The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Seattle Kraken v Calgary Flames

2026-10-05 00:10 UTC — NHL

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seattle Kraken (Local)

Prediction 54.90%1.82fair odd
EV -2.83%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -3.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.95%54.90%55.15%55.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.751.751.7757.47%57.14%57.14%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Calgary Flames (Visit)

Prediction 45.10%2.22fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -2.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.73%45.10%44.85%46.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.102.102.1548.78%47.65%47.62%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Seattle Kraken (Local): 54.90%; Calgary Flames (Visit): 45.10%. For Seattle Kraken (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.82. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.77, with an expected value of -2.83%; they do not produce positive expected value.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.83%E -1.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.28%E -2.52%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-07 00:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.93%E -2.25%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.28%E -2.52%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-07 00:10
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.93%E -2.25%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.28%E -2.52%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-07 00:10
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.93%E -2.25%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.54%E -3.68%K -7.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 00:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.93%E -2.25%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.54%E -3.68%K -7.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 00:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.48%E -2.58%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.03%E -1.41%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-18 09:24
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -4.48%E -2.58%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -3.48%E -1.63%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-16 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎1.61I 62.11%NM 53.06%1.82I 54.95%NM 46.94%17.1%2026-09-14 18:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.49%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.23%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.29%3.2%2026-08-31 13:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.24%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.30%4.7%2026-08-31 13:27