La escuela de los momios

Tampa Bay Lightning v Boston Bruins

Inicio: 2026-04-04 21:10 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

38 corredores (13 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)

Predicción 60.96%1.64momio equitativo
EV -1.85%
Ventaja -1.15%
Kelly -3.03%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.05%61.09%60.95%62.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.431.561.571.6169.93%64.01%63.69%62.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Boston Bruins (Visitante)

Predicción 39.04%2.56momio equitativo
EV -0.457%
Ventaja -0.179%
Kelly -0.295%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.50%38.91%39.05%39.95%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.272.462.452.5544.05%40.70%40.82%39.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

22 corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.61I 62.11%NM 60.73%EV -1.85%E -1.15%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 39.27%EV -2.80%E -1.12%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-04 20:55
BetUS1.61I 62.11%NM 60.05%EV -1.85%E -1.15%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.95%EV -5.53%E -2.29%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 20:39
BetOnline.ag1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%EV -2.46%E -1.54%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%EV -3.19%E -1.29%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-04 20:59
LowVig.ag1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%EV -2.46%E -1.54%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%EV -3.19%E -1.29%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-04 20:59
BetAnything1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.07%E -1.93%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -2.41%E -0.964%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 21:00
theScore Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.07%E -1.93%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 20:49
GTbets1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.07%E -1.93%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 21:00
Bovada1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.07%E -1.93%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 20:33
ReBet1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -3.07%E -1.93%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -5.14%E -2.12%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-04 20:58
Caesars1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -3.07%E -1.93%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -5.14%E -2.12%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-04 21:00
PlayUp1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.68%E -2.33%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.31%E -2.63%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 20:34
Betsson1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -3.68%E -2.33%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -6.70%E -2.80%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 20:54
NordicBet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -3.68%E -2.33%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -6.70%E -2.80%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 20:54
Everygame1.57I 63.69%NM 61.89%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.11%EV -0.457%E -0.179%K -0.295%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 18:19
Bet Right1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -3.19%E -1.29%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-04 20:50
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 61.14%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.86%EV -3.58%E -1.45%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 20:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 61.14%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.86%EV -3.58%E -1.45%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 20:35
FanDuel1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%EV -3.97%E -1.61%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-04 20:45
Fanatics1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-04 21:00
PointsBet (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-04 20:40
DraftKings1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-04 21:00
BetMGM1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.90%E -3.14%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.41%E -0.964%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-04 20:19
Fliff1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.90%E -3.14%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-04 21:04
SportsBet1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -4.90%E -3.14%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -4.75%E -1.95%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 20:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -5.51%E -3.55%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -2.41%E -0.964%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-04 20:20
Coral1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -5.51%E -3.55%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -2.41%E -0.964%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-04 20:20
MyBookie.ag1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -5.51%E -3.55%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -3.97%E -1.61%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 20:49
Betr (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.51%E -3.55%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-04 19:55
TAB1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.51%E -3.55%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.31%E -2.63%K -4.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-03 17:55
Neds1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.51%E -3.55%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.31%E -2.63%K -4.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 20:19
Ladbrokes (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.51%E -3.55%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.31%E -2.63%K -4.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 20:19
BetRivers1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -0.457%E -0.179%K -0.295%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-03 23:29
Bally Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -0.457%E -0.179%K -0.295%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-03 23:20
betPARX1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -0.457%E -0.179%K -0.295%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-03 23:20
William Hill1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.41%E -0.964%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 19:54
Hard Rock Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 21:00
Bet Victor1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -8.55%E -5.70%K -17.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -4.36%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 20:50
NetBet (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 61.35%EV -12.82%E -8.97%K -29.82%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 38.65%EV -11.39%E -5.02%K -8.97%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-04 21:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.0%2026-04-04 21:00
Polymarket1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-04-04 20:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.53%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47%1.3%2026-04-04 21:04
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.53%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47%1.3%2026-04-04 21:05
Novig1.62I 61.73%NM 60.68%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.32%1.7%2026-04-04 21:05
Matchbook1.62I 61.73%NM 60.49%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.51%2.1%2026-04-04 21:05
Kalshi1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%2.1%2026-04-04 21:04
Smarkets1.60I 62.50%NM 60.59%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.41%3.2%2026-04-04 21:05

Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (22)

Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.

CorredorOpción 1Opción 2Opción 3Margen ▲Actualizado
LeoVegas (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.96%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.67%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.38%2.7%2026-04-04 11:00
Unibet (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.96%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.67%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.38%2.7%2026-04-04 10:59
ATG (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.96%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.67%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.38%2.7%2026-04-04 20:00
Svenska Spel1.91I 52.36%NM 50.96%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.67%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.38%2.7%2026-04-04 10:59
Unibet (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.18%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.78%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.03%4.3%2026-04-04 21:00
1xBet1.94I 51.55%NM 49.31%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.62%4.54I 22.03%NM 21.07%4.5%2026-04-04 20:59
Marathon Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 49.20%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.75%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.05%4.8%2026-04-04 20:58
Coolbet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%5.0%2026-04-04 20:40
Unibet1.86I 53.76%NM 50.98%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.31%5.5%2026-04-04 11:00
Unibet (NL)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.11%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.64%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%5.8%2026-04-04 11:00
Grosvenor1.85I 54.05%NM 51.11%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.64%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%5.8%2026-04-04 10:59
Casumo1.85I 54.05%NM 51.11%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.64%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%5.8%2026-04-04 11:00
Tipico (DE)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.21%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%6.5%2026-04-04 20:15
TABtouch1.83I 54.64%NM 51.25%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%6.6%2026-04-04 10:59
Betway1.87I 53.48%NM 49.70%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%7.6%2026-04-04 20:58
LeoVegas1.83I 54.64%NM 50.78%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%7.6%2026-04-04 10:59
Unibet (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.39%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.27%8.2%2026-04-04 20:59
Winamax (DE)1.84I 54.35%NM 50.15%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.46%8.4%2026-04-04 21:00
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 49.84%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%9.0%2026-04-04 21:00
Codere (IT)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.16%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.32%9.3%2026-04-04 21:00
Betclic (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.36%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.55%9.5%2026-04-04 21:04
PMU (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 51.02%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.48%12.6%2026-04-04 10:59