The School of Odds
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Tampa Bay Lightning v Columbus Blue Jackets

Kickoff: 2026-03-10 23:09 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)

Prediction 67.71%1.48fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -7.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.35%67.77%67.72%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.411.421.4377.52%70.99%70.42%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Columbus Blue Jackets (Visit)

Prediction 32.29%3.10fair odd
EV -0.552%
Edge -0.179%
Kelly -0.265%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.19%32.23%32.28%33.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.952.963.0836.36%33.87%33.84%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Lightning (Local): 67.71%; Columbus Blue Jackets (Visit): 32.29%. For Columbus Blue Jackets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.08, with an expected value of -0.552%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%EV -3.17%E -2.22%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV -3.13%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-10 22:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%EV -3.17%E -2.22%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV -3.13%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-10 22:20
BetUS🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%EV -3.17%E -2.22%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV -3.13%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-10 22:59
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.17%E -2.22%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -4.75%E -1.61%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-10 21:13
BetAnything🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.17%E -2.22%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -4.75%E -1.61%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-10 23:00
Everygame🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.17%E -2.22%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -6.36%E -2.19%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-10 22:24
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.44%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.56%EV -0.552%E -0.179%K -0.265%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-10 20:55
Paddy Power🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -3.13%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-10 18:39
Bovada🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -3.13%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-10 22:10
theScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -3.13%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-10 23:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -3.13%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-10 18:35
Caesars🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.58%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.42%EV -4.43%E -1.50%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-10 22:18
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.75%E -1.61%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-10 12:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.36%E -2.19%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-10 16:40
Fanatics🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.36%E -2.19%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-10 08:29
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.36%E -2.19%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-10 18:40
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.01%E -2.43%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 19:15
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.01%E -2.43%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 19:14
Neds🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.98%E -2.80%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-10 21:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.98%E -2.80%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-10 21:15
TAB🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -9.59%E -3.43%K -5.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-10 15:15
Bet Right🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.53%E -3.21%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -3.13%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-10 21:35
FanDuel🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.88%EV -4.53%E -3.21%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.12%EV -3.78%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-10 23:00
GTbets🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.53%E -3.21%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.75%E -1.61%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-10 22:20
MyBookie.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -4.53%E -3.21%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -5.72%E -1.96%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-10 22:59
ReBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.61%EV -5.20%E -3.72%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.39%EV -1.20%E -0.391%K -0.581%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-10 22:58
Bally Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.20%E -3.72%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -1.52%E -0.499%K -0.742%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-10 22:20
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.20%E -3.72%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -1.52%E -0.499%K -0.742%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-10 22:25
betPARX🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.20%E -3.72%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -1.52%E -0.499%K -0.742%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-10 22:20
Fliff🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.20%E -3.72%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.13%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-10 23:00
SportsBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.96%EV -5.20%E -3.72%K -13.01%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.04%EV -4.10%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 23:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.20%E -3.72%K -13.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.75%E -1.61%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-09 18:09
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.20%E -3.72%K -13.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.36%E -2.19%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-09 16:25
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.20%E -3.72%K -13.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.36%E -2.19%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-10 21:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.20%E -3.72%K -13.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.36%E -2.19%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-10 21:15
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.91%E -5.82%K -21.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.13%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-10 22:58
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.91%E -5.82%K -21.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.13%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-10 23:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.07%EV -12.65%E -9.81%K -43.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.93%EV -11.21%E -4.08%K -6.40%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-10 07:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.88%3.21I 31.15%NM 31.12%0.1%2026-03-10 22:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.8%2026-03-10 22:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.8%2026-03-10 22:10
Matchbook◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.8%2026-03-10 23:00
Polymarket◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.27%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.73%1.0%2026-03-10 23:00
Novig◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87%1.2%2026-03-10 23:00
ProphetX◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87%1.2%2026-03-10 23:00
Smarkets◎1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22%1.8%2026-03-10 20:15
Kalshi◎1.45I 68.97%NM 67.63%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.37%2.0%2026-03-10 19:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.13%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.81%3.0%2026-03-10 22:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.13%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.81%3.0%2026-03-10 22:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.13%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.81%3.0%2026-03-10 22:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.13%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.81%3.0%2026-03-10 22:20
Coolbet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.29%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.93%4.5%2026-03-10 22:23
Marathon Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.60%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.05%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.35%4.5%2026-03-10 20:34
1xBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.91%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.26%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.83%4.6%2026-03-10 22:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.83%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.89%4.7%2026-03-10 23:00
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.81%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.98%5.4%2026-03-10 22:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.81%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.98%5.4%2026-03-10 22:20
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.81%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.98%5.4%2026-03-10 22:20
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.81%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.98%5.4%2026-03-10 22:20
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.53%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.87%5.9%2026-03-10 23:00
TABtouch🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.09%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.89%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%6.3%2026-03-10 22:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.72%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%7.0%2026-03-10 21:40
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.24%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%7.3%2026-03-10 22:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.27%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%8.4%2026-03-10 23:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.71%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%8.8%2026-03-10 23:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.70%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%8.9%2026-03-10 23:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.56%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.62%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.82%9.1%2026-03-10 23:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.39%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%10.2%2026-03-10 19:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.88%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%11.1%2026-03-10 22:54