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Toronto Maple Leafs v Montréal Canadiens

2026-09-29 23:10 UTC — NHL

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Maple Leafs (Local)

Prediction 50.92%1.96fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -3.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%50.81%50.98%51.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.881.871.9154.64%53.27%53.48%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Montréal Canadiens (Visit)

Prediction 49.08%2.04fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -3.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.95%49.19%49.02%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.931.951.9653.48%51.80%51.28%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Toronto Maple Leafs (Local): 50.92%; Montréal Canadiens (Visit): 49.08%. For Toronto Maple Leafs (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.96. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.91, with an expected value of -2.75%; they do not produce positive expected value.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.91I 52.36%NM 50.65%EV -2.75%E -1.44%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.35%EV -3.79%E -1.94%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-18 12:45
LowVig.ag1.91I 52.36%NM 50.65%EV -2.75%E -1.44%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.35%EV -3.79%E -1.94%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-18 12:50
William Hill1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.75%E -1.44%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.25%E -3.27%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-16 01:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.75%E -1.44%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.25%E -3.27%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-19 00:45
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.75%E -1.44%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.25%E -3.27%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-19 01:00
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.75%E -1.44%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.25%E -3.27%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-19 04:30
FanDuel1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -4.28%E -2.28%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -4.28%E -2.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-28 17:09
Neds1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -4.28%E -2.28%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -7.72%E -4.11%K -8.77%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-19 00:44
Ladbrokes (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -4.28%E -2.28%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -7.72%E -4.11%K -8.77%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-19 00:45
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.79%E -2.56%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.28%E -2.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-15 22:20
Caesars1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.79%E -2.56%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.28%E -2.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 17:58
GTbets1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.79%E -2.56%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.28%E -2.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-15 22:20
PointsBet (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.79%E -2.56%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.28%E -2.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 15:25
Paddy Power1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.79%E -2.56%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.28%E -2.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-17 19:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.79%E -2.56%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.28%E -2.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-17 21:59
Hard Rock Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.79%E -2.56%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.28%E -2.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 04:20
betPARX1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.79%E -2.56%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.28%E -2.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-21 16:20
Bally Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.79%E -2.56%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.28%E -2.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-21 16:19
BetRivers1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.79%E -2.56%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.28%E -2.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-21 17:50
theScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.79%E -2.56%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.28%E -2.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-24 16:05
NordicBet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -4.79%E -2.56%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -5.27%E -2.73%K -5.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 17:30
Betsson1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -4.79%E -2.56%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -5.27%E -2.73%K -5.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 17:30
SportsBet1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -5.30%E -2.85%K -6.16%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -4.78%E -2.46%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 17:10
Bet Victor1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -6.83%E -3.73%K -8.22%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -8.21%E -4.39%K -9.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-17 18:23
betano_uk1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -6.83%E -3.73%K -8.22%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -8.21%E -4.39%K -9.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-17 18:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet2.48I 40.32%NM 39.14%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.07%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.79%3.0%2026-08-04 23:19
Marathon Bet2.44I 40.98%NM 39.17%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.08%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.76%4.6%2026-08-04 23:14
Casumo2.43I 41.15%NM 39.22%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.13%4.9%2026-07-21 16:20
Unibet (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 39.22%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.13%4.9%2026-07-21 16:20
Grosvenor2.43I 41.15%NM 39.22%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.13%4.9%2026-07-21 16:20
LeoVegas (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 39.22%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.13%4.9%2026-07-21 16:20
Unibet (NL)2.43I 41.15%NM 39.22%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.13%4.9%2026-07-21 16:19
Svenska Spel2.43I 41.15%NM 39.22%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.13%4.9%2026-07-21 16:20
ATG (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 39.22%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.13%4.9%2026-07-21 16:20
Unibet2.43I 41.15%NM 39.22%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.13%4.9%2026-07-21 16:30
Coolbet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.82%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.17%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.01%5.5%2026-07-30 23:05
Unibet (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.29%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.72%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%6.1%2026-07-17 18:44
TABtouch2.40I 41.67%NM 39.12%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.81%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%6.5%2026-07-21 16:25
Betway2.35I 42.55%NM 39.27%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%8.4%2026-07-25 10:20
Winamax (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.69%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%9.5%2026-07-17 18:44
PMU (FR)2.28I 43.86%NM 39.15%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.73%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.12%12.0%2026-07-24 16:00
Betclic (FR)2.27I 44.05%NM 39.01%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.68%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.30%12.9%2026-07-18 17:05
Unibet (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.22%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.55%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.22%13.3%2026-07-17 18:49
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 39.21%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.48%18.6%2026-07-17 18:49