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Washington Capitals v Philadelphia Flyers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Washington Capitals (Local)
Prediction 56.88%1.76fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -3.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.72
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.90%56.96%56.85%58.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.681.681.7265.36%59.66%59.52%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Philadelphia Flyers (Visit)
Prediction 43.12%2.32fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.742%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.98%43.04%43.15%44.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.222.222.2848.31%45.12%45.05%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Washington Capitals (Local): 56.88%; Philadelphia Flyers (Visit): 43.12%. For Philadelphia Flyers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.28, with an expected value of -1.69%; they did not produce positive expected value.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -2.16%E -1.26%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -6.00%E -2.75%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.71%EV -2.73%E -1.60%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.29%EV -3.42%E -1.52%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.71%EV -2.73%E -1.60%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.29%EV -3.42%E -1.52%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.73%E -1.60%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -5.14%E -2.34%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.29%EV -3.30%E -1.94%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.71%EV -1.69%E -0.742%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.30%E -1.94%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.14%E -2.34%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.30%E -1.94%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.14%E -2.34%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.30%E -1.94%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.14%E -2.34%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-25 23:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.87%E -2.29%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.98%E -1.33%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.87%E -2.29%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.98%E -1.33%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.87%E -2.29%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.98%E -1.33%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.87%E -2.29%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.98%E -1.33%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -3.87%E -2.29%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -4.28%E -1.93%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.87%E -2.29%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.14%E -2.34%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.87%E -2.29%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.14%E -2.34%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.87%E -2.29%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.14%E -2.34%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.87%E -2.29%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.14%E -2.34%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -4.44%E -2.64%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -2.12%E -0.935%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.44%E -2.64%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.42%E -1.52%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -4.44%E -2.64%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -4.28%E -1.93%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.44%E -2.64%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.14%E -2.34%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.44%E -2.64%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -6.00%E -2.75%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.44%E -2.64%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -6.00%E -2.75%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.44%E -2.64%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.30%E -3.39%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-25 23:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.44%E -2.64%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.30%E -3.39%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.44%E -2.64%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.30%E -3.39%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-25 23:59 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -5.01%E -3.00%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -4.28%E -1.93%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-25 23:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.01%E -3.00%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.14%E -2.34%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-25 23:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.01%E -3.00%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.30%E -3.39%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -6.14%E -3.72%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -1.69%E -0.742%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-25 23:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -6.14%E -3.72%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -1.69%E -0.742%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-25 23:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -6.14%E -3.72%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -1.69%E -0.742%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.14%E -3.72%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.98%E -1.33%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 23:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.14%E -3.72%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.98%E -1.33%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.14%E -3.72%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.98%E -1.33%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.14%E -3.72%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.98%E -1.33%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 23:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.14%E -3.72%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.98%E -1.33%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 23:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.14%E -3.72%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.14%E -2.34%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.50%EV -12.97%E -8.48%K -24.47%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 42.50%EV -10.75%E -5.19%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 0.6% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64% | 0.9% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07% | 0.9% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.36% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64% | 1.4% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.36% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64% | 1.4% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04% | 2.1% | 2026-02-25 23:59 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72% | 2.1% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.78% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.22% | 2.4% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.12% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.31% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57% | 3.0% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.12% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.31% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57% | 3.0% | 2026-02-25 23:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.12% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.31% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57% | 3.0% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.12% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.31% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57% | 3.0% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.84% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.25% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.91% | 3.7% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.34% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.89% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78% | 4.5% | 2026-02-25 23:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.10% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.87% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.04% | 4.6% | 2026-02-25 23:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.35% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20% | 4.8% | 2026-02-25 23:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.89% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.53% | 5.6% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.89% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.53% | 5.6% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.89% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.53% | 5.6% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.89% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.53% | 5.6% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.03% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62% | 6.3% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.80% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90% | 6.5% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.18% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09% | 7.8% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.55% | 7.9% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.05% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.69% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.26% | 8.8% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.67% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.05% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.28% | 9.5% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.16% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.69% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.16% | 10.7% | 2026-02-25 23:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 44.90% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.44% | 10.8% | 2026-02-26 00:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.59% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.39% | 11.1% | 2026-02-25 23:57 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.59% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.39% | 11.1% | 2026-02-25 23:59 |