Language:English
Defensa y Justicia v San Lorenzo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Defensa y Justicia (Local)
Prediction 46.82%2.14fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -3.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.45%46.95%46.83%49.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.971.982.0554.05%50.82%50.51%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
San Lorenzo (Visit)
Prediction 22.85%4.38fair odd
EV +4.90%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +1.36%
Growth +0.067%
assuming max odds 4.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.68%22.66%22.85%24.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.094.104.5927.03%24.47%24.39%21.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.33%3.30fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -0.729%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.62%30.39%30.32%31.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.033.053.2235.71%33.05%32.79%31.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Defensa y Justicia (Local): 46.82%; San Lorenzo (Visit): 22.85%; Draw: 30.33%. For San Lorenzo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.38. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.59, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.90%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.97%EV -7.30%E -3.68%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 4.59I 21.79%NM 20.69%EV +4.90%E +1.07%K +1.36%G +0.067% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.34%EV -8.11%E -2.68%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 17:17 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.54%EV -6.83%E -3.43%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.46%EV +2.84%E +0.631%K +0.811%G +0.023% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 30.00%EV -2.35%E -0.729%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-03 17:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.54%EV -6.83%E -3.43%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.46%EV +2.84%E +0.631%K +0.811%G +0.023% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 30.00%EV -2.35%E -0.729%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-03 17:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.54%EV -6.83%E -3.43%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.46%EV +2.84%E +0.631%K +0.811%G +0.023% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 30.00%EV -2.35%E -0.729%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-03 17:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -10.57%E -5.54%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV +2.84%E +0.631%K +0.811%G +0.023% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.19%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 17:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.98%EV -9.17%E -4.73%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV +2.84%E +0.631%K +0.811%G +0.023% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.34%EV -9.93%E -3.34%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-03 17:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.41%EV -10.11%E -5.26%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.12%EV +0.554%E +0.126%K +0.163%G +0.001% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -7.50%E -2.46%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-03 17:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.39%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -1.73%E -0.403%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 17:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.33%EV -4.49%E -2.20%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 4.29I 23.31%NM 22.50%EV -1.96%E -0.457%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.17%EV -2.95%E -0.923%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-03 17:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -4.02%E -0.956%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 17:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -4.02%E -0.956%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-03 17:28 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.85%EV -12.45%E -6.66%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -4.02%E -0.956%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -12.05%E -4.16%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-03 17:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.85%EV -12.45%E -6.66%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -4.02%E -0.956%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -12.05%E -4.16%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-03 17:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.39%EV -4.49%E -2.20%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -6.30%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-03 16:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.11%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.30%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.91%EV -4.47%E -1.42%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 17:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.64%EV -5.42%E -2.68%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.30%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 17:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.64%EV -5.42%E -2.68%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.30%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 17:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.92%EV -4.49%E -2.20%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -6.30%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -9.02%E -3.01%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 17:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.92%EV -4.49%E -2.20%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -6.30%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -9.02%E -3.01%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 17:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.13%EV -7.30%E -3.68%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.30%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.10%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-03 17:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.59%E -2.15%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -9.02%E -3.01%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-03 17:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -8.59%E -2.15%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-03 17:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.67%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -8.59%E -2.15%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -12.05%E -4.16%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-03 17:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -8.59%E -2.15%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -9.02%E -3.01%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-03 17:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.61%EV -13.38%E -7.23%K -15.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.02%EV -8.59%E -2.15%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.37%EV -12.05%E -4.16%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-10-03 17:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -4.02%E -1.96%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -10.87%E -2.79%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -7.50%E -2.46%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-03 16:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.66%EV -8.23%E -4.20%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.95%EV -10.87%E -2.79%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.40%EV -13.57%E -4.76%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-03 17:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.66%EV -8.23%E -4.20%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.95%EV -10.87%E -2.79%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.40%EV -13.57%E -4.76%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-03 17:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 45.78%EV -10.11%E -5.26%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.83%EV -12.02%E -3.12%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.39%EV -15.09%E -5.39%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-10-03 17:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.83%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -13.16%E -3.46%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%EV -7.50%E -2.46%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-03 17:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.08%EV -7.30%E -3.68%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.01%EV -13.16%E -3.46%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -7.50%E -2.46%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-03 16:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.25%EV -11.04%E -5.81%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.13%EV -13.16%E -3.46%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 30.62%EV -12.96%E -4.52%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-10-03 17:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -14.30%E -3.81%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-03 17:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -14.30%E -3.81%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -9.02%E -3.01%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-03 17:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.16%EV -11.04%E -5.81%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.39%EV -14.30%E -3.81%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.45%EV -12.66%E -4.40%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-10-03 17:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 46.79%EV -12.91%E -6.94%K -15.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.21%EV -14.30%E -3.81%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.01%EV -12.05%E -4.16%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-10-03 17:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.06%EV -9.17%E -4.73%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -15.44%E -4.17%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -9.02%E -3.01%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-03 16:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98% | 1.1% | 2026-10-03 17:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98% | 1.1% | 2026-10-03 17:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98% | 1.1% | 2026-10-03 17:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.60% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36% | 2.0% | 2026-10-03 17:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.31% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.11% | 2.0% | 2026-10-03 17:35 |