The School of Odds

Toronto Maple Leafs v Montréal Canadiens

2026-09-29 23:10 UTC — NHL

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

5 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Toronto Maple Leafs (Local)

Prediction 50.44%1.98fair odd
EV -3.66%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -4.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%50.44%50.27%51.05%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.831.871.871.9155%53%53%52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Montréal Canadiens (Visit)

Prediction 49.56%2.02fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -3.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.95%49.56%49.73%50.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.851.911.911.9554%52%52%51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.66%E -1.92%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.34%E -2.80%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-15 22:20
William Hill1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.66%E -1.92%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.34%E -2.80%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-16 01:55
MyBookie.ag1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -5.17%E -2.75%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.35%E -2.25%K -4.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-16 02:15
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.68%E -3.04%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.36%E -1.72%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-15 22:20
GTbets1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.68%E -3.04%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.36%E -1.72%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-15 22:20
Bet Victor1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -7.70%E -4.21%K -9.27%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -8.31%E -4.49%K -9.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-16 00:03
betano_uk1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -7.70%E -4.21%K -9.27%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -8.31%E -4.49%K -9.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-16 02:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (5)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.30%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.50%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.19%6.0%2026-07-15 22:20
Betclic (FR)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.47%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%7.0%2026-07-16 01:40
Winamax (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.58%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.74%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%9.8%2026-07-16 01:49
Unibet (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.14%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.29%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.58%13.6%2026-07-16 01:30
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 39.44%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.54%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.02%17.9%2026-07-16 01:49