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Atlético Tucuman v Sarmiento de Junin
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Atlético Tucuman (Local)
Predicción 51.28%1.95momio equitativo
EV -2.57%
Ventaja -1.35%
Kelly -2.86%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.90
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.21%51.27%51.25%52.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.681.801.801.9059.52%55.55%55.56%52.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Sarmiento de Junin (Visitante)
Predicción 18.99%5.27momio equitativo
EV +9.58%
Ventaja +1.66%
Kelly +2.01%
Crecimiento +0.192%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.77
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.71%18.98%19.05%20.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.354.904.905.7722.99%20.41%20.41%17.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 29.73%3.36momio equitativo
EV -1.88%
Ventaja -0.571%
Kelly -0.819%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.28%29.75%29.70%31.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.853.133.153.3035.09%31.96%31.75%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Atlético Tucuman (Local): 51.28%; Sarmiento de Junin (Visitante): 18.99%; Empate: 29.73%. Para Sarmiento de Junin (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.27. 5 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.77, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +9.58%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (35 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.68%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 5.77I 17.33%NM 16.71%EV +9.58%E +1.66%K +2.01%G +0.192% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.61%EV -6.34%E -2.01%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-08 17:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.05%EV -5.14%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 5.45I 18.35%NM 17.67%EV +3.50%E +0.642%K +0.787%G +0.028% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.28%EV -5.45%E -1.71%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-08 17:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.05%EV -5.14%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 5.45I 18.35%NM 17.67%EV +3.50%E +0.642%K +0.787%G +0.028% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.28%EV -5.45%E -1.71%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-08 17:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.67%EV -9.24%E -5.22%K -12.00%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV +2.55%E +0.472%K +0.580%G +0.015% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.07%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-08 17:33 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.08%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.69%EV +0.652%E +0.123%K +0.152%G +0.001% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-08 17:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.07%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -0.298%E -0.057%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-08 17:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.25%EV -7.19%E -3.97%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.19%EV -1.25%E -0.240%K -0.297%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-08 17:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.72%EV -8.73%E -4.90%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -3.15%E -0.617%K -0.767%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -3.37%E -1.04%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-08 17:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.72%EV -8.73%E -4.90%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -3.15%E -0.617%K -0.767%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -3.37%E -1.04%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-08 17:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.09%EV -5.65%E -3.07%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 5.08I 19.69%NM 18.87%EV -3.53%E -0.694%K -0.864%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.04%EV -1.88%E -0.571%K -0.819%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-08 17:38 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.47%EV -5.65%E -3.07%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -5.05%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.59%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 17:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.73%EV -5.65%E -3.07%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -5.05%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.60%EV -9.32%E -3.05%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-08 17:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV -10.27%E -5.87%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -5.05%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.17%EV -10.80%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-08 17:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV -10.27%E -5.87%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -5.05%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.17%EV -10.80%E -3.60%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-08 17:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.59%EV -3.60%E -1.91%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.21%EV -5.99%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -6.34%E -2.01%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 17:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -4.11%E -2.20%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -6.94%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-08 17:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.11%EV -6.94%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -6.34%E -2.01%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-08 17:38 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -10.27%E -5.87%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -6.94%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.72%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-08 17:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -8.84%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-08 17:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.72%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -8.84%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-08 17:39 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.81%EV -10.27%E -5.87%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.53%EV -8.84%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.66%EV -13.78%E -4.75%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-08 17:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -9.79%E -2.06%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-06 19:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.92%EV -11.80%E -6.86%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.80%EV -9.79%E -2.06%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.28%EV -9.32%E -3.05%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-08 17:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.05%EV -2.57%E -1.35%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.23%EV -10.74%E -2.29%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 17:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.11%EV -12.83%E -7.55%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.85%EV -10.74%E -2.29%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.04%EV -9.32%E -3.05%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-08 17:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.11%EV -12.83%E -7.55%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.85%EV -10.74%E -2.29%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.04%EV -9.32%E -3.05%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-08 17:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.40%EV -13.86%E -8.25%K -20.38%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.73%EV -10.74%E -2.29%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.86%EV -9.32%E -3.05%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-08-08 17:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.03%EV -5.14%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -12.64%E -2.75%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 17:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -12.64%E -2.75%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -4.86%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-08 17:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%EV -7.70%E -4.28%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -12.64%E -2.75%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -6.34%E -2.01%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-08 17:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.16%E -3.37%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -14.54%E -3.23%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -1.88%E -0.571%K -0.819%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 17:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.00%EV -8.73%E -4.90%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.17%EV -14.54%E -3.23%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -6.34%E -2.01%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 17:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.77%EV -8.73%E -4.90%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -14.54%E -3.23%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-08 17:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.82%EV -9.75%E -5.54%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.33%EV -16.44%E -3.74%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -7.83%E -2.53%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-08 17:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.21%EV -5.14%E -2.78%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.50%EV -17.39%E -4.00%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.29%EV -15.26%E -5.36%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-08 17:39 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.49% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.40% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.11% | 0.6% | 2026-08-08 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.49% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.40% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.11% | 0.6% | 2026-08-08 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.35% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.67% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98% | 1.1% | 2026-08-08 17:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.85% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.50% | 1.2% | 2026-08-08 17:40 |