Language:English
Washington Capitals v Buffalo Sabres
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Washington Capitals (Local)
Prediction 48.57%2.06fair odd
EV -0.430%
Edge -0.210%
Kelly -0.410%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.75%48.44%48.58%49.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.811.961.952.0555.25%50.92%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Buffalo Sabres (Visit)
Prediction 51.43%1.94fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -3.14%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.89
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.78%51.56%51.42%53.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.851.851.8958.48%54.02%54.05%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Washington Capitals (Local): 48.57%; Buffalo Sabres (Visit): 51.43%. For Washington Capitals (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.06. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.05, with an expected value of -0.430%; they did not produce positive expected value.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -0.430%E -0.210%K -0.410%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -7.43%E -4.13%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-04 22:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34%EV -1.89%E -0.934%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66%EV -2.80%E -1.48%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-04-04 22:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.45%EV -2.86%E -1.43%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.55%EV -3.31%E -1.76%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-04 22:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.45%EV -2.86%E -1.43%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.55%EV -3.31%E -1.76%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-04 22:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.86%E -1.43%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.86%E -2.62%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-04 19:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.86%E -1.43%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.86%E -2.62%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-04 19:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.86%E -1.43%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.86%E -2.62%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-04 04:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.86%E -1.43%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.86%E -2.62%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-04 04:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.86%E -1.43%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.88%E -3.22%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-04 06:04 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.86%E -1.43%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.88%E -3.22%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-04 23:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.86%E -1.43%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.43%E -4.13%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-04 23:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -3.83%E -1.93%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -4.34%E -2.33%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-04 21:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -3.83%E -1.93%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.86%E -2.62%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-04 04:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.32%E -2.19%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.86%E -2.62%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-04 21:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -4.32%E -2.19%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -5.88%E -3.22%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-04 19:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.22%EV -5.29%E -2.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78%EV -2.80%E -1.48%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-04 22:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -5.29%E -2.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -3.31%E -1.76%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-04 23:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.29%E -2.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.83%E -2.05%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-03 15:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.29%E -2.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.83%E -2.05%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-04 23:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.29%E -2.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.83%E -2.05%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-03 15:43 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.29%E -2.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.83%E -2.05%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-03 15:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.29%E -2.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.83%E -2.05%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-03 21:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.29%E -2.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.83%E -2.05%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-04 22:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.29%E -2.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.83%E -2.05%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-03 18:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.29%E -2.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.83%E -2.05%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-04 04:14 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.29%E -2.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.83%E -2.05%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-04 17:29 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.29%E -2.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.83%E -2.05%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-04 03:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.29%E -2.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.86%E -2.62%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 21:13 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.29%E -2.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.86%E -2.62%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-04 22:48 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.29%E -2.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.86%E -2.62%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-04 23:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.29%E -2.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.86%E -2.62%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-04 23:04 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.29%E -2.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.86%E -2.62%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.29%E -2.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.88%E -3.22%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-04 04:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.29%E -2.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.88%E -3.22%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-04 04:14 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.77%E -2.98%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -3.83%E -2.05%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-04 22:13 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.77%E -2.98%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.34%E -2.33%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-04 23:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.23%E -3.79%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.88%E -3.22%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-04 23:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 48.58%EV -12.09%E -6.68%K -14.92%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 51.42%EV -12.06%E -7.05%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-04-04 22:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 2.07I 48.31%NM 48.12% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.88% | 0.4% | 2026-04-04 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76% | 0.6% | 2026-04-04 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76% | 0.6% | 2026-04-04 23:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76% | 0.6% | 2026-04-04 23:05 |
| Novig◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.11% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.89% | 0.9% | 2026-04-04 23:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 1.0% | 2026-04-04 22:54 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52% | 1.1% | 2026-04-04 22:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.22% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.78% | 1.7% | 2026-04-04 23:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.91% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.78% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.31% | 3.0% | 2026-04-04 19:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.91% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.78% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.31% | 3.0% | 2026-04-04 19:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.91% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.78% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.31% | 3.0% | 2026-04-04 20:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.91% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.78% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.31% | 3.0% | 2026-04-04 19:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.37% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.31% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.32% | 4.2% | 2026-04-04 23:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.34% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.17% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.49% | 4.6% | 2026-04-04 22:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.14% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.73% | 4.31I 23.20%NM 22.12% | 4.9% | 2026-04-04 22:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.96% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.42% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.62% | 5.3% | 2026-04-04 22:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.62% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27% | 5.7% | 2026-04-04 19:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.62% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27% | 5.7% | 2026-04-04 19:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.62% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27% | 5.7% | 2026-04-04 19:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.62% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27% | 5.7% | 2026-04-04 19:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.95% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.61% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43% | 6.1% | 2026-04-04 19:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.19% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.99% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82% | 6.9% | 2026-04-04 22:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.62% | 7.6% | 2026-04-04 23:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.15% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.74% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.11% | 7.7% | 2026-04-04 19:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.77% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.85% | 8.1% | 2026-04-04 22:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.28% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.84% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88% | 8.8% | 2026-04-04 22:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.73% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.35% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92% | 9.1% | 2026-04-04 22:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.10% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.64% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.26% | 9.4% | 2026-04-04 23:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.91% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.43% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66% | 9.9% | 2026-04-04 23:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.02% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 40.76% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.21% | 12.5% | 2026-04-04 22:09 |