The School of Odds
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Boca Juniors v Gimnasia Mendoza

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 20:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boca Juniors (Local)

Prediction 62.79%1.59fair odd
EV -4.56%
Edge -3.00%
Kelly -8.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.32%62.78%62.64%64.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.471.481.5274.63%68.01%67.57%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit)

Prediction 12.25%8.17fair odd
EV +4.95%
Edge +0.577%
Kelly +0.654%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 8.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.23%12.32%12.34%14.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.567.508.5716.00%13.24%13.33%11.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.96%4.01fair odd
EV -0.147%
Edge -0.037%
Kelly -0.049%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.64%24.90%25.02%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.703.754.0030.77%27.02%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boca Juniors (Local): 62.79%; Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit): 12.25%; Draw: 24.96%. For Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.95%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.31%EV -4.56%E -3.00%K -8.76%G +0.000%8.57I 11.67%NM 11.23%EV +4.95%E +0.577%K +0.654%G +0.032%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.46%EV -5.64%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-28 20:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.53%EV -5.81%E -3.88%K -11.63%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -2.03%E -0.254%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.56%EV -3.14%E -0.810%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-28 05:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.53%EV -5.81%E -3.88%K -11.63%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -2.03%E -0.254%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.56%EV -3.14%E -0.810%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-28 05:24
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -7.07%E -4.78%K -14.73%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -2.03%E -0.254%K -0.290%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -0.147%E -0.037%K -0.049%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-28 14:20
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.76%EV -6.44%E -4.32%K -13.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.88%EV -2.03%E -0.254%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.36%EV -2.64%E -0.678%K -0.912%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 20:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.76%EV -6.44%E -4.32%K -13.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.88%EV -2.03%E -0.254%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.36%EV -2.64%E -0.678%K -0.912%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 20:40
DraftKings🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.99%EV -5.81%E -3.88%K -11.63%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -2.03%E -0.254%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.20%EV -6.39%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 20:34
Bovada🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.30%EV -7.07%E -4.78%K -14.73%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -2.03%E -0.254%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.98%EV -6.39%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 20:38
BetAnything🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.30%EV -7.07%E -4.78%K -14.73%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -2.03%E -0.254%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.98%EV -6.39%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 20:35
SportsBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.81%EV -7.70%E -5.24%K -16.38%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV -2.03%E -0.254%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -10.13%E -2.81%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-28 20:39
Bet Right🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.97%EV -8.33%E -5.70%K -18.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -2.03%E -0.254%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -10.13%E -2.81%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 06:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.65%EV -6.44%E -4.32%K -13.15%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.12%EV -5.71%E -0.741%K -0.852%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -7.64%E -2.06%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 20:30
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.86%EV -4.56%E -3.00%K -8.76%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.37%EV -6.93%E -0.912%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -8.88%E -2.43%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 20:29
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.86%EV -4.56%E -3.00%K -8.76%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.37%EV -6.93%E -0.912%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -8.88%E -2.43%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 20:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.11%EV -5.81%E -3.88%K -11.63%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.62%EV -8.16%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -2.64%E -0.678%K -0.912%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 18:14
BetRivers🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.61%EV -7.07%E -4.78%K -14.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.55%EV -8.16%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -1.40%E -0.353%K -0.473%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 20:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.71%EV -5.81%E -3.88%K -11.63%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -8.16%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.14%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 20:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.38%EV -7.70%E -5.24%K -16.38%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -8.16%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -3.89%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-28 20:39
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.86%EV -5.81%E -3.88%K -11.63%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -8.16%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.13%E -2.81%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 05:25
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.60%EV -7.07%E -4.78%K -14.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -8.16%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -7.64%E -2.06%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-28 20:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.61%EV -10.21%E -7.14%K -23.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -8.16%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.26%EV -6.39%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 20:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.61%EV -10.21%E -7.14%K -23.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -8.16%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.26%EV -6.39%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 20:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.20%EV -8.95%E -6.17%K -19.90%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -8.16%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.77%EV -12.63%E -3.61%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-28 06:34
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.37%EV -9.58%E -6.65%K -21.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -8.16%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -12.63%E -3.61%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-28 20:39
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.44%EV -5.81%E -3.88%K -11.63%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.92%EV -11.22%E -1.55%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -5.14%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 18:14
NetBet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 62.71%EV -12.72%E -9.15%K -32.62%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.02%EV -11.22%E -1.55%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.27%EV -13.88%E -4.02%K -5.66%G +0.000%14.7%2026-02-28 20:34
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.38%EV -9.58%E -6.65%K -21.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.63%EV -14.28%E -2.04%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.00%EV -15.13%E -4.45%K -6.30%G +0.000%13.1%2026-02-28 20:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 62.35%EV -15.86%E -11.84%K -46.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 11.94%EV -14.28%E -2.04%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.71%EV -18.87%E -5.81%K -8.39%G +0.000%19.7%2026-02-28 20:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.35%EV -8.33%E -5.70%K -18.10%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -20.40%E -3.14%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.64%EV -3.89%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 20:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.32%EV -9.58%E -6.65%K -21.78%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.36%EV -20.40%E -3.14%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.32%EV -17.62%E -5.34%K -7.66%G +0.000%15.1%2026-02-28 20:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 61.50%EV -10.21%E -7.14%K -23.74%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.07%EV -23.46%E -3.75%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.43%EV -10.13%E -2.81%K -3.90%G +0.000%13.7%2026-02-28 20:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.55I 64.52%NM 64.01%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.55%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.44%0.8%2026-02-28 20:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.86%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.76%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.38%1.0%2026-02-28 20:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.86%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.76%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.38%1.0%2026-02-28 20:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.86%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.76%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.38%1.0%2026-02-28 20:35
Smarkets◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.65%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.72%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.63%1.4%2026-02-28 20:40