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Gimnasia Mendoza v Deportivo Riestra

2026-09-19 17:30 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)

Prediction 43.63%2.29fair odd
EV -4.45%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -3.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.33%43.63%43.48%44.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.092.102.1951.02%47.94%47.51%45.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Deportivo Riestra (Visit)

Prediction 24.18%4.14fair odd
EV -4.49%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.49%24.18%24.34%25.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.683.723.9529.41%27.17%26.85%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.19%3.11fair odd
EV -5.05%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -2.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.25%32.19%32.18%32.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.672.832.832.9537.45%35.32%35.40%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Gimnasia Mendoza (Local): 43.63%; Deportivo Riestra (Visit): 24.18%; Draw: 32.19%. For Gimnasia Mendoza (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.29. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.19, with an expected value of -4.45%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.38%EV -4.45%E -2.03%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.42%EV -5.94%E -1.53%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.20%EV -5.05%E -1.71%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 19:15
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.58%EV -6.19%E -2.88%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -8.11%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -5.05%E -1.71%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 18:35
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.58%EV -6.19%E -2.88%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -8.11%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -5.05%E -1.71%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.35%EV -6.19%E -2.88%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.40%EV -7.63%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.25%EV -6.98%E -2.41%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 19:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 43.97%EV -7.94%E -3.76%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.49%EV -4.49%E -1.14%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.55%EV -8.27%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 18:35
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -8.37%E -3.99%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.95%E -3.60%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -9.88%E -3.53%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-06 18:35
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.33%EV -10.55%E -5.15%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.52%EV -17.79%E -5.23%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.14%EV -13.09%E -4.85%K -7.70%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-06 18:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.75%EV -12.74%E -6.37%K -12.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.00%EV -15.37%E -4.39%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.25%EV -9.88%E -3.53%K -5.49%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-06 22:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.19%EV -12.74%E -6.37%K -12.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.40%EV -17.79%E -5.23%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.41%EV -11.48%E -4.18%K -6.56%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-06 22:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.03%EV -14.48%E -7.39%K -15.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.64%EV -11.74%E -3.22%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.32%EV -14.06%E -5.27%K -8.42%G +0.000%15.9%2026-09-06 18:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.