The School of Odds
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Washington Capitals v New Jersey Devils

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 23:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Capitals (Local)

Prediction 53.30%1.88fair odd
EV -0.337%
Edge -0.180%
Kelly -0.387%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%53.28%53.25%55.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.791.801.8761.35%55.85%55.56%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Jersey Devils (Visit)

Prediction 46.70%2.14fair odd
EV -0.053%
Edge -0.025%
Kelly -0.046%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.85%46.72%46.75%48.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.042.052.1452.63%48.99%48.78%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Washington Capitals (Local): 53.30%; New Jersey Devils (Visit): 46.70%. For New Jersey Devils (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.141. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.140, with an expected value of -0.053%; they did not produce positive expected value.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -0.337%E -0.180%K -0.387%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -8.93%E -4.58%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-20 23:00
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.47%E -1.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.59%E -3.30%K -6.59%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-20 23:00
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.47%E -1.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.59%E -3.30%K -6.59%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-20 23:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.47%E -1.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.59%E -3.30%K -6.59%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-20 23:00
Betsson🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -2.47%E -1.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -7.53%E -3.80%K -7.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 23:00
NordicBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -2.47%E -1.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -7.53%E -3.80%K -7.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 23:00
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.00%E -1.65%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.66%E -2.80%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-20 22:49
PlayUp🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.00%E -1.65%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.59%E -3.30%K -6.59%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-20 23:00
SportsBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -3.00%E -1.65%K -3.66%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -7.06%E -3.55%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-20 23:00
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.83%EV -3.53%E -1.95%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.17%EV -1.45%E -0.689%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-20 22:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.59%EV -3.53%E -1.95%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.41%EV -2.39%E -1.14%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-20 22:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.59%EV -3.53%E -1.95%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.41%EV -2.39%E -1.14%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-20 22:50
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.07%E -2.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-20 22:24
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.07%E -2.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-20 22:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.07%E -2.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-20 22:25
GTbets🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.07%E -2.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-20 22:25
Caesars🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.07%E -2.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-20 22:49
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.07%E -2.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-20 22:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.07%E -2.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-20 22:55
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.07%E -2.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-20 22:55
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.07%E -2.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-20 23:00
BetAnything🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.07%E -2.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-20 22:50
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.07%E -2.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.59%E -3.30%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 23:00
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.07%E -2.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.59%E -3.30%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 22:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.07%E -2.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.93%E -4.58%K -9.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 23:00
Bet Right🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -5.13%E -2.88%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -2.86%E -1.37%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-20 23:00
Neds🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -5.13%E -2.88%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -5.66%E -2.80%K -5.55%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-20 22:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -5.13%E -2.88%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -5.66%E -2.80%K -5.55%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-20 22:55
ReBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.67%E -3.20%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.92%E -0.915%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-20 22:59
Everygame🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.67%E -3.20%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.92%E -0.915%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-20 05:20
Fliff🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.67%E -3.20%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-20 23:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -6.20%E -3.52%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -2.86%E -1.37%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-20 22:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.73%E -3.85%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-20 20:20
Bally Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -7.27%E -4.18%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -0.053%E -0.025%K -0.046%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-20 13:04
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -7.27%E -4.18%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -0.053%E -0.025%K -0.046%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-20 13:04
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -7.80%E -4.51%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -0.987%E -0.466%K -0.881%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-20 13:05
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.80%E -4.51%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.92%E -0.915%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-20 15:54
NetBet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 53.82%EV -13.13%E -8.05%K -20.84%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.18%EV -11.26%E -5.93%K -12.51%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-20 22:58
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00%2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00%0.4%2026-03-20 23:00
Matchbook◎1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87%0.6%2026-03-20 23:00
Novig◎1.87I 53.48%NM 53.02%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.98%0.9%2026-03-20 23:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.27%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.73%0.9%2026-03-20 23:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.27%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.73%0.9%2026-03-20 23:00
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-03-20 23:00
Polymarket◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-03-20 22:59
Smarkets◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.30%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.70%2.0%2026-03-20 23:00
BetOpenly◎1.79I 55.87%NM 54.68%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.32%2.2%2026-03-20 22:59

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.50%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.68%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.82%3.1%2026-03-20 13:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.50%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.68%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.82%3.1%2026-03-20 13:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.50%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.68%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.82%3.1%2026-03-20 21:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.50%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.68%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.82%3.1%2026-03-20 13:04
Coolbet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.37%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.82%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.80%4.4%2026-03-20 22:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.10%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.14%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.76%4.6%2026-03-20 22:59
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.43%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.36%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%4.7%2026-03-20 22:59
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.78%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.49%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%4.8%2026-03-20 13:04
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.78%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.49%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%4.8%2026-03-20 13:05
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.78%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.49%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%4.8%2026-03-20 13:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.78%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.49%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%4.8%2026-03-20 13:04
TABtouch🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.51%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.57%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%6.4%2026-03-20 13:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.55%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%6.8%2026-03-20 22:48
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.52%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.28%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%7.3%2026-03-20 23:00
LeoVegas🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.48%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%7.5%2026-03-20 13:05
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%8.5%2026-03-20 22:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.11%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.64%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.24%8.9%2026-03-20 22:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.75%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.42%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%9.1%2026-03-20 23:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.53%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.22%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.24%9.7%2026-03-20 23:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%11.1%2026-03-20 23:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.04%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.60%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.37%11.2%2026-03-20 22:55