The School of Odds
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Färjestad BK v HV71

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 16:00 UTC

Final: Färjestad BK 3–1 HV71

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Färjestad BK (Local)

Prediction 69.06%1.45fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -2.37%
Kelly -8.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.82%69.01%69.14%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.361.361.4076.92%73.43%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HV71 (Visit)

Prediction 30.94%3.23fair odd
EV +0.544%
Edge +0.167%
Kelly +0.242%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.57%30.99%30.86%32.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.083.103.2534.72%32.45%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Färjestad BK (Local): 69.06%; HV71 (Visit): 30.94%. For HV71 (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.23. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.544%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -10.22%E -7.86%K -34.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV +0.544%E +0.167%K +0.242%G +0.001%7.7%2026-10-02 06:25
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -10.22%E -7.86%K -34.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV +0.544%E +0.167%K +0.242%G +0.001%7.7%2026-10-02 06:24
theScore Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -5.38%E -3.93%K -14.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -1.00%E -0.313%K -0.456%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-03 15:45
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.07%E -4.47%K -16.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.10%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 15:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.07%E -4.47%K -16.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.10%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 15:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.07%E -4.47%K -16.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.10%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 15:45
Pinnacle🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.14%EV -5.38%E -3.93%K -14.55%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 30.86%EV -5.02%E -1.64%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 15:55
DraftKings🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -3.31%E -2.37%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-03 15:25
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.31%E -2.37%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.74%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 15:45
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.31%E -2.37%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.74%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 15:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.07%E -4.47%K -16.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -10.90%E -3.79%K -5.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-03 15:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.41I 70.92%NM 68.87%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.13%3.0%2026-10-03 15:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 67.12%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.88%3.5%2026-10-03 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 67.12%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.88%3.5%2026-10-03 15:55
Smarkets◎1.34I 74.63%NM 68.98%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.02%8.2%2026-10-03 15:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 63.02%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.31%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.66%3.0%2026-10-03 15:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 63.02%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.31%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.66%3.0%2026-10-03 15:21
Svenska Spel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 63.02%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.31%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.66%3.0%2026-10-03 15:20
Coolbet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.76%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.38%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.86%3.9%2026-10-03 10:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.03%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.30%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%5.1%2026-10-03 15:20
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.94%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.98%5.4%2026-10-03 15:45
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.06%4.29I 23.31%NM 21.93%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.01%6.3%2026-10-03 15:51
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.71%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%6.5%2026-10-03 15:45
Casumo🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.89%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.37%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%6.7%2026-10-03 15:20
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.89%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.37%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%6.7%2026-10-03 15:20
Grosvenor🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.89%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.37%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%6.7%2026-10-03 15:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.89%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.37%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%6.7%2026-10-03 15:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.54%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.53%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%6.8%2026-10-03 15:51
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.38%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.50%10.3%2026-10-03 15:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.47%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.96%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.57%11.1%2026-10-03 15:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.11%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.16%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.73%12.4%2026-10-03 15:21
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.69%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.19%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.12%15.6%2026-10-03 15:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 56.98%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.92%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.10%17.0%2026-10-03 15:45