The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Seattle Kraken v Calgary Flames

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 23:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seattle Kraken (Local)

Prediction 53.85%1.86fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -3.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.88%53.78%53.83%54.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.771.771.8161.35%56.43%56.50%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Calgary Flames (Visit)

Prediction 46.15%2.17fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -2.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%46.22%46.17%47.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.062.052.1152.63%48.53%48.66%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Seattle Kraken (Local): 53.85%; Calgary Flames (Visit): 46.15%. For Seattle Kraken (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.81, with an expected value of -2.54%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.83%EV -2.54%E -1.40%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.17%EV -2.62%E -1.24%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-11 23:06
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.08%E -1.71%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.39%E -2.63%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 23:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.08%E -1.71%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.39%E -2.63%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 23:10
Caesars🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.08%E -1.71%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.39%E -2.63%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 23:10
BetAnything🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.08%E -1.71%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.39%E -2.63%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 23:08
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.08%E -1.71%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.39%E -2.63%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 23:07
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.08%E -1.71%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.39%E -2.63%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 23:07
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.08%E -1.71%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.39%E -2.63%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 23:10
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -3.08%E -1.71%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -5.85%E -2.87%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-11 23:10
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.08%E -1.71%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.77%E -3.35%K -6.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 23:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.10%EV -3.61%E -2.02%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.90%EV -2.62%E -1.24%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-11 23:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.10%EV -3.61%E -2.02%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.90%EV -2.62%E -1.24%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-11 23:10
ReBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -3.61%E -2.02%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -4.00%E -1.92%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-11 22:59
betPARX🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -3.61%E -2.02%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -4.46%E -2.16%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-11 23:10
Bally Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -3.61%E -2.02%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -4.46%E -2.16%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-11 23:10
Bet Right🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -4.15%E -2.33%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -4.00%E -1.92%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 23:10
Bovada🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.77%EV -4.15%E -2.33%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.23%EV -4.46%E -2.16%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-11 23:09
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -4.15%E -2.33%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -4.92%E -2.39%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-11 22:57
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.69%E -2.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.08%E -1.47%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-11 23:09
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.69%E -2.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.08%E -1.47%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-11 23:09
Everygame🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.69%E -2.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.08%E -1.47%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-11 23:06
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.69%E -2.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.08%E -1.47%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-11 23:09
MyBookie.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -4.69%E -2.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.92%E -2.39%K -4.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 23:00
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.69%E -2.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.39%E -2.63%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 23:05
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.69%E -2.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.39%E -2.63%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 23:07
Neds🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -4.69%E -2.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -6.77%E -3.35%K -6.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 23:07
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -4.69%E -2.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -6.77%E -3.35%K -6.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 23:07
GTbets🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.23%E -2.97%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -4.46%E -2.16%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 23:10
NordicBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -5.23%E -2.97%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -4.92%E -2.39%K -4.65%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 23:10
Betsson🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -5.23%E -2.97%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -4.92%E -2.39%K -4.65%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 23:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.77%E -3.30%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.39%E -2.63%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 23:09
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.77%E -3.30%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.39%E -2.63%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 23:01
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.77%E -3.30%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.39%E -2.63%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 23:10
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.31%E -3.62%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.08%E -1.47%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 23:10
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.31%E -3.62%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.39%E -2.63%K -5.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 23:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.31%E -3.62%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.39%E -2.63%K -5.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 23:09
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.85%E -3.96%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.08%E -1.47%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 23:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 53.82%EV -12.23%E -7.50%K -19.41%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.18%EV -12.31%E -6.48%K -13.68%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-11 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-04-11 23:09
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08%1.9%2026-04-11 23:10
Novig◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08%1.9%2026-04-11 23:10
ProphetX◎1.83I 54.64%NM 52.71%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.29%3.7%2026-04-11 23:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%4.3%2026-04-11 23:10
Smarkets◎1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%5.8%2026-04-11 23:10
Matchbook◎1.71I 58.48%NM 53.15%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.85%10.0%2026-04-11 23:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 37.27%1.01I 99.01%NM 62.73%57.8%2026-04-11 23:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.17%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.27%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-04-11 23:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.17%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.27%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-04-11 23:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.17%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.27%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-04-11 23:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.17%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.27%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-04-11 23:10
Coolbet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.32%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.91%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.77%4.6%2026-04-11 23:06
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.49%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.28%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.23%4.6%2026-04-11 22:59
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.43%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.36%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%4.7%2026-04-11 22:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.00%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.31%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.70%4.9%2026-04-11 23:09
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.21%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.18%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%5.3%2026-04-11 23:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.21%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.18%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%5.3%2026-04-11 23:09
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.21%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.18%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%5.3%2026-04-11 23:10
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.21%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.18%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%5.3%2026-04-11 23:09
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.15%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.47%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%6.4%2026-04-11 23:09
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.55%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%6.8%2026-04-11 23:10
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.25%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%7.6%2026-04-11 23:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.13%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.98%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.89%7.9%2026-04-11 23:08
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.88%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%8.2%2026-04-11 22:58
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.88%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%8.2%2026-04-11 23:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%8.9%2026-04-11 23:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.61%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.18%9.2%2026-04-11 23:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.53%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.17%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%9.4%2026-04-11 23:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.46%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.97%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.57%12.2%2026-04-11 23:10