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Gimnasia La Plata v CA Tigre BA
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Gimnasia La Plata (Local)
Predicción 35.41%2.82momio equitativo
EV -3.67%
Ventaja -1.35%
Kelly -2.14%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.72
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.57%35.56%35.36%38.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.582.622.7243.48%38.79%38.17%36.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
CA Tigre BA (Visitante)
Predicción 32.17%3.11momio equitativo
EV -1.89%
Ventaja -0.619%
Kelly -0.921%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.05
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.61%32.12%32.17%33.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.882.903.0537.04%34.71%34.48%32.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 32.42%3.08momio equitativo
EV -1.13%
Ventaja -0.369%
Kelly -0.549%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.05
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.82%32.32%32.46%33.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.882.883.0537.04%34.76%34.72%32.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Gimnasia La Plata (Local): 35.41%; CA Tigre BA (Visitante): 32.17%; Empate: 32.42%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.08. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.05, con un valor esperado de -1.13%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.57%EV -3.67%E -1.35%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.43%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -7.61%E -2.67%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-04 08:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.57%EV -3.67%E -1.35%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.43%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -7.61%E -2.67%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.26%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.48%EV -5.02%E -1.71%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 02:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.26%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.48%EV -5.02%E -1.71%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 02:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.26%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.48%EV -5.02%E -1.71%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 13:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.17%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.97%EV -4.46%E -1.50%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.86%EV -6.31%E -2.18%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 07:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.69I 37.17%NM 35.41%EV -4.74%E -1.76%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.07%EV -4.46%E -1.50%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.51%EV -5.02%E -1.71%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 16:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -5.99%E -2.07%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 05:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.56%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -5.99%E -2.07%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 05:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -5.99%E -2.07%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 17:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -5.99%E -2.07%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.29%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -6.64%E -2.30%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-01 05:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.95%EV -6.07%E -2.08%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.85%EV -7.93%E -2.79%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-04 06:38 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.17%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -8.32%E -2.92%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -5.99%E -2.07%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-03 14:24 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.17%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -7.61%E -2.67%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-03 17:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -9.93%E -3.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -4.37%E -1.48%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-03 13:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -6.86%E -2.61%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.31%EV -7.36%E -2.55%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.31%EV -6.64%E -2.30%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-03 09:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -7.21%E -2.75%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.19%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.19%EV -5.99%E -2.07%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 06:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -7.21%E -2.75%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -9.93%E -3.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -2.75%E -0.916%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-03 13:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -5.99%E -2.07%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-03 09:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -7.36%E -2.55%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -6.64%E -2.30%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-01 01:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -8.32%E -2.92%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -7.61%E -2.67%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -9.93%E -3.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -6.64%E -2.30%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-02 23:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.20%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -9.93%E -3.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.11%EV -7.61%E -2.67%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-02 23:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -9.93%E -3.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -9.23%E -3.30%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-03 09:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.89%EV -11.46%E -4.59%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -11.54%E -4.20%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.48%EV -7.61%E -2.67%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-03 17:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -11.46%E -4.59%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -11.54%E -4.20%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -10.85%E -3.95%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-03 09:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -11.46%E -4.59%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -13.15%E -4.87%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -9.23%E -3.30%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-03 17:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.27%EV -11.46%E -4.59%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.07%EV -11.54%E -4.20%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.66%EV -12.47%E -4.62%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-01 14:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 36.13%EV -12.53%E -5.07%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 31.65%EV -9.29%E -3.29%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 32.22%EV -10.20%E -3.68%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-03 17:33 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -13.24%E -5.40%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -1.89%E -0.619%K -0.921%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -1.13%E -0.369%K -0.549%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 07:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -13.24%E -5.40%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -1.89%E -0.619%K -0.921%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -1.13%E -0.369%K -0.549%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 07:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.26%EV -15.01%E -6.25%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -4.37%E -1.48%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-01 07:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.63%EV -15.01%E -6.25%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.40%EV -9.93%E -3.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.97%EV -10.85%E -3.95%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-09-03 17:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 38.07%EV -17.49%E -7.50%K -13.15%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -7.36%E -2.55%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.13%EV -7.61%E -2.67%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-01 07:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 38.07%EV -17.49%E -7.50%K -13.15%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -7.36%E -2.55%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.13%EV -7.61%E -2.67%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-01 07:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.05%EV -18.55%E -8.06%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.70%EV -8.32%E -2.92%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.25%EV -9.23%E -3.30%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-09-01 07:50 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.27% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36% | 2.0% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.51% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.23% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.26% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 08:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.51% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.23% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.26% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 08:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.51% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.23% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.26% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.41% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.16% | 6.1% | 2026-09-04 07:05 |