The School of Odds
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Atlético Tucuman v Sarmiento de Junin

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 17:47 UTC

Final: Atlético Tucuman 1–2 Sarmiento de Junin

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Tucuman (Local)

Prediction 51.28%1.95fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -2.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.21%51.27%51.25%52.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.801.801.9059.52%55.55%55.56%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sarmiento de Junin (Visit)

Prediction 18.99%5.27fair odd
EV +9.58%
Edge +1.66%
Kelly +2.01%
Growth +0.192%

assuming max odds 5.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.71%18.98%19.05%20.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.354.904.905.7722.99%20.41%20.41%17.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.73%3.36fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.571%
Kelly -0.819%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.28%29.75%29.70%31.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.133.153.3035.09%31.96%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlético Tucuman (Local): 51.28%; Sarmiento de Junin (Visit): 18.99%; Draw: 29.73%. For Sarmiento de Junin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.27. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.58%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.68%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.43%G +0.000%5.77I 17.33%NM 16.71%EV +9.58%E +1.66%K +2.01%G +0.192%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.61%EV -6.34%E -2.01%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-08 17:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.05%EV -5.14%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.67%EV +3.50%E +0.642%K +0.787%G +0.028%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.28%EV -5.45%E -1.71%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-08 17:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.05%EV -5.14%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.67%EV +3.50%E +0.642%K +0.787%G +0.028%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.28%EV -5.45%E -1.71%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-08 17:39
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.67%EV -9.24%E -5.22%K -12.00%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV +2.55%E +0.472%K +0.580%G +0.015%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.07%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 17:33
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.08%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.63%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.69%EV +0.652%E +0.123%K +0.152%G +0.001%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 17:35
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.07%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.43%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -0.298%E -0.057%K -0.070%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 17:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.25%EV -7.19%E -3.97%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.19%EV -1.25%E -0.240%K -0.297%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-08 17:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.72%EV -8.73%E -4.90%K -11.19%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -3.15%E -0.617%K -0.767%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -3.37%E -1.04%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 17:25
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.72%EV -8.73%E -4.90%K -11.19%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -3.15%E -0.617%K -0.767%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -3.37%E -1.04%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 17:25
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.09%EV -5.65%E -3.07%K -6.73%G +0.000%5.08I 19.69%NM 18.87%EV -3.53%E -0.694%K -0.864%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.04%EV -1.88%E -0.571%K -0.819%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-08 17:38
Unibet (UK)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.47%EV -5.65%E -3.07%K -6.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -5.05%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.59%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 17:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.73%EV -5.65%E -3.07%K -6.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -5.05%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.60%EV -9.32%E -3.05%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 17:39
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV -10.27%E -5.87%K -13.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -5.05%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.17%EV -10.80%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-08 17:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV -10.27%E -5.87%K -13.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -5.05%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.17%EV -10.80%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-08 17:34
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.59%EV -3.60%E -1.91%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.21%EV -5.99%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -6.34%E -2.01%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 17:40
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -6.94%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 17:39
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.11%EV -6.94%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -6.34%E -2.01%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 17:38
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -10.27%E -5.87%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -6.94%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.72%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 17:29
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -8.84%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 17:39
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.72%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -8.84%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 17:39
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.81%EV -10.27%E -5.87%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.53%EV -8.84%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.66%EV -13.78%E -4.75%K -7.25%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 17:35
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -9.79%E -2.06%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-06 19:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.92%EV -11.80%E -6.86%K -16.39%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.80%EV -9.79%E -2.06%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.28%EV -9.32%E -3.05%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-08 17:39
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.05%EV -2.57%E -1.35%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.23%EV -10.74%E -2.29%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 17:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.11%EV -12.83%E -7.55%K -18.33%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.85%EV -10.74%E -2.29%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.04%EV -9.32%E -3.05%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-08 17:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.11%EV -12.83%E -7.55%K -18.33%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.85%EV -10.74%E -2.29%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.04%EV -9.32%E -3.05%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-08 17:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.40%EV -13.86%E -8.25%K -20.38%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.73%EV -10.74%E -2.29%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.86%EV -9.32%E -3.05%K -4.54%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-08 17:35
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.03%EV -5.14%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -12.64%E -2.75%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 17:40
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -12.64%E -2.75%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 17:39
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -12.64%E -2.75%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -6.34%E -2.01%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 17:40
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -14.54%E -3.23%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -1.88%E -0.571%K -0.819%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 17:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.00%EV -8.73%E -4.90%K -11.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.17%EV -14.54%E -3.23%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -6.34%E -2.01%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 17:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.77%EV -8.73%E -4.90%K -11.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -14.54%E -3.23%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 17:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.82%EV -9.75%E -5.54%K -12.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.33%EV -16.44%E -3.74%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-08 17:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.21%EV -5.14%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.50%EV -17.39%E -4.00%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.29%EV -15.26%E -5.36%K -8.25%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-08 17:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.49%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.40%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.11%0.6%2026-08-08 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.49%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.40%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.11%0.6%2026-08-08 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.35%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.67%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98%1.1%2026-08-08 17:40
Smarkets◎1.87I 53.48%NM 52.85%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.50%1.2%2026-08-08 17:40