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Atlético Tucuman v Sarmiento de Junin

2026-08-08 17:45 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Tucuman (Local)

Prediction 51.61%1.94fair odd
EV -6.06%
Edge -3.33%
Kelly -7.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.29%51.61%51.61%52.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.781.801.8257.80%56.09%55.56%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sarmiento de Junin (Visit)

Prediction 19.35%5.17fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -0.526%
Kelly -0.656%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.86%19.35%19.35%20.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.674.755.0323.81%21.42%21.05%19.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.03%3.44fair odd
EV -5.06%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -2.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.71%29.03%29.03%29.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.153.153.2733.33%31.72%31.75%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Atlético Tucuman (Local): 51.61%; Sarmiento de Junin (Visit): 19.35%; Draw: 29.03%. For Sarmiento de Junin (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.17. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.03, with an expected value of -2.65%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.13%EV -6.06%E -3.33%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.03I 19.88%NM 18.86%EV -2.65%E -0.526%K -0.656%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.01%EV -5.06%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 19:54
SportsBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.84%EV -7.10%E -3.94%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -7.10%E -1.48%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -5.65%E -1.74%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 15:10
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%EV -7.10%E -3.94%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -7.10%E -1.48%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -7.10%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 15:08
betfred_uk1.80I 55.56%NM 50.71%EV -7.10%E -3.94%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.97%E -2.38%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -10.00%E -3.23%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 15:09
Bet Right1.78I 56.18%NM 51.55%EV -8.13%E -4.57%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.32%EV -8.06%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -8.55%E -2.71%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 15:14
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -9.68%E -5.53%K -12.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -12.90%E -2.87%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -10.00%E -3.23%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-02 15:14
Sky Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 50.29%EV -10.71%E -6.19%K -14.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.71%EV -18.71%E -4.45%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.00%EV -12.90%E -4.30%K -6.45%G +0.000%14.9%2026-08-02 15:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.15I 86.96%NM 31.86%1.15I 86.96%NM 31.86%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.28%172.9%2026-08-02 15:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.15I 86.96%NM 31.86%1.15I 86.96%NM 31.86%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.28%172.9%2026-08-02 15:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.15I 86.96%NM 31.86%1.15I 86.96%NM 31.86%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.28%172.9%2026-08-02 15:10