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Toronto Maple Leafs v Dallas Stars
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toronto Maple Leafs (Local)
Prediction 36.36%2.75fair odd
EV -0.384%
Edge -0.140%
Kelly -0.221%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.53%36.38%36.31%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.422.612.622.7441.32%38.31%38.17%36.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Dallas Stars (Visit)
Prediction 63.64%1.57fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -4.95%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%63.62%63.69%64.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.501.501.5372.46%66.62%66.67%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Maple Leafs (Local): 36.36%; Dallas Stars (Visit): 63.64%. For Toronto Maple Leafs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.74, with an expected value of -0.384%; they did not produce positive expected value.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.53%EV -0.384%E -0.140%K -0.221%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.47%EV -3.90%E -2.58%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-04-13 23:36 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -1.84%E -0.681%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.53%E -3.02%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-13 23:37 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.69I 37.17%NM 36.10%EV -2.20%E -0.818%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.90%EV -3.26%E -2.15%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-13 23:37 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.69I 37.17%NM 36.10%EV -2.20%E -0.818%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.90%EV -3.26%E -2.15%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-13 23:37 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.97%EV -2.93%E -1.10%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.03%EV -4.53%E -3.02%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.97%EV -2.93%E -1.10%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.03%EV -4.53%E -3.02%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -3.66%E -1.38%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -2.63%E -1.72%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-13 23:38 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -3.66%E -1.38%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -2.63%E -1.72%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-13 23:36 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -3.66%E -1.38%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.90%E -2.58%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-13 23:37 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -3.66%E -1.38%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.90%E -2.58%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.66%E -1.38%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.53%E -3.02%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-13 23:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.66%E -1.38%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.53%E -3.02%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -3.66%E -1.38%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -5.17%E -3.47%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-13 23:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -4.02%E -1.52%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -3.90%E -2.58%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-13 23:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -4.02%E -1.52%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -4.53%E -3.02%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -4.38%E -1.67%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -5.17%E -3.47%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-13 23:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -4.38%E -1.67%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -5.17%E -3.47%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -4.75%E -1.81%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -3.90%E -2.58%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-13 23:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -4.75%E -1.81%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -3.90%E -2.58%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 36.50%EV -5.11%E -1.96%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.50%EV -4.53%E -3.02%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-13 23:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -3.26%E -2.15%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -3.90%E -2.58%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -3.90%E -2.58%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.53%E -3.02%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-13 23:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.53%E -3.02%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-13 23:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.81%E -3.92%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-13 23:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.81%E -3.92%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%EV -6.20%E -2.40%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.24%EV -4.53%E -3.02%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-13 23:36 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%EV -6.20%E -2.40%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.24%EV -4.53%E -3.02%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-13 23:36 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.29%E -2.86%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.53%E -3.02%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-13 23:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.29%E -2.86%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.53%E -3.02%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-13 23:37 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.29%E -2.86%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.53%E -3.02%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-13 23:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.29%E -2.86%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.53%E -3.02%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-13 23:37 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.63%E -1.72%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-13 23:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.53%E -3.02%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.53%E -3.02%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-13 23:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 36.32%EV -12.02%E -4.97%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 63.68%EV -12.17%E -8.82%K -32.03%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-04-13 23:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.47% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.53% | -0.0% | 2026-04-13 23:29 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35% | 0.9% | 2026-04-13 23:40 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 1.1% | 2026-04-13 23:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.98% | 3.1% | 2026-04-13 23:40 |
| Novig◎ | 2.61I 38.31%NM 36.96% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.04% | 3.7% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.08% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.92% | 4.2% | 2026-04-13 23:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44% | 4.4% | 2026-04-13 23:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 36.95% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.05% | 5.7% | 2026-04-13 23:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 37.11% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.89% | 10.4% | 2026-04-13 23:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.25% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.67% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.08% | 2.9% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.25% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.67% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.08% | 2.9% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.25% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.67% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.08% | 2.9% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.25% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.67% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.08% | 2.9% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.14% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.63% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.23% | 4.7% | 2026-04-13 23:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.85% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.53% | 4.63I 21.60%NM 20.61% | 4.8% | 2026-04-13 23:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.58% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.28% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14% | 5.1% | 2026-04-13 23:36 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.43% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.70% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.87% | 5.1% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.81% | 5.4% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.81% | 5.4% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.81% | 5.4% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.65% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86% | 6.4% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27% | 6.9% | 2026-04-13 23:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.80% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94% | 7.3% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66% | 7.4% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38% | 7.5% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.68% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51% | 8.1% | 2026-04-13 23:28 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.73% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.82% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45% | 8.4% | 2026-04-13 23:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.18% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41% | 8.9% | 2026-04-13 23:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.35% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76% | 9.4% | 2026-04-13 23:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.94% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.79% | 11.9% | 2026-04-13 23:39 |