The School of Odds
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Atlético Tucuman v Gimnasia La Plata

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Tucuman (Local)

Prediction 45.02%2.22fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -2.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.82%45.04%45.07%46.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.062.062.1552.63%48.66%48.54%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gimnasia La Plata (Visit)

Prediction 25.42%3.93fair odd
EV +2.68%
Edge +0.663%
Kelly +0.882%
Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 4.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.95%25.39%25.43%27.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.593.604.0431.75%27.85%27.78%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.56%3.38fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -1.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.99%29.58%29.50%31.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.103.103.2536.36%32.25%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlético Tucuman (Local): 45.02%; Gimnasia La Plata (Visit): 25.42%; Draw: 29.56%. For Gimnasia La Plata (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.93. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.68%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 46.29%EV -5.90%E -2.82%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.95%EV +2.68%E +0.663%K +0.882%G +0.024%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.77%EV -3.93%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-20 23:45
Everygame🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%EV -7.70%E -3.76%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -0.878%E -0.225%K -0.303%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-20 23:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.13%EV -5.00%E -2.37%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.93%EV -2.91%E -0.762%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.94%EV -6.00%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-20 23:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.13%EV -5.00%E -2.37%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.93%EV -2.91%E -0.762%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.94%EV -6.00%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-20 23:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.71%EV -8.15%E -4.00%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.41%EV -2.91%E -0.762%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.88%EV -7.77%E -2.49%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 23:45
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -7.70%E -3.76%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -3.42%E -0.900%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.41%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 23:45
1xBet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.49%EV -7.25%E -3.52%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -3.42%E -0.900%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.85%EV -7.18%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-20 23:45
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -9.95%E -4.98%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -3.42%E -0.900%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -11.32%E -3.77%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-20 23:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -3.20%E -1.49%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -5.96%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-20 22:15
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -6.35%E -3.05%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -5.96%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.06%EV -3.93%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-20 23:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -6.35%E -3.05%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -5.96%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.06%EV -3.93%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-20 23:45
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -6.35%E -3.05%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -5.96%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.06%EV -3.93%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-20 23:45
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -6.35%E -3.05%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -5.96%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.06%EV -3.93%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-20 23:45
BetRivers🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.32%EV -6.80%E -3.29%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -5.96%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.41%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-20 23:40
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -7.70%E -3.76%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -5.96%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-20 23:45
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.60%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -7.23%E -1.98%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -6.88%E -2.19%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 23:45
BetAnything🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.60%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -7.23%E -1.98%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -6.88%E -2.19%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 23:45
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -3.20%E -1.49%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -8.50%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.41%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-20 22:35
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -8.50%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-20 22:15
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -8.50%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-20 22:15
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -7.70%E -3.76%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.50%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -5.41%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-20 23:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.28%EV -9.95%E -4.98%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -9.77%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-20 23:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.28%EV -9.95%E -4.98%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -9.77%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-20 23:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.65%EV -11.30%E -5.74%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -9.77%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-20 23:40
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -11.04%E -3.16%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -5.41%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-20 22:35
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.04%E -3.16%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-20 22:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.34%EV -7.70%E -3.76%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -12.32%E -3.57%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-20 22:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.53%EV -13.55%E -7.06%K -14.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.34%EV -12.32%E -3.57%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -11.32%E -3.77%K -5.66%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-20 23:35
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -7.70%E -3.76%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -13.59%E -4.00%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.32%E -3.77%K -5.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-20 22:35
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.13%EV -9.95%E -4.98%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.96%EV -13.59%E -4.00%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.92%EV -12.80%E -4.34%K -6.56%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-20 23:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.62%EV -12.20%E -6.26%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.59%EV -13.59%E -4.00%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.80%EV -13.68%E -4.69%K -7.13%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-20 23:45
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -3.20%E -1.49%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -14.86%E -4.43%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-20 22:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.01%EV -5.45%E -2.60%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -16.13%E -4.89%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.62%EV -9.84%E -3.23%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-20 22:45
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -7.70%E -3.76%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -16.13%E -4.89%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -11.32%E -3.77%K -5.66%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-20 22:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -9.95%E -4.98%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -16.13%E -4.89%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -11.32%E -3.77%K -5.66%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-20 22:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.86%EV -9.95%E -4.98%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.97%EV -16.13%E -4.89%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.17%EV -18.71%E -6.80%K -10.69%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-20 22:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 43.83%EV -14.46%E -7.61%K -16.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.43%EV -19.94%E -6.33%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.74%EV -17.23%E -6.15%K -9.57%G +0.000%20.1%2026-03-20 23:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.13%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.37%1.3%2026-03-20 23:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.13%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.37%1.3%2026-03-20 23:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.13%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.37%1.3%2026-03-20 23:45
Matchbook◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.13%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.37%1.3%2026-03-20 23:45
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.36%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.40%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.24%1.7%2026-03-20 23:45
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.04%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.45%2.0%2026-03-20 23:45