Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Tucuman v CA Tigre BA

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 20:30 UTC

Final: Atlético Tucuman 0–0 CA Tigre BA

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Tucuman (Local)

Prediction 37.69%2.65fair odd
EV +5.53%
Edge +1.97%
Kelly +3.07%
Growth +0.170%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.56%37.64%37.69%38.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.482.502.8043.48%40.32%40.00%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CA Tigre BA (Visit)

Prediction 30.06%3.33fair odd
EV +0.398%
Edge +0.119%
Kelly +0.170%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.45%30.12%30.06%38.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.203.013.103.3445.45%33.23%32.26%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.25%3.10fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.23%32.24%32.25%33.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.862.883.0038.02%34.92%34.72%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlético Tucuman (Local): 37.69%; CA Tigre BA (Visit): 30.06%; Draw: 32.25%. For Atlético Tucuman (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.65. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.53%.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.56%EV +5.53%E +1.97%K +3.07%G +0.170%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.89%EV -33.87%E -15.40%K -28.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.56%EV -9.69%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%16.9%2026-03-26 20:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.84%EV -0.881%E -0.335%K -0.541%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.73%EV -13.43%E -4.66%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -3.24%E -1.08%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 08:25
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.84%EV -0.881%E -0.335%K -0.541%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.73%EV -13.43%E -4.66%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -3.24%E -1.08%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 08:25
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -2.01%E -0.774%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.60%EV -13.43%E -4.66%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.29%EV -3.24%E -1.08%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 08:24
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 31.98%EV -2.01%E -0.774%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 37.79%EV -33.87%E -15.40%K -28.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.23%EV -11.30%E -4.11%K -6.46%G +0.000%20.3%2026-03-26 20:30
Pinnacle🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.97%EV -3.90%E -1.53%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.99%EV +0.398%E +0.119%K +0.170%G +0.001%2.93I 34.13%NM 33.04%EV -5.50%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-12 20:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.34%EV -3.90%E -1.53%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.48%EV -2.91%E -0.901%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.18%EV -7.43%E -2.59%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 17:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.34%EV -3.90%E -1.53%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.48%EV -2.91%E -0.901%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.18%EV -7.43%E -2.59%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 17:00
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -3.90%E -1.53%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.11%EV -5.31%E -1.69%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.70%EV -6.47%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 12:59
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -5.78%E -2.31%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -6.82%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -3.24%E -1.08%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 07:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -5.78%E -2.31%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -6.82%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -3.24%E -1.08%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 19:29
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -5.78%E -2.31%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -6.82%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -4.85%E -1.65%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 07:10
Betsson🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.57%EV -5.78%E -2.31%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -5.31%E -1.69%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.61%EV -7.11%E -2.47%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 20:00
NordicBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.57%EV -5.78%E -2.31%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -5.31%E -1.69%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.61%EV -7.11%E -2.47%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 19:59
Bovada🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -5.78%E -2.31%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -6.82%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -6.47%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 19:28
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -5.78%E -2.31%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -6.82%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -6.47%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 07:09
Everygame🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -5.78%E -2.31%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -3.81%E -1.19%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -9.69%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 19:29
BetAnything🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -5.78%E -2.31%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -4.85%E -1.65%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 04:30
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -5.78%E -2.31%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -6.82%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -9.69%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 20:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -5.78%E -2.31%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -15.83%E -5.66%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -7.11%E -2.47%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-12 08:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -5.78%E -2.31%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -15.83%E -5.66%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -7.11%E -2.47%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-12 08:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.89%EV -5.78%E -2.31%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -17.34%E -6.30%K -9.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.48%EV -8.08%E -2.83%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-12 08:25
1xBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.76%EV -6.53%E -2.63%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -5.31%E -1.69%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -7.11%E -2.47%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 20:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.75%EV -6.91%E -2.80%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.88%EV -6.22%E -1.99%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.37%EV -7.11%E -2.47%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 19:59
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -7.67%E -3.13%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -0.805%E -0.244%K -0.350%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -8.08%E -2.83%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 19:30
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.78%EV -7.67%E -3.13%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -4.85%E -1.65%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 19:28
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.70%EV -7.67%E -3.13%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.32%EV -5.31%E -1.69%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -9.69%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 20:00
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -9.55%E -3.98%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -2.31%E -0.710%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -9.69%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 19:30
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -9.55%E -3.98%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -6.82%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -7.11%E -2.47%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 20:00
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.25%EV -9.55%E -3.98%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -8.32%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -6.47%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 19:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -9.55%E -3.98%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.14%EV -9.22%E -3.05%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.94%EV -8.08%E -2.83%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-12 08:38
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.86%EV -9.55%E -3.98%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -11.33%E -3.84%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.33%EV -6.47%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-12 07:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.85%EV -9.55%E -3.98%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -8.08%E -2.83%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 19:29
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.33%EV -10.30%E -4.33%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -3.81%E -1.19%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -11.30%E -4.11%K -6.46%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 19:30
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -10.30%E -4.33%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -6.82%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -12.92%E -4.78%K -7.60%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-12 19:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.94%EV -11.43%E -4.87%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -11.33%E -3.84%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.84%EV -9.69%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-12 08:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.97%EV -11.43%E -4.87%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.49%EV -14.33%E -5.03%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.54%EV -13.88%E -5.20%K -8.31%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-12 19:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.05%EV -13.32%E -5.79%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.70%EV -14.33%E -5.03%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.25%EV -9.69%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-12 07:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -13.32%E -5.79%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.88%EV -13.43%E -4.66%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.72%EV -15.17%E -5.77%K -9.31%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-12 20:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62I 38.17%NM 38.06%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.49%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.46%0.3%2026-04-12 20:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.62I 38.17%NM 38.06%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.49%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.46%0.3%2026-04-12 20:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.62I 38.17%NM 38.06%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.49%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.46%0.3%2026-04-12 20:00
Matchbook2.62I 38.17%NM 38.06%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.49%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.46%0.3%2026-04-12 20:00
Smarkets2.58I 38.76%NM 38.18%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.55%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.28%1.5%2026-04-12 20:00
Kalshi2.56I 39.06%NM 37.89%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.13%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.99%3.1%2026-04-12 19:30