The School of Odds
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Barracas Central v Rosario Central

2026-08-16 23:15 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barracas Central (Local)

Prediction 27.16%3.68fair odd
EV -3.58%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.10%27.16%27.19%28.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.323.303.5533.33%30.11%30.30%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rosario Central (Visit)

Prediction 41.23%2.43fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -2.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.25%41.23%40.97%42.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.212.3348.78%45.64%45.25%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.61%3.16fair odd
EV -3.60%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.62%31.61%31.84%32.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.872.903.0537.04%34.84%34.48%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Barracas Central (Local): 27.16%; Rosario Central (Visit): 41.23%; Draw: 31.61%. For Barracas Central (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.55, with an expected value of -3.58%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Codere (IT)3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -3.58%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.83%EV -8.46%E -3.81%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.02%EV -8.34%E -2.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-02 18:55
1xBet3.48I 28.74%NM 27.28%EV -5.48%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.75%EV -3.93%E -1.69%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.97%EV -6.13%E -2.06%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 19:45
Bovada3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -6.30%E -1.83%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.16%E -2.24%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.76%E -2.29%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-02 23:09
Marathon Bet3.42I 29.24%NM 27.29%EV -7.11%E -2.08%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.75%EV -5.58%E -2.43%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.96%EV -7.71%E -2.64%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 19:39
SportsBet3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -9.01%E -2.69%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -7.23%E -3.21%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -3.60%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 18:59
FanDuel3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -10.37%E -3.14%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.23%E -3.21%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -5.18%E -1.73%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-02 18:59
Unibet (FR)3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -10.37%E -3.14%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.42%EV -13.41%E -6.39%K -12.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.22%EV -14.66%E -5.43%K -8.62%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-02 18:54
Betclic (FR)3.30I 30.30%NM 26.10%EV -10.37%E -3.14%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.01%EV -15.47%E -7.55%K -14.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.90%EV -14.66%E -5.43%K -8.62%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-02 18:54
Paddy Power3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -11.73%E -3.61%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -9.29%E -4.22%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -8.34%E -2.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-02 19:00
Winamax (DE)3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -11.73%E -3.61%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.73%EV -13.41%E -6.39%K -12.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.30%EV -11.50%E -4.11%K -6.39%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-02 18:55
Winamax (FR)3.20I 31.25%NM 26.85%EV -13.09%E -4.09%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.91%EV -15.47%E -7.55%K -14.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.24%EV -13.08%E -4.76%K -7.48%G +0.000%16.4%2026-08-02 18:55
Sky Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -18.52%E -6.17%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.25%EV -11.35%E -5.28%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.91%EV -11.50%E -4.11%K -6.39%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-02 19:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:55