Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barracas Central v Rosario Central

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 23:15 UTC

Final: Barracas Central 0–1 Rosario Central

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barracas Central (Local)

Prediction 36.11%2.77fair odd
EV +4.72%
Edge +1.63%
Kelly +2.48%
Growth +0.117%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.11%36.14%35.96%37.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.562.602.9042.02%39.06%38.46%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rosario Central (Visit)

Prediction 30.44%3.29fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.423%
Kelly -0.612%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.41%30.45%30.55%32.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.033.053.2435.09%32.99%32.79%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.45%2.99fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.681%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.45%33.41%33.49%34.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.772.762.9338.46%36.05%36.23%34.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barracas Central (Local): 36.11%; Rosario Central (Visit): 30.44%; Draw: 33.45%. For Barracas Central (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.72%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.11%EV +4.72%E +1.63%K +2.48%G +0.117%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.22%EV -9.29%E -3.12%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.67%EV -7.35%E -2.65%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-16 23:09
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.70%EV -4.31%E -1.63%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -5.63%E -1.82%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -6.34%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 23:00
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.70%EV -4.31%E -1.63%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -5.63%E -1.82%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -6.34%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 23:10
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.61%EV -4.31%E -1.63%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.94%EV -7.15%E -2.35%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.46%EV -5.67%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 23:10
Betsson🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.61%EV -4.31%E -1.63%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.94%EV -7.15%E -2.35%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.46%EV -5.67%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 23:09
Pinnacle🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.83%EV -5.03%E -1.91%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.89%EV -1.37%E -0.423%K -0.612%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.28%EV -2.66%E -0.916%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-16 23:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.70%EV -5.03%E -1.91%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.35%EV -3.20%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.94%EV -2.00%E -0.681%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-16 23:08
BetOnline.ag🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.70%EV -5.03%E -1.91%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.35%EV -3.20%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.94%EV -2.00%E -0.681%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-16 23:09
BetAnything🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.70%EV -5.03%E -1.91%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.35%EV -3.20%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.94%EV -2.00%E -0.681%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-16 23:10
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.74%EV -5.39%E -2.06%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -5.63%E -1.82%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -8.02%E -2.91%K -4.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 23:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -5.39%E -2.06%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -8.68%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -6.34%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 23:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 35.75%EV -5.75%E -2.20%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.69%EV -7.46%E -2.45%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.56%EV -7.01%E -2.52%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 23:09
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -8.68%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -3.00%E -1.03%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 22:44
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -7.15%E -2.35%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.34%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-16 23:08
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -5.63%E -1.82%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.02%E -2.91%K -4.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 23:10
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -5.63%E -1.82%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.02%E -2.91%K -4.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 23:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -5.63%E -1.82%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.02%E -2.91%K -4.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 22:57
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -8.68%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -6.34%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-16 23:10
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.74%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -7.15%E -2.35%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.02%E -2.91%K -4.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-16 23:00
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -8.68%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -8.02%E -2.91%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 23:09
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -7.92%E -3.11%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.11%E -1.30%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -4.67%E -1.64%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 22:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.11%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -7.15%E -2.35%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.53%EV -3.67%E -1.27%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 23:04
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.11%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -7.15%E -2.35%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.53%EV -3.67%E -1.27%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 23:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 35.49%EV -9.00%E -3.57%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.11%EV -9.59%E -3.23%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -13.03%E -5.01%K -8.15%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-16 23:08
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -9.72%E -3.89%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -5.63%E -1.82%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -8.02%E -2.91%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-16 23:10
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -9.72%E -3.89%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.68%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.34%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-16 23:09
BetRivers🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -9.72%E -3.89%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.68%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.34%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-16 23:04
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.65%EV -9.72%E -3.89%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -7.15%E -2.35%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -8.02%E -2.91%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-16 23:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.28%EV -9.72%E -3.89%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -10.20%E -3.46%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -8.02%E -2.91%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-16 23:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.72%E -3.89%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.68%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-16 23:10
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.55%EV -9.72%E -3.89%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -11.72%E -4.04%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -12.03%E -4.57%K -7.38%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-16 22:59
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.51%EV -9.72%E -3.89%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -11.72%E -4.04%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.88%EV -12.36%E -4.72%K -7.63%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-16 23:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -11.53%E -4.71%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -11.72%E -4.04%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-16 23:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 36.33%EV -12.61%E -5.21%K -8.88%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.11%EV -11.11%E -3.81%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.56%EV -12.36%E -4.72%K -7.63%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-16 23:08
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.37%EV -13.34%E -5.56%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.41%EV -7.15%E -2.35%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.22%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 23:09
LiveScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.73%EV -13.34%E -5.56%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.61%EV -12.33%E -4.28%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.65%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-16 23:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.73%EV -13.34%E -5.56%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.61%EV -12.33%E -4.28%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.65%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-16 23:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.81%EV -14.06%E -5.91%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.74%EV -13.24%E -4.65%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.45%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-16 23:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.80%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.16%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.04%0.5%2026-08-16 23:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.80%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.16%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.04%0.5%2026-08-16 23:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.80%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.16%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.04%0.5%2026-08-16 23:10
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 35.63%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.67%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.70%0.9%2026-08-16 23:10
Smarkets2.84I 35.21%NM 34.80%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.80%1.2%2026-08-16 23:10

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