Language:English
Ireland v Wales
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ireland (Local)
Prediction 90.85%1.10fair odd
EV -4.61%
Edge -4.39%
Kelly -92.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.76%90.82%90.71%93.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.021.021.0599.01%98.04%98.52%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Wales (Visit)
Prediction 7.06%14.16fair odd
EV +27.08%
Edge +1.50%
Kelly +1.59%
Growth +0.431%
assuming max odds 18.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.28%6.99%7.07%8.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0013.2412.7518.009.09%7.55%7.84%5.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 2.09%47.76fair odd
EV +40.28%
Edge +0.601%
Kelly +0.610%
Growth +0.246%
assuming max odds 67.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.42%2.19%2.22%3.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
26.0045.0041.0067.003.85%2.22%2.44%1.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ireland (Local): 90.85%; Wales (Visit): 7.06%; Draw: 2.09%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 47.76. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 67.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +40.28%.
11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.14%EV -7.34%E -7.19%K -366.85%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.28%EV +27.08%E +1.50%K +1.59%G +0.431% | 60.00I 1.67%NM 1.58%EV +25.62%E +0.427%K +0.434%G +0.111% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 14:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.88%EV -8.25%E -8.16%K -824.55%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.80%EV +12.96%E +0.810%K +0.864%G +0.112% | 40.00I 2.50%NM 2.32%EV -16.25%E -0.406%K -0.417%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-06 11:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.25%EV -6.43%E -6.24%K -214.29%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV +5.90%E +0.394%K +0.422%G +0.025% | 67.00I 1.49%NM 1.42%EV +40.28%E +0.601%K +0.610%G +0.246% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 19:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -8.25%E -8.16%K -824.55%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV +5.90%E +0.394%K +0.422%G +0.025% | 60.00I 1.67%NM 1.55%EV +25.62%E +0.427%K +0.434%G +0.111% | 7.3% | 2026-03-05 13:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -8.25%E -8.16%K -824.55%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV +5.90%E +0.394%K +0.422%G +0.025% | 60.00I 1.67%NM 1.55%EV +25.62%E +0.427%K +0.434%G +0.111% | 7.3% | 2026-03-05 13:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.28%EV -7.34%E -7.19%K -366.85%G +0.000% | 14.90I 6.71%NM 6.18%EV +5.20%E +0.349%K +0.374%G +0.019% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.54%EV -45.56%E -1.75%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-06 20:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.96%EV -6.43%E -6.24%K -214.29%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -8.22%E -0.632%K -0.685%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.84%EV +6.78%E +0.133%K +0.136%G +0.009% | 6.7% | 2026-03-05 18:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.12%EV -8.25%E -8.16%K -824.55%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.08%EV -8.22%E -0.632%K -0.685%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.80%EV +6.78%E +0.133%K +0.136%G +0.009% | 8.7% | 2026-03-06 19:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 89.98%EV -8.25%E -8.16%K -824.55%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.99%EV -8.22%E -0.632%K -0.685%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.03%EV -37.19%E -1.24%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-05 13:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.78%EV -7.34%E -7.19%K -366.85%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV -11.75%E -0.940%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.82%EV +6.78%E +0.133%K +0.136%G +0.009% | 8.0% | 2026-03-06 20:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.84%EV -4.61%E -4.39%K -92.23%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.86%EV -15.28%E -1.27%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.30%EV -14.16%E -0.345%K -0.354%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-06 09:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.93%EV -5.52%E -5.31%K -138.00%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -15.28%E -1.27%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.28%EV -14.16%E -0.345%K -0.354%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-06 18:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 90.19%EV -8.25%E -8.16%K -824.55%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -15.28%E -1.27%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.22%EV -14.16%E -0.345%K -0.354%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-06 20:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 90.19%EV -8.25%E -8.16%K -824.55%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -15.28%E -1.27%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.22%EV -14.16%E -0.345%K -0.354%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-06 20:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 90.19%EV -8.25%E -8.16%K -824.55%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -15.28%E -1.27%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.22%EV -14.16%E -0.345%K -0.354%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-06 20:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.33%EV -6.43%E -6.24%K -214.29%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV -22.34%E -2.03%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 40.00I 2.50%NM 2.30%EV -16.25%E -0.406%K -0.417%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-06 11:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.33%EV -6.43%E -6.24%K -214.29%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV -22.34%E -2.03%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 40.00I 2.50%NM 2.30%EV -16.25%E -0.406%K -0.417%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-06 11:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 88.76%EV -8.25%E -8.16%K -824.55%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.15%EV -22.34%E -2.03%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.09%EV -39.28%E -1.35%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-03-06 16:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.56% | 27.03I 3.70%NM 3.68% | 129.87I 0.77%NM 0.77% | 0.6% | 2026-03-06 20:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.55% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.68% | 130.00I 0.77%NM 0.76% | 0.6% | 2026-03-06 20:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.55% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.68% | 130.00I 0.77%NM 0.76% | 0.6% | 2026-03-06 20:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.55% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.68% | 130.00I 0.77%NM 0.76% | 0.6% | 2026-03-06 20:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.55% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.68% | 130.00I 0.77%NM 0.76% | 0.6% | 2026-03-06 20:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.68% | 18.14I 5.51%NM 5.32% | 3.6% | 2026-03-06 19:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61% | 4.9% | 2026-03-03 22:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31% | 5.7% | 2026-02-25 03:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 15:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 15:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 15:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 15:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 15:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28% | 5.7% | 2026-03-02 04:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56% | 6.2% | 2026-03-04 23:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56% | 6.2% | 2026-03-04 23:29 |