Language:English
Ireland v Scotland
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ireland (Local)
Prediction 64.36%1.55fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -6.91%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.46%64.29%64.23%67.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.431.421.5071.43%69.98%70.42%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Scotland (Visit)
Prediction 31.55%3.17fair odd
EV +7.27%
Edge +2.14%
Kelly +3.03%
Growth +0.220%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.96%31.62%31.67%34.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.962.923.4037.04%33.77%34.31%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 4.09%24.47fair odd
EV +10.34%
Edge +0.383%
Kelly +0.398%
Growth +0.041%
assuming max odds 27.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.43%4.08%4.10%4.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
19.0022.1722.0027.005.26%4.51%4.55%3.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ireland (Local): 64.36%; Scotland (Visit): 31.55%; Draw: 4.09%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 24.47. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 27.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.34%.
12 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.91%EV -9.89%E -7.07%K -24.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.96%EV +7.27%E +2.14%K +3.03%G +0.220% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV -6.01%E -0.261%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-14 13:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -9.89%E -7.07%K -24.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +2.54%E +0.782%K +1.13%G +0.029% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.08%EV -6.01%E -0.261%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-14 13:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.71%EV -9.25%E -6.56%K -22.56%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -0.615%E -0.195%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.88%EV -22.36%E -1.18%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-14 14:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.83%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV -6.01%E -0.261%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-13 19:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.19%EV -9.25%E -6.56%K -22.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.18%EV -10.10%E -0.459%K -0.481%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.19%EV -9.25%E -6.56%K -22.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.18%EV -10.10%E -0.459%K -0.481%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.19%EV -9.25%E -6.56%K -22.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.18%EV -10.10%E -0.459%K -0.481%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.19%EV -9.25%E -6.56%K -22.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.18%EV -10.10%E -0.459%K -0.481%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.14%EV -6.03%E -4.13%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.96%EV -7.56%E -2.58%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 3.90%EV -1.92%E -0.080%K -0.084%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-14 13:51 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.40%EV -7.96%E -5.57%K -18.51%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -8.50%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 3.84%EV -1.92%E -0.080%K -0.084%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-14 13:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.67%EV -9.89%E -7.07%K -24.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.22%EV -8.50%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.12%EV -10.10%E -0.459%K -0.481%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.84%EV -6.67%E -4.60%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.14%EV -9.13%E -3.17%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.02%EV -6.01%E -0.261%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-14 14:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.75%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.88%EV -9.13%E -3.17%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%EV -14.18%E -0.675%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-14 14:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.75%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.88%EV -9.13%E -3.17%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%EV -14.18%E -0.675%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-14 14:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.75%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.88%EV -9.13%E -3.17%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%EV -14.18%E -0.675%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-14 14:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.55%EV -9.89%E -7.07%K -24.73%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -11.66%E -4.16%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.68%EV -22.36%E -1.18%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-14 14:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.93%EV -5.39%E -3.66%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.64%EV -13.24%E -4.81%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.43%EV +10.34%E +0.383%K +0.398%G +0.041% | 8.1% | 2026-03-14 13:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.46%EV -3.46%E -2.30%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -14.81%E -5.49%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.39%EV -14.18%E -0.675%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-14 12:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.93% | 0.4% | 2026-03-14 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.93% | 0.4% | 2026-03-14 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.93% | 0.4% | 2026-03-14 14:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.93% | 0.4% | 2026-03-14 14:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61% | 34.01I 2.94%NM 2.92% | 0.8% | 2026-03-14 14:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (12)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 14:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 13:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 03:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68% | 5.8% | 2026-03-12 19:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68% | 5.8% | 2026-03-12 19:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68% | 5.8% | 2026-03-12 19:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68% | 5.8% | 2026-03-12 19:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68% | 5.8% | 2026-03-12 19:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12% | 6.5% | 2026-03-11 20:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12% | 6.5% | 2026-03-11 20:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64% | 7.9% | 2026-03-12 19:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89% | 8.2% | 2026-03-14 14:05 |