The School of Odds
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Toronto Maple Leafs v Buffalo Sabres

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 23:11 UTC

Final: Toronto Maple Leafs 4–5 Buffalo Sabres

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Maple Leafs (Local)

Prediction 51.04%1.96fair odd
EV -1.49%
Edge -0.770%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.13%51.26%51.05%53.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.851.861.9357.14%53.95%53.76%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Buffalo Sabres (Visit)

Prediction 48.96%2.04fair odd
EV +0.362%
Edge +0.176%
Kelly +0.344%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.75%48.74%48.95%49.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.951.952.0554.05%51.16%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Maple Leafs (Local): 51.04%; Buffalo Sabres (Visit): 48.96%. For Buffalo Sabres (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.04. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.362%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -8.12%E -4.51%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV +0.362%E +0.176%K +0.344%G +0.001%4.3%2026-10-15 23:00
GTbets🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -8.63%E -4.82%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -0.618%E -0.304%K -0.600%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 23:10
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -2.51%E -1.31%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -2.09%E -1.04%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.4%2026-10-15 23:05
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.59%E -3.60%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.09%E -1.04%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-15 22:50
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.59%E -3.60%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.09%E -1.04%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-15 22:50
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.12%E -4.51%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.09%E -1.04%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-14 15:54
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.12%E -4.51%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.09%E -1.04%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-15 22:45
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.12%E -4.51%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.09%E -1.04%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-15 22:49
Bet Right🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -5.06%E -2.72%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -3.07%E -1.55%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 22:55
ReBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.17%EV -4.04%E -2.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.83%EV -3.55%E -1.80%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-15 22:55
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -5.57%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -3.55%E -1.80%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 22:49
Caesars🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -4.04%E -2.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -4.53%E -2.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-15 22:55
FanDuel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -4.04%E -2.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -4.53%E -2.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-15 22:55
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.55%E -2.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.53%E -2.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 22:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.55%E -2.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.53%E -2.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 22:55
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.55%E -2.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.53%E -2.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 22:59
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.55%E -2.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.53%E -2.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 22:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.55%E -2.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.53%E -2.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 22:55
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.55%E -2.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.53%E -2.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 22:50
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.55%E -2.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.53%E -2.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 22:50
BetAnything🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.55%E -2.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.53%E -2.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 23:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.57%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.53%E -2.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 22:55
TAB🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.57%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.53%E -2.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 22:50
Fliff🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.59%E -3.60%K -7.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.53%E -2.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-15 23:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -8.12%E -4.51%K -10.15%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -4.53%E -2.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-15 23:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.13%EV -1.49%E -0.770%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.87%EV -5.02%E -2.59%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-15 22:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.13%EV -1.49%E -0.770%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.87%EV -5.02%E -2.59%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-15 22:55
SportsBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -5.06%E -2.72%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.02%E -2.59%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 23:00
Betsson🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -5.06%E -2.72%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.02%E -2.59%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 23:00
NordicBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -5.06%E -2.72%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.02%E -2.59%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 23:00
Everygame🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -3.53%E -1.87%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -5.51%E -2.86%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 22:59
MyBookie.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.04%E -2.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -5.51%E -2.86%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-15 23:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -5.57%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -6.00%E -3.13%K -6.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-15 22:49
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -5.57%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -6.00%E -3.13%K -6.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-15 22:50
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -4.55%E -2.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -6.49%E -3.40%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 23:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.57%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.49%E -3.40%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-15 23:10
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.57%E -3.01%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.49%E -3.40%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-15 23:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.39%EV -10.67%E -6.10%K -14.23%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -9.43%E -5.10%K -11.09%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-15 22:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.39%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.61%0.8%2026-10-15 23:05
Polymarket◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-10-15 22:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.14%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.86%1.3%2026-10-15 23:10
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%1.9%2026-10-15 22:55
Smarkets◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%2.4%2026-10-15 23:10
Novig◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34%2.4%2026-10-15 23:10
Matchbook◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.03%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.97%2.6%2026-10-15 23:10
BetOpenly◎1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%3.5%2026-10-15 22:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.04%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.96%3.7%2026-10-15 23:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.50%2.65I 37.74%NM 37.14%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.37%1.6%2026-10-15 22:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.78%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.91%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.31%3.0%2026-10-15 22:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.78%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.91%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.31%3.0%2026-10-15 22:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.78%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.91%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.31%3.0%2026-10-15 22:55
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.00%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.03%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.96%4.7%2026-10-15 22:55
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.64%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.16%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.21%4.7%2026-10-15 22:51
Unibet (UK)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.91%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.66%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.43%4.9%2026-10-15 22:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.62%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27%5.7%2026-10-15 22:55
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.62%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27%5.7%2026-10-15 22:55
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.62%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27%5.7%2026-10-15 22:55
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.62%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27%5.7%2026-10-15 22:55
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.15%6.2%2026-10-15 22:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.82%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%6.5%2026-10-15 22:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.79%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.97%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%7.0%2026-10-15 23:10
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.90%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%8.7%2026-10-15 23:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.60%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.61%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.79%9.3%2026-10-15 23:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 39.92%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%9.4%2026-10-15 23:00
picklebet_au🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.85%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%11.3%2026-10-15 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.63%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.54%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.83%11.7%2026-10-15 23:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.89%2.42I 41.32%NM 36.83%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%12.2%2026-10-15 23:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.56%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.84%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.60%14.9%2026-10-15 22:55