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Pittsburgh Penguins v Washington Capitals
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pittsburgh Penguins (Local)
Prediction 41.74%2.40fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.637%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.81%41.75%41.77%43.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.282.292.3645.45%43.84%43.67%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Washington Capitals (Visit)
Prediction 58.26%1.72fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -4.03%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.85%58.25%58.23%59.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.651.651.6761.73%60.61%60.61%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Penguins (Local): 41.74%; Washington Capitals (Visit): 58.26%. For Pittsburgh Penguins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.36, with an expected value of -1.50%; they did not produce positive expected value.
18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.15%EV -1.50%E -0.637%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.85%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.15%EV -1.50%E -0.637%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.85%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.54%EV -1.92%E -0.817%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.46%EV -2.70%E -1.62%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-04-11 19:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -1.92%E -0.817%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-11 19:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -1.92%E -0.817%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.61%E -3.46%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -2.34%E -0.999%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-11 19:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -2.75%E -1.18%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-11 19:17 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.01%E -1.74%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.70%E -1.62%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-11 19:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.01%E -1.74%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.70%E -1.62%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-11 19:19 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.01%E -1.74%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.70%E -1.62%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-11 19:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.01%E -1.74%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.01%E -1.74%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.01%E -1.74%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.01%E -1.74%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -4.01%E -1.74%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -4.45%E -2.71%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.01%E -1.74%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.61%E -3.46%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 19:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -4.42%E -1.93%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -5.03%E -3.09%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-11 19:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -4.84%E -2.12%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -3.28%E -1.98%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -4.84%E -2.12%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -3.28%E -1.98%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -5.68%E -2.51%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -2.70%E -1.62%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-11 19:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -5.68%E -2.51%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -4.45%E -2.71%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -5.68%E -2.51%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -4.45%E -2.71%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 19:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 19:08 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 19:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 19:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.61%E -3.46%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-11 19:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.70%E -1.62%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-11 19:16 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-11 19:08 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-11 19:07 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-11 19:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket◎ | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53% | 1.1% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77% | 1.9% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77% | 1.9% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.09% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.91% | 2.3% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Novig◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26% | 2.3% | 2026-04-11 19:19 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06% | 2.6% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.50% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.50% | 3.0% | 2026-04-11 19:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00% | 3.3% | 2026-04-11 19:19 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.28% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.17% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.55% | 3.1% | 2026-04-11 19:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.28% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.17% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.55% | 3.1% | 2026-04-11 19:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.07% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.53% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.40% | 3.8% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.46% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.72% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.82% | 4.4% | 2026-04-11 19:17 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.38% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.92% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71% | 4.7% | 2026-04-11 19:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.20% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.41% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.39% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.20% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.41% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.39% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.20% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.41% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.39% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.68% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.55% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77% | 6.8% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71% | 7.3% | 2026-04-11 19:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.54% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08% | 7.8% | 2026-04-11 19:11 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.29% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.16% | 9.3% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.29% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.16% | 9.3% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.29% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.16% | 9.3% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.90% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64% | 10.0% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.45% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41% | 11.5% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.27% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 45.49% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.24% | 16.3% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 32.63% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 45.61% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 21.75% | 17.9% | 2026-04-11 19:20 |