The School of Odds
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Seattle Kraken v Calgary Flames

Kickoff: 2026-10-05 00:17 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seattle Kraken (Local)

Prediction 59.44%1.68fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -2.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.65%59.43%59.39%62.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.601.611.6565.36%62.31%62.11%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Calgary Flames (Visit)

Prediction 40.56%2.47fair odd
EV +3.44%
Edge +1.35%
Kelly +2.22%
Growth +0.076%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.96%40.57%40.61%41.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.362.352.5546.08%42.41%42.55%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Seattle Kraken (Local): 59.44%; Calgary Flames (Visit): 40.56%. For Calgary Flames (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.47. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.44%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -7.28%E -4.67%K -13.00%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV +3.44%E +1.35%K +2.22%G +0.076%3.3%2026-10-05 00:04
BetAnything🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -0.620%E -0.253%K -0.427%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-04 21:35
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.51%EV -2.52%E -1.54%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.49%EV -2.24%E -0.930%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.5%2026-10-04 23:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.80%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.20%EV -2.24%E -0.930%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-05 00:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.80%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.20%EV -2.24%E -0.930%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-05 00:05
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.65%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-05 00:05
Paddy Power🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.65%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-04 23:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.65%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-04 23:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.65%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-05 00:05
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.50%E -3.46%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.65%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-05 00:05
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.70%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -3.86%E -1.63%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-05 00:05
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.27%E -1.81%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-04 23:35
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.55%EV -4.27%E -1.81%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-04 23:40
Everygame🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -1.93%E -1.17%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-04 23:58
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.12%E -1.91%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-04 22:15
Caesars🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.12%E -1.91%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-04 23:05
GTbets🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-04 22:55
Bally Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-04 22:15
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-04 22:15
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-05 00:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-04 22:20
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-04 23:40
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-05 00:05
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.50%E -3.46%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-05 00:05
Neds🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.09%E -3.85%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-05 00:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.09%E -3.85%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-05 00:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.68%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-05 00:05
ReBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.68%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.68%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-05 00:05
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -1.93%E -1.17%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -5.08%E -2.17%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-04 21:39
Bet Right🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -3.12%E -1.91%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -5.08%E -2.17%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-04 22:20
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.49%E -2.36%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-05 00:05
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.49%E -2.36%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-05 00:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -5.89%E -2.54%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-04 23:54
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-04 23:55
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-05 00:04
betano_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-05 00:03
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.87%E -5.08%K -14.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-05 00:04
NetBet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.65%EV -9.06%E -5.92%K -17.10%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.35%EV -11.98%E -5.52%K -10.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-04 23:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.86%2.49I 40.16%NM 40.14%0.0%2026-10-04 23:59
Novig◎1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%0.6%2026-10-05 00:05
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-10-04 23:45
Polymarket◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-10-05 00:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49%1.2%2026-10-05 00:05
ProphetX◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.29%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.71%2.4%2026-10-05 00:05
Matchbook◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.10%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.90%2.7%2026-10-05 00:05
Smarkets◎1.61I 62.11%NM 60.05%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.95%3.4%2026-10-05 00:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%6.1%2026-10-05 00:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 47.30%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.82%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88%1.6%2026-10-05 00:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.32%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.85%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83%3.1%2026-10-05 00:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.32%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.85%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83%3.1%2026-10-05 00:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.32%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.85%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83%3.1%2026-10-05 00:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.19%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.77%4.6%2026-10-04 21:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.46%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.84%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.70%4.7%2026-10-05 00:05
Coolbet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.00%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.29%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%4.8%2026-10-05 00:00
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.21%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.66%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.13%4.9%2026-10-04 23:54
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%5.6%2026-10-05 00:05
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%5.6%2026-10-05 00:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%5.6%2026-10-05 00:05
Casumo🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%5.6%2026-10-05 00:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%6.6%2026-10-04 23:55
TABtouch🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.49%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%6.9%2026-10-04 22:15
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.87%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.96%7.1%2026-10-05 00:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.43%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%8.7%2026-10-05 00:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.04%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%9.1%2026-10-04 23:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.94%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.76%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%12.1%2026-10-05 00:01
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.42%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%12.2%2026-10-04 22:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.27%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.30%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.43%13.8%2026-10-05 00:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 45.49%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.24%16.3%2026-10-04 23:55