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Tampa Bay Lightning v Montréal Canadiens
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)
Prediction 62.36%1.60fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -4.86%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.76%62.37%62.32%64.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.531.541.5670.92%65.23%64.94%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Montréal Canadiens (Visit)
Prediction 37.64%2.66fair odd
EV -0.248%
Edge -0.094%
Kelly -0.151%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.99%37.63%37.68%39.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.532.542.6542.55%39.57%39.37%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Lightning (Local): 62.36%; Montréal Canadiens (Visit): 37.64%. For Montréal Canadiens (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -0.248%; they did not produce positive expected value.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32%EV -2.72%E -1.74%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68%EV -2.88%E -1.12%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32%EV -2.72%E -1.74%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68%EV -2.88%E -1.12%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32%EV -2.72%E -1.74%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68%EV -2.88%E -1.12%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-21 23:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -2.72%E -1.74%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -2.72%E -1.74%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-21 23:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.76%EV -2.72%E -1.74%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.24%EV -5.14%E -2.04%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-21 22:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.72%E -1.74%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.89%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.72%E -1.74%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.89%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.10%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.90%EV -0.248%E -0.094%K -0.151%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.47%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%EV -2.88%E -1.12%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-21 23:08 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.89%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.78%E -3.17%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 23:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -9.66%E -4.02%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.97%E -2.58%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -3.97%E -2.58%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -4.39%E -1.73%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -3.97%E -2.58%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -4.39%E -1.73%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -3.97%E -2.58%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -6.27%E -2.52%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.60%EV -3.97%E -2.58%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.40%EV -7.02%E -2.84%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.60%EV -3.97%E -2.58%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.40%EV -7.02%E -2.84%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.59%E -3.00%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.13%E -0.819%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.59%E -3.00%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.13%E -0.819%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.59%E -3.00%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.59%E -3.00%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.89%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.59%E -3.00%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.89%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.59%E -3.00%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.89%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.59%E -3.00%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.78%E -3.17%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.59%E -3.00%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.78%E -3.17%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.59%E -3.00%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.78%E -3.17%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-21 23:09 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.22%E -3.43%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-21 23:01 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.53%EV -5.84%E -3.87%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.47%EV -1.00%E -0.381%K -0.614%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.53%EV -5.84%E -3.87%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.47%EV -1.00%E -0.381%K -0.614%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -5.84%E -3.87%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -1.38%E -0.526%K -0.850%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.46%E -4.31%K -12.93%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.46%E -4.31%K -12.93%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.66%E -4.02%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-21 23:08 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -7.09%E -4.76%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -0.248%E -0.094%K -0.151%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 62.50%EV -12.08%E -8.56%K -29.45%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.50%EV -11.54%E -4.91%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.62% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.38% | -0.2% | 2026-04-21 22:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.76% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.24% | 0.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41% | 0.5% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68% | 0.9% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68% | 0.9% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77% | 1.1% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.56% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.44% | 1.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68% | 2.9% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46% | 8.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.26% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.68% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.06% | 3.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.26% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.68% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.06% | 3.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.26% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.68% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.06% | 3.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.26% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.68% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.06% | 3.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.18% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.78% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.03% | 4.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.80% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.96% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24% | 4.6% | 2026-04-21 22:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.53% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.34% | 4.52I 22.12%NM 21.13% | 4.7% | 2026-04-21 22:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.22% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.61% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17% | 5.0% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.18% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16% | 5.0% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.35% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.11% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.35% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.11% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.35% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.11% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.25% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97% | 5.9% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91% | 6.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28% | 6.8% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.04% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02% | 6.9% | 2026-04-21 22:58 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.05% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16% | 7.4% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.10% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14% | 7.5% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.70% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13% | 7.6% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31% | 9.1% | 2026-04-21 23:08 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 51.07% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.77% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16% | 12.5% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |