The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Tampa Bay Lightning v Boston Bruins

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 21:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)

Prediction 60.96%1.64fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -3.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.05%61.09%60.95%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.561.571.6169.93%64.01%63.69%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boston Bruins (Visit)

Prediction 39.04%2.56fair odd
EV -0.457%
Edge -0.179%
Kelly -0.295%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.50%38.91%39.05%39.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.272.462.452.5544.05%40.70%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Lightning (Local): 60.96%; Boston Bruins (Visit): 39.04%. For Boston Bruins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -0.457%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.73%EV -1.85%E -1.15%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 39.27%EV -2.80%E -1.12%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-04 20:55
BetUS🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.05%EV -1.85%E -1.15%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.95%EV -5.53%E -2.29%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 20:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%EV -2.46%E -1.54%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%EV -3.19%E -1.29%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-04 20:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%EV -2.46%E -1.54%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%EV -3.19%E -1.29%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-04 20:59
BetAnything🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.07%E -1.93%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -2.41%E -0.964%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 21:00
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.07%E -1.93%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 20:49
GTbets🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.07%E -1.93%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 21:00
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.07%E -1.93%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 20:33
ReBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -3.07%E -1.93%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -5.14%E -2.12%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-04 20:58
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -3.07%E -1.93%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -5.14%E -2.12%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-04 21:00
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.68%E -2.33%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.31%E -2.63%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 20:34
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -3.68%E -2.33%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -6.70%E -2.80%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 20:54
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -3.68%E -2.33%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -6.70%E -2.80%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 20:54
Everygame🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.89%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.11%EV -0.457%E -0.179%K -0.295%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 18:19
Bet Right🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -3.19%E -1.29%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-04 20:50
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.14%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.86%EV -3.58%E -1.45%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 20:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.14%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.86%EV -3.58%E -1.45%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 20:35
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%EV -3.97%E -1.61%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-04 20:45
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-04 21:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-04 20:40
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-04 21:00
BetMGM🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.90%E -3.14%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.41%E -0.964%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-04 20:19
Fliff🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.90%E -3.14%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-04 21:04
SportsBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -4.90%E -3.14%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -4.75%E -1.95%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 20:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -5.51%E -3.55%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -2.41%E -0.964%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-04 20:20
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -5.51%E -3.55%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -2.41%E -0.964%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-04 20:20
MyBookie.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -5.51%E -3.55%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -3.97%E -1.61%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 20:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.51%E -3.55%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-04 19:55
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.51%E -3.55%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.31%E -2.63%K -4.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-03 17:55
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.51%E -3.55%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.31%E -2.63%K -4.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 20:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.51%E -3.55%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.31%E -2.63%K -4.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 20:19
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -0.457%E -0.179%K -0.295%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-03 23:29
Bally Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -0.457%E -0.179%K -0.295%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-03 23:20
betPARX🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -0.457%E -0.179%K -0.295%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-03 23:20
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.41%E -0.964%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 19:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 21:00
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -8.55%E -5.70%K -17.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 20:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 61.35%EV -12.82%E -8.97%K -29.82%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 38.65%EV -11.39%E -5.02%K -8.97%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-04 21:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.0%2026-04-04 21:00
Polymarket◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-04-04 20:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.53%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47%1.3%2026-04-04 21:04
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.53%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47%1.3%2026-04-04 21:05
Novig◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.68%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.32%1.7%2026-04-04 21:05
Matchbook◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.49%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.51%2.1%2026-04-04 21:05
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%2.1%2026-04-04 21:04
Smarkets◎1.60I 62.50%NM 60.59%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.41%3.2%2026-04-04 21:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.96%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.67%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.38%2.7%2026-04-04 11:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.96%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.67%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.38%2.7%2026-04-04 10:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.96%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.67%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.38%2.7%2026-04-04 20:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.96%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.67%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.38%2.7%2026-04-04 10:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.18%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.78%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.03%4.3%2026-04-04 21:00
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.31%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.62%4.54I 22.03%NM 21.07%4.5%2026-04-04 20:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.20%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.75%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.05%4.8%2026-04-04 20:58
Coolbet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%5.0%2026-04-04 20:40
Unibet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.98%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.31%5.5%2026-04-04 11:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.11%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.64%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%5.8%2026-04-04 11:00
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.11%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.64%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%5.8%2026-04-04 10:59
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.11%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.64%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%5.8%2026-04-04 11:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.21%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%6.5%2026-04-04 20:15
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.25%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%6.6%2026-04-04 10:59
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.70%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%7.6%2026-04-04 20:58
LeoVegas🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.78%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%7.6%2026-04-04 10:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.39%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.27%8.2%2026-04-04 20:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.15%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.46%8.4%2026-04-04 21:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.84%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%9.0%2026-04-04 21:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.16%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.32%9.3%2026-04-04 21:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.36%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.55%9.5%2026-04-04 21:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.02%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.48%12.6%2026-04-04 10:59