The School of Odds
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Pittsburgh Penguins v Montréal Canadiens

2026-10-03 23:10 UTC — NHL

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pittsburgh Penguins (Local)

Prediction 50.00%2.00fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.95%49.74%50.00%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.911.911.9553.19%52.48%52.36%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Montréal Canadiens (Visit)

Prediction 50.00%2.00fair odd
EV -4.50%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -4.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%50.26%50.00%51.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.901.901.9153.48%52.72%52.63%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Pittsburgh Penguins (Local): 50.00%; Montréal Canadiens (Visit): 50.00%. For Pittsburgh Penguins (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.00. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.95, with an expected value of -2.50%; they do not produce positive expected value.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.50%E -1.28%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.50%E -3.48%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 16:33
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-16 17:45
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-05 23:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-05 23:05
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-05 23:04
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.00%E -2.63%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.00%E -2.63%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 14:00
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.00%E -2.63%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.00%E -2.63%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 13:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.00%E -3.19%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.00%E -3.19%K -6.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-05 23:05
Neds🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.00%E -3.19%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.00%E -3.19%K -6.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-05 23:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎1.72I 58.14%NM 51.41%1.82I 54.95%NM 48.59%13.1%2026-09-14 19:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.86%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.86%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.28%2.9%2026-09-05 23:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.88%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.88%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%4.6%2026-09-05 23:05