L’École des cotesFrançais
Tampa Bay Lightning v Montréal Canadiens
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)
Prévision 62.36%1.60cote équitable
EV -2.72%
Avantage -1.74%
Kelly -4.86%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.56
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
60.76%62.37%62.32%64.01%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.411.531.541.5670.92%65.23%64.94%64.10%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Montréal Canadiens (Visiteur)
Prévision 37.64%2.66cote équitable
EV -0.248%
Avantage -0.094%
Kelly -0.151%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 2.65
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.99%37.63%37.68%39.24%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.352.532.542.6542.55%39.57%39.37%37.74%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
21 opérateurs proposent un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché (3 issues, contre le format 2 issues retenu dans l’analyse). Cette disparité impose d’interpréter les résultats avec prudence.
Cotes des opérateurs (36 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local ▼ | Visiteur | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32%EV -2.72%E -1.74%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68%EV -2.88%E -1.12%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32%EV -2.72%E -1.74%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68%EV -2.88%E -1.12%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32%EV -2.72%E -1.74%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68%EV -2.88%E -1.12%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-21 23:09 |
| BetUS | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -2.72%E -1.74%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| BetAnything | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -2.72%E -1.74%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-21 23:09 |
| ReBet | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.76%EV -2.72%E -1.74%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.24%EV -5.14%E -2.04%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-21 22:59 |
| Paddy Power | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.72%E -1.74%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.89%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.72%E -1.74%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.89%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| theScore Bet | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.10%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.90%EV -0.248%E -0.094%K -0.151%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Bovada | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.47%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%EV -2.88%E -1.12%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-21 23:08 |
| FanDuel | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.89%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| PlayUp | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.78%E -3.17%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 23:05 |
| TAB | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.35%E -2.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -9.66%E -4.02%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Bet Right | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.97%E -2.58%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| DraftKings | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -3.97%E -2.58%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -4.39%E -1.73%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| BetMGM | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -3.97%E -2.58%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -4.39%E -1.73%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| SportsBet | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -3.97%E -2.58%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -6.27%E -2.52%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| NordicBet | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.60%EV -3.97%E -2.58%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.40%EV -7.02%E -2.84%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Betsson | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.60%EV -3.97%E -2.58%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.40%EV -7.02%E -2.84%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| GTbets | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.59%E -3.00%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.13%E -0.819%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.59%E -3.00%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.13%E -0.819%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Fanatics | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.59%E -3.00%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Coral | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.59%E -3.00%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.89%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.59%E -3.00%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.89%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| William Hill | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.59%E -3.00%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.89%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Neds | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.59%E -3.00%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.78%E -3.17%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.59%E -3.00%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.78%E -3.17%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.59%E -3.00%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.78%E -3.17%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-21 23:09 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.22%E -3.43%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-21 23:01 |
| Bally Bet | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.53%EV -5.84%E -3.87%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.47%EV -1.00%E -0.381%K -0.614%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| betPARX | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.53%EV -5.84%E -3.87%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.47%EV -1.00%E -0.381%K -0.614%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Caesars | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -5.84%E -3.87%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -1.38%E -0.526%K -0.850%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.46%E -4.31%K -12.93%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Bet Victor | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.46%E -4.31%K -12.93%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.66%E -4.02%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-21 23:08 |
| Fliff | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -7.09%E -4.76%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -0.248%E -0.094%K -0.151%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 62.50%EV -12.08%E -8.56%K -29.45%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.50%EV -11.54%E -4.91%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (9)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.62% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.38% | -0.2% | 2026-04-21 22:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.76% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.24% | 0.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Novig | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41% | 0.5% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Polymarket | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68% | 0.9% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Kalshi | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68% | 0.9% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| ProphetX | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77% | 1.1% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.56% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.44% | 1.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Matchbook | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68% | 2.9% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Smarkets | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46% | 8.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
Autres opérateurs — hors analyse (21)
Ces opérateurs proposent un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché et sont exclus de l’analyse. Leurs cotes sont données uniquement à titre indicatif : leurs règles de règlement peuvent différer et créer une incertitude supplémentaire.
| Opérateur | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.26% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.68% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.06% | 3.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.26% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.68% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.06% | 3.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.26% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.68% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.06% | 3.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.26% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.68% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.06% | 3.2% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.18% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.78% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.03% | 4.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.80% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.96% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24% | 4.6% | 2026-04-21 22:59 |
| 1xBet | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.53% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.34% | 4.52I 22.12%NM 21.13% | 4.7% | 2026-04-21 22:59 |
| Unibet | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.22% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.61% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17% | 5.0% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Coolbet | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.18% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16% | 5.0% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.35% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.11% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Casumo | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.35% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.11% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Grosvenor | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.35% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.11% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.25% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97% | 5.9% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| TABtouch | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91% | 6.3% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28% | 6.8% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.04% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02% | 6.9% | 2026-04-21 22:58 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.05% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16% | 7.4% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| LeoVegas | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.10% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14% | 7.5% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Betway | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.70% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13% | 7.6% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31% | 9.1% | 2026-04-21 23:08 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.74I 57.47%NM 51.07% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.77% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16% | 12.5% | 2026-04-21 23:10 |