A Escola das Oddsodds.school
Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)
+ Novo modeloTodos os modelos

Defensa y Justicia v San Lorenzo

Início: 2026-10-03 17:45 UTC

Final: Defensa y Justicia 3–0 San Lorenzo

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

37 casas de apostas (16 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Defensa y Justicia (Local)

Previsão 46.82%2.14odd justa
EV -4.02%
Vantagem -1.96%
Kelly -3.83%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.05

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
45.45%46.95%46.83%49.01%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.851.971.982.0554.05%50.82%50.51%48.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

San Lorenzo (Visitante)

Previsão 22.85%4.38odd justa
EV +4.90%
Vantagem +1.07%
Kelly +1.36%
Crescimento +0.067%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.59

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
20.68%22.66%22.85%24.48%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.704.094.104.5927.03%24.47%24.39%21.79%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 30.33%3.30odd justa
EV -2.35%
Vantagem -0.729%
Kelly -1.06%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.22

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
29.62%30.39%30.32%31.50%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.803.033.053.2235.71%33.05%32.79%31.06%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Defensa y Justicia (Local): 46.82%; San Lorenzo (Visitante): 22.85%; Empate: 30.33%. Para San Lorenzo (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.38. 7 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.59, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +4.90%.

Odds das casas de apostas (37 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.97%EV -7.30%E -3.68%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.59I 21.79%NM 20.69%EV +4.90%E +1.07%K +1.36%G +0.067%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.34%EV -8.11%E -2.68%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 17:17
LowVig.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.54%EV -6.83%E -3.43%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.46%EV +2.84%E +0.631%K +0.811%G +0.023%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.00%EV -2.35%E -0.729%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-03 17:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.54%EV -6.83%E -3.43%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.46%EV +2.84%E +0.631%K +0.811%G +0.023%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.00%EV -2.35%E -0.729%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-03 17:20
BetAnything🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.54%EV -6.83%E -3.43%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.46%EV +2.84%E +0.631%K +0.811%G +0.023%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.00%EV -2.35%E -0.729%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-03 17:20
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -10.57%E -5.54%K -11.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV +2.84%E +0.631%K +0.811%G +0.023%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.19%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-03 17:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.98%EV -9.17%E -4.73%K -9.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV +2.84%E +0.631%K +0.811%G +0.023%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.34%EV -9.93%E -3.34%K -5.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-03 17:20
SportsBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.41%EV -10.11%E -5.26%K -10.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.12%EV +0.554%E +0.126%K +0.163%G +0.001%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -7.50%E -2.46%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 17:15
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.39%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -1.73%E -0.403%K -0.525%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-03 17:15
Pinnacle🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.33%EV -4.49%E -2.20%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.50%EV -1.96%E -0.457%K -0.596%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.17%EV -2.95%E -0.923%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-03 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -4.02%E -0.956%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-03 17:15
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -4.02%E -0.956%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-03 17:28
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.85%EV -12.45%E -6.66%K -14.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -4.02%E -0.956%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -12.05%E -4.16%K -6.34%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 17:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.85%EV -12.45%E -6.66%K -14.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -4.02%E -0.956%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -12.05%E -4.16%K -6.34%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 17:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.39%EV -4.49%E -2.20%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -6.30%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-03 16:25
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.11%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.30%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.91%EV -4.47%E -1.42%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-03 17:39
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.64%EV -5.42%E -2.68%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.30%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-03 17:39
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.64%EV -5.42%E -2.68%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.30%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-03 17:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.92%EV -4.49%E -2.20%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -6.30%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -9.02%E -3.01%K -4.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-03 17:15
Unibet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.92%EV -4.49%E -2.20%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -6.30%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -9.02%E -3.01%K -4.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-03 17:15
BetMGM🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.13%EV -7.30%E -3.68%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.30%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.10%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-03 17:14
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.59%E -2.15%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -9.02%E -3.01%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-03 17:40
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -8.59%E -2.15%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-03 17:40
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.67%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -8.59%E -2.15%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -12.05%E -4.16%K -6.34%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-03 17:15
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -8.70%E -4.46%K -9.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -8.59%E -2.15%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -9.02%E -3.01%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-03 17:40
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.61%EV -13.38%E -7.23%K -15.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.02%EV -8.59%E -2.15%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.37%EV -12.05%E -4.16%K -6.34%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-03 17:40
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -4.02%E -1.96%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -10.87%E -2.79%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -7.50%E -2.46%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-03 16:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.66%EV -8.23%E -4.20%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.95%EV -10.87%E -2.79%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.40%EV -13.57%E -4.76%K -7.33%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-03 17:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.66%EV -8.23%E -4.20%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.95%EV -10.87%E -2.79%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.40%EV -13.57%E -4.76%K -7.33%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-03 17:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.78%EV -10.11%E -5.26%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.83%EV -12.02%E -3.12%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.39%EV -15.09%E -5.39%K -8.38%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-03 17:15
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.83%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -13.16%E -3.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%EV -7.50%E -2.46%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-03 17:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.08%EV -7.30%E -3.68%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.01%EV -13.16%E -3.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -7.50%E -2.46%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-03 16:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.25%EV -11.04%E -5.81%K -12.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.13%EV -13.16%E -3.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.62%EV -12.96%E -4.52%K -6.93%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-03 17:40
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -14.30%E -3.81%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-03 17:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -14.30%E -3.81%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -9.02%E -3.01%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-03 17:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.16%EV -11.04%E -5.81%K -12.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.39%EV -14.30%E -3.81%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.45%EV -12.66%E -4.40%K -6.73%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-03 17:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 46.79%EV -12.91%E -6.94%K -15.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.21%EV -14.30%E -3.81%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.01%EV -12.05%E -4.16%K -6.34%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-03 17:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.06%EV -9.17%E -4.73%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -15.44%E -4.17%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -9.02%E -3.01%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 16:25
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98%1.1%2026-10-03 17:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98%1.1%2026-10-03 17:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98%1.1%2026-10-03 17:30
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.60%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%2.0%2026-10-03 17:20
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.31%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.11%2.0%2026-10-03 17:35