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Toronto Maple Leafs v Buffalo Sabres

2026-10-15 23:10 UTC — NHL

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Maple Leafs (Local)

Prediction 52.27%1.91fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -2.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%52.27%52.22%53.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.821.831.8757.14%54.86%54.64%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Buffalo Sabres (Visit)

Prediction 47.73%2.10fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -2.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.75%47.73%47.78%48.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.941.992.002.0551.55%50.18%50.00%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Toronto Maple Leafs (Local): 52.27%; Buffalo Sabres (Visit): 47.73%. For Buffalo Sabres (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.10. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.05, with an expected value of -2.16%; they do not produce positive expected value.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.25%E -1.20%K -2.59%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.93%E -3.56%K -7.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-14 17:39
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%EV -3.29%E -1.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%EV -2.64%E -1.29%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-14 19:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.32%EV -3.29%E -1.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.68%EV -3.11%E -1.53%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-14 17:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.32%EV -3.29%E -1.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.68%EV -3.11%E -1.53%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-14 17:29
DraftKings🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.29%E -1.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.50%E -2.78%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-14 17:30
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -3.29%E -1.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.98%E -3.03%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-14 20:25
Bally Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -3.29%E -1.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.98%E -3.03%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-14 20:25
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -3.29%E -1.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.98%E -3.03%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-14 20:25
Bet Right🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.21%EV -3.82%E -2.07%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.79%EV -4.07%E -2.02%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-14 19:49
Caesars🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.34%E -2.37%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.59%E -1.78%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-14 17:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.34%E -2.37%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.55%E -2.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-14 15:55
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.34%E -2.37%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.55%E -2.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-14 17:04
GTbets🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.34%E -2.37%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.55%E -2.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-14 17:24
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.34%E -2.37%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.55%E -2.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-14 19:49
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.34%E -2.37%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.55%E -2.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-14 19:45
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.34%E -2.37%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.55%E -2.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-14 17:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.34%E -2.37%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.55%E -2.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-14 17:29
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.34%E -2.37%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.55%E -2.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-14 17:28
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.34%E -2.37%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.55%E -2.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-14 19:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.34%E -2.37%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.55%E -2.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-14 19:09
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.34%E -2.37%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.55%E -2.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-14 20:24
Betsson🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.34%E -2.37%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.50%E -2.78%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 19:44
NordicBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.34%E -2.37%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.50%E -2.78%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 19:44
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.34%E -2.37%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.50%E -2.78%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 19:44
SportsBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.39%E -2.98%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.55%E -2.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-14 19:44
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.91%E -3.28%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.16%E -1.05%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-14 20:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.91%E -3.28%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.55%E -2.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-14 17:49
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.91%E -3.28%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.55%E -2.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-14 15:54
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.91%E -3.28%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.55%E -2.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-14 19:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.91%E -3.28%K -7.39%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.50%E -2.78%K -5.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-14 17:39
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.91%E -3.28%K -7.39%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.50%E -2.78%K -5.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-14 17:40
ReBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%EV -8.00%E -4.55%K -10.53%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%EV -7.41%E -3.82%K -7.88%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-14 19:50
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.52%E -4.87%K -11.36%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.93%E -3.56%K -7.30%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-14 19:30
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.52%E -4.87%K -11.36%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.93%E -3.56%K -7.30%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-14 19:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-10-14 20:15
Novig◎1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98%1.2%2026-10-14 19:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.40%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.60%1.9%2026-10-14 20:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.40%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.60%1.9%2026-10-14 20:15
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%1.9%2026-10-14 19:30
Smarkets◎1.76I 56.82%NM 51.91%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.09%9.4%2026-10-14 19:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.92%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.04%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.04%3.1%2026-10-14 20:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.92%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.04%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.04%3.1%2026-10-14 20:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.92%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.04%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.04%3.1%2026-10-14 20:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.92%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.04%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.04%3.1%2026-10-14 20:25
1xBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.23%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.70%4.39I 22.78%NM 22.07%3.2%2026-10-14 19:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.18%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.75%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.07%4.7%2026-10-14 19:44
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.91%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.00%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.09%5.3%2026-10-14 20:24
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.91%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.00%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.09%5.3%2026-10-14 20:25
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.91%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.00%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.09%5.3%2026-10-14 20:25
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.91%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.00%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.09%5.3%2026-10-14 20:25
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.11%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.71%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.18%6.1%2026-10-14 20:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.46%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.63%6.3%2026-10-14 19:39
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%6.7%2026-10-14 18:34
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.95%7.2%2026-10-14 19:43
Codere (IT)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.38%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.75%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%8.9%2026-10-14 19:44
picklebet_au🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.60%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.61%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.79%9.3%2026-10-14 19:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.50%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.27%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.23%9.5%2026-10-14 19:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.00%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.64%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.36%16.1%2026-10-14 19:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.49%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.98%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.53%17.6%2026-10-14 19:30