28%E -1.32%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -7.67%E -3.65%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -6.18%E -2.13%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-03 17:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.28%E -1.32%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -7.67%E -3.65%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -6.18%E -2.13%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-03 17:40
Everygame🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -5.28%E -1.32%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.21%EV -7.67%E -3.65%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -7.80%E -2.74%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-03 17:50
SportsBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.28%E -1.32%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.96%EV -7.67%E -3.65%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -9.42%E -3.36%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-03 17:55
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -5.28%E -1.32%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -9.86%E -4.81%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -6.83%E -2.37%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-03 17:40
Unibet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV -6.47%E -1.64%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.11%EV -5.91%E -2.76%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -4.56%E -1.55%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-03 17:49
Unibet (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV -6.47%E -1.64%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.11%EV -5.91%E -2.76%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -4.56%E -1.55%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-03 17:49
NordicBet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -7.65%E -1.96%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.71%EV -5.47%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.19%EV -5.53%E -1.89%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-03 17:50
Betsson🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -7.65%E -1.96%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.71%EV -5.47%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.19%EV -5.53%E -1.89%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-03 17:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -7.65%E -1.96%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.62%EV -5.47%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.34%EV -6.18%E -2.13%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 17:45
theScore Bet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -7.65%E -1.96%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.62%EV -5.47%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.34%EV -6.18%E -2.13%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 17:45
BetRivers🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -7.65%E -1.96%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.73%EV -5.91%E -2.76%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.27%EV -6.18%E -2.13%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-03 17:45
Virgin Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.93%EV -10.02%E -2.64%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.15%EV -9.42%E -4.57%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -7.80%E -2.74%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-03 17:50
LiveScore Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.93%EV -10.02%E -2.64%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.15%EV -9.42%E -4.57%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -7.80%E -2.74%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-03 17:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -10.02%E -2.64%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.14%EV -10.30%E -5.05%K -9.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -9.42%E -3.36%K -5.23%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-03 17:50
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -10.02%E -2.64%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.77%EV -9.86%E -4.81%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.62%EV -11.03%E -4.01%K -6.30%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-03 17:55
Betway🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -11.20%E -2.99%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.11%EV -5.47%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -6.83%E -2.37%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-03 17:54
Bet Right🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -11.20%E -2.99%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -7.67%E -3.65%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -6.18%E -2.13%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-03 17:45
Betclic (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.80%EV -11.20%E -2.99%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 43.97%EV -10.74%E -5.29%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.22%EV -10.39%E -3.75%K -5.87%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-03 17:45
Sky Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.71%EV -11.20%E -2.99%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.37%EV -9.86%E -4.81%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.93%EV -12.65%E -4.69%K -7.44%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-03 17:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 22.98%EV -11.20%E -2.99%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.11%EV -16.02%E -8.39%K -17.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.91%EV -12.65%E -4.69%K -7.44%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-03 17:40
Winamax (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.51%EV -12.39%E -3.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.23%EV -9.86%E -4.81%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.27%EV -6.18%E -2.13%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-03 17:45
Betr (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.51%EV -12.39%E -3.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.23%EV -9.86%E -4.81%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.27%EV -6.18%E -2.13%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-03 17:45
NetBet (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.43%EV -12.39%E -3.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.46%EV -14.26%E -7.31%K -15.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.11%EV -12.65%E -4.69%K -7.44%G +0.000%15.3%2026-04-03 17:49
Winamax (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 24.59%EV -15.94%E -4.49%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -12.06%E -6.03%K -12.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.75%EV -11.03%E -4.01%K -6.30%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-03 17:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.48%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.88%1.4%2026-04-03 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.39%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.86%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.75%1.8%2026-04-03 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.39%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.86%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.75%1.8%2026-04-03 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.39%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.86%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.75%1.8%2026-04-03 17:50
Smarkets◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.25%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.98%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.77%2.4%2026-04-03 17:55