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Vegas Golden Knights v Buffalo Sabres
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vegas Golden Knights (Local)
Prediction 54.56%1.83fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -3.70%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.95%54.66%54.52%55.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.751.751.7862.11%57.19%57.14%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Buffalo Sabres (Visit)
Prediction 45.44%2.20fair odd
EV -0.935%
Edge -0.429%
Kelly -0.792%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.53%45.34%45.48%46.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.102.102.1851.81%47.62%47.62%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vegas Golden Knights (Local): 54.56%; Buffalo Sabres (Visit): 45.44%. For Buffalo Sabres (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.20. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.18, with an expected value of -0.935%; they did not produce positive expected value.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.94%EV -2.89%E -1.62%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.06%EV -1.39%E -0.640%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-03-18 01:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.43%E -1.94%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-17 15:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.43%E -1.94%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-17 15:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.43%E -1.94%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-17 22:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.43%E -1.94%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-18 01:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.43%E -1.94%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-17 18:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.43%E -1.94%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-17 22:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.43%E -1.94%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-17 15:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.43%E -1.94%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-17 21:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.43%E -1.94%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-17 15:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-17 22:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -4.52%E -2.59%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -0.935%E -0.429%K -0.792%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-18 00:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -4.52%E -2.59%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -0.935%E -0.429%K -0.792%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-18 00:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -4.52%E -2.59%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -3.66%E -1.73%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-17 23:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -4.52%E -2.59%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -3.66%E -1.73%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-17 23:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -4.52%E -2.59%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -3.66%E -1.73%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-17 22:14 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.52%E -2.59%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-18 00:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.52%E -2.59%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-17 16:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.52%E -2.59%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-17 16:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.52%E -2.59%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-17 22:53 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.52%E -2.59%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.48%E -2.63%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-17 22:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.52%E -2.59%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.48%E -2.63%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-17 22:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.52%E -2.59%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.48%E -2.63%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-17 22:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.52%E -2.59%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.48%E -2.63%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-17 21:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.52%E -2.59%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.84%E -3.34%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-17 19:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.52%E -2.59%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.84%E -3.34%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-16 18:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.52%E -2.59%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.84%E -3.34%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-17 18:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.52%E -2.59%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.84%E -3.34%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-17 18:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.30%E -1.07%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-17 22:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.30%E -1.07%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-17 22:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.30%E -1.07%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-18 00:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -2.75%E -1.29%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-17 22:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -3.66%E -1.73%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-17 23:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-18 00:55 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-17 22:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.62%E -3.25%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-17 16:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.25%E -4.27%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.84%E -3.34%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-16 14:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.52%EV -12.16%E -7.55%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 45.48%EV -12.30%E -6.37%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-17 23:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41% | 0.1% | 2026-03-18 00:55 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41% | 0.1% | 2026-03-17 22:30 |
| Novig◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.50% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.50% | 0.8% | 2026-03-18 01:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61% | 1.0% | 2026-03-17 18:40 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61% | 1.0% | 2026-03-17 20:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.64% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.36% | 1.1% | 2026-03-18 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.64% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.36% | 1.1% | 2026-03-18 00:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.64% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.36% | 1.1% | 2026-03-18 00:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.55% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.45% | 1.9% | 2026-03-18 00:55 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.46% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.00% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.54% | 3.2% | 2026-03-17 23:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.46% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.00% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.54% | 3.2% | 2026-03-17 23:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.46% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.00% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.54% | 3.2% | 2026-03-17 23:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.46% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.00% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.54% | 3.2% | 2026-03-17 23:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.46% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.37% | 4.37I 22.88%NM 22.18% | 3.2% | 2026-03-18 01:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.19% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.25% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.56% | 4.3% | 2026-03-18 00:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.42% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.36% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.22% | 4.7% | 2026-03-18 00:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.26% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.61% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13% | 5.1% | 2026-03-18 01:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.64% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.98% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38% | 5.1% | 2026-03-17 23:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.64% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.98% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38% | 5.1% | 2026-03-17 23:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.64% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.98% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38% | 5.1% | 2026-03-17 23:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.64% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.98% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38% | 5.1% | 2026-03-17 23:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.37% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.22% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41% | 6.3% | 2026-03-17 23:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.27% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25% | 7.0% | 2026-03-17 19:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17% | 7.9% | 2026-03-18 00:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.21% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55% | 8.2% | 2026-03-17 23:30 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.22% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.81% | 8.2% | 2026-03-18 00:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 34.37% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94% | 9.0% | 2026-03-18 00:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81% | 9.2% | 2026-03-18 00:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.69% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.47% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84% | 9.5% | 2026-03-18 00:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 42.68% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.01% | 10.0% | 2026-03-18 00:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.75% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.06% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.19% | 14.1% | 2026-03-18 00:55 |