The School of Odds
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Toronto Maple Leafs v Philadelphia Flyers

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 00:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Maple Leafs (Local)

Prediction 54.77%1.83fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -2.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.95%54.88%54.78%56.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.741.741.7961.73%57.51%57.47%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Philadelphia Flyers (Visit)

Prediction 45.23%2.21fair odd
EV -0.484%
Edge -0.220%
Kelly -0.403%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.59%45.12%45.22%46.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.112.102.2052.08%47.31%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Maple Leafs (Local): 54.77%; Philadelphia Flyers (Visit): 45.23%. For Philadelphia Flyers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.21. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.20, with an expected value of -0.484%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.45%EV -1.97%E -1.10%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.55%EV -3.20%E -1.49%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-02 23:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -3.07%E -1.73%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV -2.75%E -1.28%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-03 00:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -3.07%E -1.73%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV -2.75%E -1.28%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-03 00:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.07%E -1.73%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.01%E -2.38%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-01 15:19
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.07%E -1.73%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.01%E -2.38%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-01 23:35
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.07%E -1.73%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.01%E -2.38%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-02 19:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.07%E -1.73%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.01%E -2.38%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-01 23:34
MyBookie.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.61%E -2.05%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -6.36%E -3.07%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-02 23:48
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -2.75%E -1.28%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-03 00:04
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -3.65%E -1.71%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-03 00:15
FanDuel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -4.10%E -1.94%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-03 00:15
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.01%E -2.38%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-03 00:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.01%E -2.38%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-03 00:15
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.91%E -2.84%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-02 23:49
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.91%E -2.84%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-02 23:50
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.91%E -2.84%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-02 23:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.27%E -3.55%K -6.92%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-02 03:09
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.27%E -3.55%K -6.92%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-02 11:54
GTbets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.71%E -2.71%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.75%E -1.28%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-03 00:15
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.71%E -2.71%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.75%E -1.28%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-03 00:15
Everygame🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.71%E -2.71%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.75%E -1.28%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-03 00:15
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -4.71%E -2.71%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -3.20%E -1.49%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-03 00:15
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.71%E -2.71%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.01%E -2.38%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-02 14:54
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.71%E -2.71%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.01%E -2.38%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-03 00:15
SportsBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.26%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.01%E -2.38%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-03 00:15
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.26%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.01%E -2.38%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-03 00:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.26%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.01%E -2.38%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-03 00:15
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.26%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.01%E -2.38%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-02 21:15
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.26%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.27%E -3.55%K -6.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-03 00:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.26%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.27%E -3.55%K -6.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-03 00:15
Bovada🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -6.35%E -3.71%K -8.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -0.484%E -0.220%K -0.403%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-03 00:15
BetAnything🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -6.35%E -3.71%K -8.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -0.484%E -0.220%K -0.403%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-03 00:15
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.35%E -3.71%K -8.95%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.75%E -1.28%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-03 00:15
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -0.484%E -0.220%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-02 23:40
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -0.484%E -0.220%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-02 23:40
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -0.484%E -0.220%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-02 23:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.24%EV -11.28%E -6.96%K -18.19%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.76%EV -13.15%E -6.85%K -14.29%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-02 23:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41%0.1%2026-03-03 00:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41%0.1%2026-03-03 00:15
BetOpenly◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41%0.1%2026-03-02 20:04
Matchbook◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%0.5%2026-03-03 00:15
ProphetX◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.25%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.75%0.7%2026-03-02 23:40
Novig◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.50%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.50%0.8%2026-03-02 21:20
Polymarket◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-03-02 18:19
Smarkets◎1.80I 55.56%NM 54.55%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.45%1.9%2026-03-03 00:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.88%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.37%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.75%3.2%2026-03-03 00:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.98%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.23%3.4%2026-03-02 23:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.98%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.23%3.4%2026-03-02 23:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.98%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.23%3.4%2026-03-02 23:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.98%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.23%3.4%2026-03-02 23:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.35%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.90%4.0%2026-03-02 20:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.24%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.01%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.75%4.6%2026-03-03 00:15
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.02%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%5.0%2026-03-02 23:49
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.73%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07%5.4%2026-03-02 23:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.73%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07%5.4%2026-03-02 23:40
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.73%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07%5.4%2026-03-02 23:40
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.73%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07%5.4%2026-03-02 23:40
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.22%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.66%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%6.3%2026-03-02 23:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.63%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.50%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%6.6%2026-03-02 18:44
LeoVegas🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.18%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.66%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%7.4%2026-03-02 23:40
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%7.9%2026-03-02 23:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.81%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.74%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%8.6%2026-03-02 20:54
Codere (IT)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.61%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.09%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%8.6%2026-03-02 23:50
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.72%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.02%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%8.9%2026-03-03 00:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.62%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.19%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%9.1%2026-03-02 23:48
Unibet (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.44%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.27%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.29%10.1%2026-03-02 23:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.90%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.00%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%11.0%2026-03-02 23:40