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Toronto Maple Leafs v Montréal Canadiens
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Toronto Maple Leafs (Local)
Predicción 50.30%1.99momio equitativo
EV -1.92%
Ventaja -0.983%
Kelly -2.02%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.33%50.41%50.00%52.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.801.891.901.9555.56%52.83%52.63%51.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Montréal Canadiens (Visitante)
Predicción 49.70%2.01momio equitativo
EV +0.396%
Ventaja +0.196%
Kelly +0.388%
Crecimiento +0.002%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.02
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.40%49.59%50.00%50.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.801.911.912.0255.56%52.22%52.36%49.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Toronto Maple Leafs (Local): 50.30%; Montréal Canadiens (Visitante): 49.70%. Para Montréal Canadiens (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.01. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.02, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.396%.
21 corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (35 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -8.46%E -4.65%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV +0.396%E +0.196%K +0.388%G +0.002% | 4.5% | 2026-09-29 23:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -7.95%E -4.35%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -0.598%E -0.299%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.16%EV -4.93%E -2.61%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.84%EV -1.59%E -0.804%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.16%EV -4.93%E -2.61%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.84%EV -1.59%E -0.804%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -1.92%E -0.983%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -3.08%E -1.58%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-09-29 23:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.94%E -3.18%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.08%E -1.58%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-29 19:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.94%E -3.18%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.08%E -1.58%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.95%E -3.75%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.08%E -1.58%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 23:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -5.94%E -3.18%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -4.08%E -2.11%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 23:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -3.43%E -1.78%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.38%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -3.43%E -1.78%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.38%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -3.43%E -1.78%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.38%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-29 19:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -2.92%E -1.51%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -5.07%E -2.66%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-29 04:02 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.93%E -2.06%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.66%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-28 14:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.93%E -2.06%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.66%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-29 17:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.93%E -2.06%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.66%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-29 23:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.93%E -2.06%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.66%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-29 17:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.93%E -2.06%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.66%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-29 17:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.93%E -2.06%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.66%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-29 17:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.93%E -2.06%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.66%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-29 17:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.93%E -2.06%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.66%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-28 16:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.93%E -2.06%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.66%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-29 12:15 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.93%E -2.06%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.66%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-29 11:38 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.94%E -3.18%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.07%E -2.66%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.95%E -4.35%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.07%E -2.66%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.33%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.57%E -2.93%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-28 00:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.33%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.57%E -2.93%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 23:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.33%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.57%E -2.93%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-28 11:30 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -2.92%E -1.51%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -6.56%E -3.49%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-29 23:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -2.92%E -1.51%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -6.56%E -3.49%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-29 23:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.44%E -2.89%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.56%E -3.49%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-29 17:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.44%E -2.89%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.56%E -3.49%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-29 17:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -4.43%E -2.33%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -8.05%E -4.35%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-29 22:48 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -4.43%E -2.33%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -8.05%E -4.35%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-29 22:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -9.46%E -5.26%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -10.54%E -5.85%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-29 22:50 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (9)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25% | 0.5% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 1.0% | 2026-09-29 23:01 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.0% | 2026-09-29 23:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.36% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.64% | 2.3% | 2026-09-29 23:10 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.48% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.52% | 3.6% | 2026-09-29 22:59 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47% | 6.9% | 2026-09-29 23:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.00% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.00% | 8.7% | 2026-09-29 23:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.14% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.86% | 9.6% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.14% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.86% | 9.6% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (21)
Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.
| Corredor | Opción 1 | Opción 2 | Opción 3 | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.01% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.01% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99% | 3.4% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.01% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.01% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99% | 3.4% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.01% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.01% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99% | 3.4% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.01% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.01% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99% | 3.4% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.25% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.51% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24% | 4.6% | 2026-09-29 23:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.59% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.95% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.46% | 4.7% | 2026-09-29 22:58 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.80% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.61% | 4.42I 22.62%NM 21.59% | 4.8% | 2026-09-29 22:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.08% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.08% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.83% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.08% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.08% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.83% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.08% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.08% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.83% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.08% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.08% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.83% | 5.3% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.50% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.92% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57% | 5.5% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82% | 6.6% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.81% | 6.6% | 2026-09-29 20:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.47% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26% | 7.0% | 2026-09-29 23:08 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.27% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07% | 8.4% | 2026-09-29 23:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.27% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07% | 8.4% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.14% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.45% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.42% | 8.8% | 2026-09-29 23:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.73% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.93% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34% | 9.9% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.12% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.12% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76% | 12.1% | 2026-09-29 23:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.78% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.46% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.76% | 12.6% | 2026-09-29 22:59 |