Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Central Córdoba v Independiente

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 20:00 UTC

Final: Central Córdoba 0–1 Independiente

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Central Córdoba (Local)

Prediction 30.29%3.30fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -0.958%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.41%30.37%30.20%31.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.063.103.2035.09%32.72%32.26%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente (Visit)

Prediction 38.59%2.59fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -0.628%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.04%38.47%38.55%39.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.402.402.5543.48%41.62%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.12%3.21fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -0.625%
Kelly -0.916%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.08%31.15%31.25%32.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.963.003.1537.04%33.82%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Central Córdoba (Local): 30.29%; Independiente (Visit): 38.59%; Draw: 31.12%. For Independiente (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -1.60%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.25%EV -3.07%E -0.958%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.03%EV -4.30%E -1.73%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.73%EV -1.97%E -0.625%K -0.916%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-06 19:50
LowVig.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.19%EV -3.07%E -0.958%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.95%EV -4.30%E -1.73%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.86%EV -2.59%E -0.828%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-06 19:45
BetOnline.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.19%EV -3.07%E -0.958%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.95%EV -4.30%E -1.73%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.86%EV -2.59%E -0.828%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-06 19:45
BetAnything🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.19%EV -3.07%E -0.958%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.95%EV -4.30%E -1.73%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.86%EV -2.59%E -0.828%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-06 19:45
NordicBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -3.07%E -0.958%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.02%EV -6.62%E -2.73%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.47%EV -6.64%E -2.21%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 19:35
Betsson🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -3.07%E -0.958%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.02%EV -6.62%E -2.73%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.47%EV -6.64%E -2.21%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 19:35
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -3.07%E -0.958%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -7.39%E -3.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -6.64%E -2.21%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 19:55
DraftKings🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -4.58%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.43%EV -7.39%E -3.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -3.53%E -1.14%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 19:54
1xBet🎯3.13I 31.95%NM 30.35%EV -5.19%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.61%EV -5.07%E -2.06%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.04%EV -4.77%E -1.56%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 19:54
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -6.10%E -1.97%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -6.64%E -2.21%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 19:40
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -6.10%E -1.97%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -5.46%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -6.64%E -2.21%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 19:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -6.10%E -1.97%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -5.46%E -2.23%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -6.64%E -2.21%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 19:50
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -6.10%E -1.97%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -9.75%E -3.36%K -5.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 19:55
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -6.10%E -1.97%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -9.75%E -3.36%K -5.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 19:55
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -6.10%E -1.97%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -7.39%E -3.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -6.64%E -2.21%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 19:54
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -6.10%E -1.97%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -7.39%E -3.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -8.19%E -2.78%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 19:35
theScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -6.10%E -1.97%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -7.39%E -3.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -8.19%E -2.78%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 19:55
PlayUp🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -6.10%E -1.97%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -7.39%E -3.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -9.75%E -3.36%K -5.13%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-06 19:35
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.10%E -1.97%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -11.25%E -4.89%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.64%E -2.21%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 19:40
Bet Right🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.10%E -1.97%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -11.25%E -4.89%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.64%E -2.21%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 19:40
Marathon Bet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.28%EV -6.70%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.53%EV -6.62%E -2.73%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.19%EV -6.95%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 19:53
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.13%EV -7.61%E -2.50%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.05%EV -4.30%E -1.73%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.82%EV -12.86%E -4.59%K -7.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 19:30
Betr (AU)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -7.61%E -2.50%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -11.25%E -4.89%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.77%EV -8.19%E -2.78%K -4.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 19:40
Codere (IT)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -9.13%E -3.04%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -1.60%E -0.628%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -6.64%E -2.21%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 19:30
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -9.13%E -3.04%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -7.39%E -3.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -3.53%E -1.14%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 19:50
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -9.13%E -3.04%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.39%E -3.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -6.64%E -2.21%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 19:49
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -9.13%E -3.04%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -8.16%E -3.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -6.64%E -2.21%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 19:35
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -9.13%E -3.04%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.17%EV -8.16%E -3.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.54%EV -10.37%E -3.60%K -5.52%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 19:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -9.13%E -3.04%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.17%EV -8.16%E -3.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.54%EV -10.37%E -3.60%K -5.52%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 19:45
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.13%E -3.04%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -11.25%E -4.89%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -6.64%E -2.21%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 19:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.46%EV -10.64%E -3.61%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -11.25%E -4.89%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.46%EV -8.19%E -2.78%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 19:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 30.19%EV -11.55%E -3.95%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.33%EV -11.25%E -4.89%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.48%EV -12.86%E -4.59%K -7.15%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-06 19:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -12.15%E -4.19%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.23%EV -8.16%E -3.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.22%EV -14.42%E -5.24%K -8.24%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-06 19:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -12.15%E -4.19%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.23%EV -8.16%E -3.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.22%EV -14.42%E -5.24%K -8.24%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-06 19:55
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.33%EV -12.15%E -4.19%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.25%EV -11.25%E -4.89%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.42%EV -12.86%E -4.59%K -7.15%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-06 19:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.37%EV -12.76%E -4.43%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.23%EV -9.32%E -3.97%K -6.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.40%EV -15.97%E -5.92%K -9.40%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-06 19:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.12%EV -13.06%E -4.55%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.53%EV -8.16%E -3.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.34%EV -11.31%E -3.97%K -6.11%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-06 19:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.87%EV -13.67%E -4.80%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.26%EV -11.25%E -4.89%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.87%EV -11.31%E -3.97%K -6.11%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-06 19:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.25I 30.77%NM 30.47%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44%1.0%2026-09-06 19:55
Smarkets3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.27%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.35%1.3%2026-09-06 19:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.27%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.35%1.3%2026-09-06 19:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.27%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.35%1.3%2026-09-06 19:50
Kalshi3.12I 32.05%NM 31.07%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.07%3.2%2026-09-06 19:40