The School of Odds
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Vegas Golden Knights v Pittsburgh Penguins

Kickoff: 2026-03-13 02:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vegas Golden Knights (Local)

Prediction 61.17%1.63fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.946%
Kelly -2.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.74%61.12%61.22%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.561.571.6169.93%63.92%63.69%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit)

Prediction 38.83%2.58fair odd
EV -0.973%
Edge -0.382%
Kelly -0.628%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.50%38.88%38.78%40.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.272.452.452.5544.05%40.81%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vegas Golden Knights (Local): 61.17%; Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit): 38.83%. For Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -0.973%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Everygame🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -1.52%E -0.946%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-13 01:39
Pinnacle🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.22%EV -2.75%E -1.73%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.78%EV -2.53%E -1.01%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-13 02:00
BetAnything🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -2.75%E -1.73%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -2.92%E -1.17%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-13 00:59
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.74%EV -2.75%E -1.73%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.26%EV -4.47%E -1.82%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-13 00:59
GTbets🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -2.75%E -1.73%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-13 02:00
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -2.75%E -1.73%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -6.02%E -2.49%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-13 00:59
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -2.75%E -1.73%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-13 01:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.37%EV -3.36%E -2.13%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.63%EV -2.53%E -1.01%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-13 01:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.37%EV -3.36%E -2.13%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.63%EV -2.53%E -1.01%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-13 01:40
Bovada🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.99%EV -3.36%E -2.13%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.01%EV -4.08%E -1.65%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-13 01:58
Bet Right🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -3.36%E -2.13%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-13 01:39
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -2.92%E -1.17%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-13 02:00
ReBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.33%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.67%EV -3.30%E -1.33%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-13 01:59
Caesars🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -3.69%E -1.49%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-13 01:37
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-13 02:00
Bally Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-13 02:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-13 01:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-13 02:00
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-13 02:00
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-13 02:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -6.41%E -2.66%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-13 01:59
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.58%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-13 01:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -8.74%E -3.72%K -6.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 02:00
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -8.74%E -3.72%K -6.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 01:59
Fanatics🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.58%E -2.94%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.92%E -1.17%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-13 01:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.58%E -2.94%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.92%E -1.17%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-13 01:59
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.58%E -2.94%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-13 01:56
Betsson🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -4.58%E -2.94%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -6.02%E -2.49%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-13 02:00
NordicBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -4.58%E -2.94%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -6.02%E -2.49%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-13 02:00
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.19%E -3.35%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-13 02:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.19%E -3.35%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-13 02:00
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.19%E -3.35%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 02:00
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.19%E -3.35%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -10.68%E -4.64%K -8.22%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-13 01:58
Paddy Power🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.80%E -3.77%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -0.973%E -0.382%K -0.628%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-13 01:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.80%E -3.77%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -0.973%E -0.382%K -0.628%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-13 01:00
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.42%E -4.19%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -0.973%E -0.382%K -0.628%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-13 01:40
SportsBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -6.42%E -4.19%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -2.14%E -0.849%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-13 01:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 61.35%EV -12.53%E -8.76%K -29.15%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 38.65%EV -11.85%E -5.22%K -9.33%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-13 01:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.61I 62.11%NM 62.21%2.65I 37.74%NM 37.79%-0.2%2026-03-13 01:59
ProphetX◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.77%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.23%0.3%2026-03-13 01:30
Novig◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.48%2.51I 39.84%NM 39.52%0.8%2026-03-13 01:58
Polymarket◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-03-13 01:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-03-13 01:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-03-13 02:00
Matchbook◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-03-13 01:40
Smarkets◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.34%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.66%1.7%2026-03-13 01:40
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%2.1%2026-03-13 02:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.96%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%3.2%2026-03-13 01:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.96%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%3.2%2026-03-13 01:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.96%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%3.2%2026-03-13 01:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.96%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%3.2%2026-03-13 02:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.59%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.30%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12%3.9%2026-03-13 01:59
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.79%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.15%4.54I 22.03%NM 21.06%4.6%2026-03-13 01:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.22%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.83%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.95%4.7%2026-03-13 01:59
Coolbet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.04%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%5.1%2026-03-13 01:59
Unibet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-03-13 02:00
Casumo🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-03-13 02:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-03-13 01:59
Grosvenor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-03-13 01:59
TABtouch🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.95%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%6.5%2026-03-13 02:00
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.99%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%6.9%2026-03-13 01:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%6.9%2026-03-13 01:14
LeoVegas🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.74%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%7.5%2026-03-13 01:59
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.23%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.32%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%8.6%2026-03-13 01:59
Codere (IT)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.23%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.32%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%8.6%2026-03-13 01:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.65%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%8.7%2026-03-13 02:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.92%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%11.1%2026-03-13 01:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.92%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%11.1%2026-03-13 01:56
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.26%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.82%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.91%13.8%2026-03-13 02:00