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Vegas Golden Knights v Washington Capitals
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vegas Golden Knights (Local)
Prediction 58.15%1.72fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -4.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.43%58.19%58.22%59.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.651.651.6762.50%60.77%60.61%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Washington Capitals (Visit)
Prediction 41.85%2.39fair odd
EV -0.818%
Edge -0.345%
Kelly -0.597%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.81%41.81%41.78%43.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.282.302.3746.51%43.79%43.48%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vegas Golden Knights (Local): 58.15%; Washington Capitals (Visit): 41.85%. For Washington Capitals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.39. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.37, with an expected value of -0.818%; they did not produce positive expected value.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.89%E -1.73%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.75%E -1.63%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-27 18:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.89%E -1.73%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.75%E -1.63%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-28 02:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.89%E -1.73%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.75%E -1.63%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-27 21:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.89%E -1.73%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.84%E -2.60%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-27 19:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.89%E -1.73%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.84%E -2.60%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-27 19:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.89%E -1.73%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.84%E -2.60%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-28 01:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.89%E -1.73%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.84%E -2.60%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-28 01:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.89%E -1.73%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.84%E -2.60%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-28 01:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -3.47%E -2.09%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.84%E -2.60%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-27 17:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -3.47%E -2.09%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -10.02%E -4.66%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.96%EV -4.05%E -2.46%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 41.04%EV -0.818%E -0.345%K -0.597%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-03-27 22:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.85%EV -4.05%E -2.46%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.15%EV -1.24%E -0.524%K -0.909%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-27 22:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.85%EV -4.05%E -2.46%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.15%EV -1.24%E -0.524%K -0.909%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-27 22:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -4.05%E -2.46%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -1.65%E -0.704%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-28 02:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -4.05%E -2.46%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -2.07%E -0.886%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-27 22:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.05%E -2.46%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.75%E -1.63%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-27 18:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.05%E -2.46%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.75%E -1.63%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-27 16:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.05%E -2.46%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.75%E -1.63%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-27 22:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.05%E -2.46%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.84%E -2.60%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 19:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.05%E -2.46%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.93%E -3.61%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-28 01:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.05%E -2.46%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.93%E -3.61%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-28 01:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -4.63%E -2.82%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -3.75%E -1.63%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-27 22:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.63%E -2.82%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -4.58%E -2.01%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-28 02:35 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.63%E -2.82%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -4.58%E -2.01%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-28 02:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -5.21%E -3.20%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -3.75%E -1.63%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-27 22:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -5.21%E -3.20%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -4.17%E -1.82%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-27 22:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -5.21%E -3.20%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.00%E -2.20%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-27 22:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -5.21%E -3.20%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.00%E -2.20%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-27 22:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.80%E -3.58%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -1.65%E -0.704%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-27 22:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.80%E -3.58%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -1.65%E -0.704%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-27 22:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.80%E -3.58%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.75%E -1.63%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-27 16:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.80%E -3.58%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.75%E -1.63%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-27 16:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.80%E -3.58%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.75%E -1.63%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-27 16:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.80%E -3.58%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.84%E -2.60%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-27 22:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.96%E -4.35%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.93%E -3.61%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-28 01:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 58.05% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.95% | 0.2% | 2026-03-28 02:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-03-27 16:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.42% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.58% | 1.9% | 2026-03-28 02:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23% | 1.9% | 2026-03-27 23:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44% | 2.3% | 2026-03-28 01:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44% | 2.3% | 2026-03-27 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.71% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.29% | 2.6% | 2026-03-28 03:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.44% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.56% | 3.7% | 2026-03-28 02:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77% | 4.1% | 2026-03-28 02:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.20% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.29% | 4.31I 23.20%NM 22.51% | 3.1% | 2026-03-28 01:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.13% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.40% | 4.2% | 2026-03-28 02:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.20% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.42% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.37% | 4.3% | 2026-03-27 19:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.20% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.42% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.37% | 4.3% | 2026-03-27 19:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.20% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.42% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.37% | 4.3% | 2026-03-27 19:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.20% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.42% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.37% | 4.3% | 2026-03-27 19:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.17% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.34% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.49% | 4.6% | 2026-03-28 01:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.44% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.29% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.27% | 4.8% | 2026-03-27 19:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.44% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.29% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.27% | 4.8% | 2026-03-27 19:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.44% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.29% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.27% | 4.8% | 2026-03-27 19:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.44% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.29% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.27% | 4.8% | 2026-03-27 19:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.78% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.71% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.51% | 5.0% | 2026-03-28 02:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58% | 6.0% | 2026-03-28 01:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.30% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44% | 6.6% | 2026-03-27 19:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.30% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22% | 7.7% | 2026-03-27 19:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08% | 8.3% | 2026-03-28 01:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 45.76% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58% | 8.7% | 2026-03-27 22:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.92% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73% | 10.0% | 2026-03-27 18:55 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 45.63% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.78% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.59% | 10.1% | 2026-03-28 02:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 45.63% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.78% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.59% | 10.1% | 2026-03-28 02:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 45.49% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 31.33% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.18% | 18.2% | 2026-03-27 22:45 |