The School of Odds
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Pittsburgh Penguins v Montréal Canadiens

2026-10-03 23:10 UTC — NHL

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pittsburgh Penguins (Local)

Prediction 49.65%2.01fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -3.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.95%49.65%50.00%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.901.921.901.9552.63%52.22%52.49%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Montréal Canadiens (Visit)

Prediction 50.35%1.99fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -4.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%50.35%50.00%51.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.901.901.9153.48%52.77%52.63%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Pittsburgh Penguins (Local): 49.65%; Montréal Canadiens (Visit): 50.35%. For Pittsburgh Penguins (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.01. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.95, with an expected value of -3.18%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.18%E -1.63%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.85%E -3.13%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 16:33
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.17%E -2.71%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.83%E -2.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-16 17:45
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.66%E -2.98%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.34%E -2.28%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 14:00
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.66%E -2.98%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.34%E -2.28%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 13:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.