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Defensa y Justicia v San Lorenzo

2026-10-03 17:45 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Defensa y Justicia (Local)

Prediction 41.93%2.38fair odd
EV -4.82%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -3.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.20%41.93%41.93%42.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.192.202.2747.62%45.63%45.45%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Lorenzo (Visit)

Prediction 27.32%3.66fair odd
EV -5.49%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -2.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.03%27.32%27.32%27.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.353.403.4632.26%29.84%29.41%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.75%3.25fair odd
EV -4.97%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -2.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.26%30.75%30.75%30.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.003.023.0935.71%33.37%33.11%32.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Defensa y Justicia (Local): 41.93%; San Lorenzo (Visit): 27.32%; Draw: 30.75%. For Defensa y Justicia (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.38. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.27, with an expected value of -4.82%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.83%EV -4.82%E -2.12%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.44%EV -5.49%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.73%EV -4.97%E -1.61%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-13 17:51
Marathon Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -6.50%E -2.91%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.13%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.70%EV -6.51%E -2.14%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 17:45
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -7.75%E -3.52%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -5.76%E -1.67%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -6.20%E -2.03%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 16:54
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.75%E -3.52%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -7.13%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.74%E -2.58%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-13 16:55
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -9.85%E -4.58%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.74%E -2.58%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-13 16:55
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.20%EV -11.95%E -5.69%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -15.32%E -4.94%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -13.89%E -4.96%K -7.72%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-13 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.