La escuela de los momios

Vegas Golden Knights v Winnipeg Jets

Inicio: 2026-04-14 02:10 UTC

Final: Vegas Golden Knights 6–2 Winnipeg Jets

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

38 corredores (13 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Vegas Golden Knights (Local)

Predicción 61.53%1.63momio equitativo
EV -3.39%
Ventaja -2.16%
Kelly -5.95%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.76%61.64%61.58%63.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.431.551.561.5769.93%64.51%64.10%63.69%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Winnipeg Jets (Visitante)

Predicción 38.47%2.60momio equitativo
EV +1.93%
Ventaja +0.730%
Kelly +1.17%
Crecimiento +0.023%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.30%38.36%38.42%39.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.492.472.6543.48%40.22%40.49%37.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

21 corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Bovada1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -7.08%E -4.69%K -13.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV +1.93%E +0.730%K +1.17%G +0.023%4.0%2026-04-14 02:04
Pinnacle1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -4.01%E -2.57%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV +0.010%E +0.004%K +0.006%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-14 02:00
Everygame1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -4.01%E -2.57%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV +0.010%E +0.004%K +0.006%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-13 21:59
Caesars1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -5.85%E -3.82%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -0.759%E -0.294%K -0.481%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-13 06:30
BetUS1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -4.01%E -2.57%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -1.91%E -0.750%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-13 22:04
BetAnything1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -4.01%E -2.57%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -1.91%E -0.750%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-14 02:05
GTbets1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.24%E -3.40%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.91%E -0.750%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-13 22:00
theScore Bet1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.24%E -3.40%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.91%E -0.750%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-14 02:00
Fliff1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -5.85%E -3.82%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -1.91%E -0.750%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-14 00:50
DraftKings1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -5.24%E -3.40%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -2.30%E -0.905%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-13 09:24
LowVig.ag1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.39%E -2.16%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -2.68%E -1.06%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-14 02:05
BetOnline.ag1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.39%E -2.16%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -2.68%E -1.06%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-14 02:05
Fanatics1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.01%E -2.57%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.84%E -1.53%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-13 22:00
Bet Right1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.01%E -2.57%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.84%E -1.53%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-14 02:00
Paddy Power1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.01%E -2.57%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.84%E -1.53%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-13 21:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.01%E -2.57%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.84%E -1.53%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-14 02:00
William Hill1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.85%E -3.82%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.84%E -1.53%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-14 02:05
MyBookie.ag1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -5.24%E -3.40%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -4.22%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-14 02:00
ReBet1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -3.39%E -2.16%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -4.61%E -1.86%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-14 01:59
FanDuel1.56I 64.10%NM 61.19%EV -4.01%E -2.57%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV -5.38%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-13 17:39
SportsBet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -4.62%E -2.98%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -5.38%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 01:30
PointsBet (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.39%E -2.16%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.76%E -2.35%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-13 10:45
Coral1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.39%E -2.16%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.76%E -2.35%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-13 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.39%E -2.16%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.76%E -2.35%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-13 16:30
Bally Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.39%E -2.16%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.76%E -2.35%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-13 23:35
betPARX1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.39%E -2.16%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.76%E -2.35%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-13 23:34
BetMGM1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.01%E -2.57%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.76%E -2.35%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-13 16:30
BetRivers1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.01%E -2.57%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.76%E -2.35%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-14 00:49
Betr (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.62%E -2.98%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.76%E -2.35%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 17:30
PlayUp1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.62%E -2.98%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.76%E -2.35%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 01:30
Bet Victor1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.62%E -2.98%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.76%E -2.35%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 01:59
Hard Rock Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.85%E -3.82%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.76%E -2.35%K -3.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-14 02:04
Betsson1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.01%E -2.57%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.53%E -2.69%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 01:30
NordicBet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.01%E -2.57%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.53%E -2.69%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 01:30
TAB1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.62%E -2.98%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.68%E -3.20%K -5.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-13 00:34
Ladbrokes (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.62%E -2.98%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.68%E -3.20%K -5.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-13 14:44
Neds1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.62%E -2.98%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.68%E -3.20%K -5.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-13 14:45
NetBet (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 61.66%EV -12.01%E -8.40%K -27.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.34%EV -11.53%E -5.01%K -8.87%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-14 01:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (9)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly1.59I 62.89%NM 62.94%2.70I 37.04%NM 37.06%-0.1%2026-04-14 01:59
Novig1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%0.9%2026-04-14 02:05
Polymarket1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-04-14 02:05
Kalshi1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-04-14 02:05
Smarkets1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77%1.1%2026-04-14 02:05
Matchbook1.56I 64.10%NM 63.21%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.79%1.4%2026-04-14 02:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.03%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.97%1.7%2026-04-14 02:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.03%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.97%1.7%2026-04-14 02:05
ProphetX1.56I 64.10%NM 62.68%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.32%2.3%2026-04-14 02:05

Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (21)

Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.

CorredorOpción 1Opción 2Opción 3Margen ▲Actualizado
Unibet (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 49.15%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.07%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.78%3.3%2026-04-13 23:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 49.15%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.07%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.78%3.3%2026-04-13 23:35
Svenska Spel1.97I 50.76%NM 49.15%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.07%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.78%3.3%2026-04-13 23:35
ATG (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 49.15%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.07%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.78%3.3%2026-04-13 23:35
Marathon Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 49.25%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.27%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.48%4.7%2026-04-14 01:59
1xBet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.98%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.92%4.32I 23.15%NM 22.10%4.7%2026-04-14 01:59
Coolbet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%5.0%2026-04-14 01:59
Unibet1.94I 51.55%NM 49.00%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.37%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.63%5.2%2026-04-13 23:40
Unibet (NL)1.93I 51.81%NM 49.12%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%5.5%2026-04-13 23:35
Grosvenor1.93I 51.81%NM 49.12%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%5.5%2026-04-13 23:35
Casumo1.93I 51.81%NM 49.12%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%5.5%2026-04-13 23:35
Tipico (DE)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%6.7%2026-04-14 02:00
TABtouch1.92I 52.08%NM 48.78%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.84%6.8%2026-04-13 23:34
LeoVegas1.89I 52.91%NM 49.17%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%7.6%2026-04-13 23:35
Betway1.87I 53.48%NM 49.52%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%8.0%2026-04-14 02:05
Unibet (FR)1.89I 52.91%NM 48.96%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%8.1%2026-04-14 01:59
Betclic (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.53%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.02%8.1%2026-04-14 02:04
Winamax (DE)1.84I 54.35%NM 50.18%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.52%8.3%2026-04-14 02:05
Codere (IT)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%8.8%2026-04-14 01:59
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 49.93%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%8.9%2026-04-14 02:05
PMU (FR)1.82I 54.95%NM 48.91%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.26%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%12.3%2026-04-13 23:35