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Pittsburgh Penguins v Montréal Canadiens
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pittsburgh Penguins (Local)
Prediction 49.69%2.01fair odd
EV -0.611%
Edge -0.306%
Kelly -0.611%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.05%49.60%49.68%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.931.932.0054.64%51.90%51.81%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Montréal Canadiens (Visit)
Prediction 50.31%1.99fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -2.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.94
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%50.40%50.32%51.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.881.881.9456.50%53.11%53.19%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Penguins (Local): 49.69%; Montréal Canadiens (Visit): 50.31%. For Pittsburgh Penguins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.01. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.00, with an expected value of -0.611%; they did not produce positive expected value.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| betPARX🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -0.611%E -0.306%K -0.611%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -6.93%E -3.75%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -0.611%E -0.306%K -0.611%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -6.93%E -3.75%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.74%EV -2.60%E -1.33%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.26%EV -2.41%E -1.24%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.96%EV -2.60%E -1.33%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04%EV -5.43%E -2.89%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.10%E -1.59%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.93%E -3.17%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.10%E -1.59%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.93%E -3.17%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 22:57 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.10%E -1.59%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.93%E -3.17%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.10%E -1.59%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.93%E -3.17%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.10%E -1.59%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.93%E -3.17%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.10%E -1.59%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.93%E -3.17%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 21:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.10%E -1.59%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.93%E -3.17%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.10%E -1.59%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.93%E -3.17%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.10%E -1.59%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.93%E -3.75%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 16:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.10%E -1.59%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.93%E -3.75%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -4.09%E -2.12%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -2.91%E -1.51%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -4.09%E -2.12%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -2.91%E -1.51%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.61%EV -4.09%E -2.12%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.39%EV -4.42%E -2.33%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -4.09%E -2.12%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -4.92%E -2.60%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 22:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.09%E -2.12%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -5.43%E -2.89%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.09%E -2.12%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -5.43%E -2.89%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 22:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.59%E -2.39%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.43%E -2.89%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.59%E -2.39%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.43%E -2.89%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.34%EV -4.59%E -2.39%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.66%EV -5.93%E -3.17%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-03 23:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.08%E -2.66%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.92%E -2.05%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.08%E -2.66%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.92%E -2.05%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.08%E -2.66%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.92%E -2.05%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.08%E -2.66%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.92%E -2.05%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 22:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.08%E -2.66%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.92%E -2.05%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.08%E -2.66%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.92%E -2.05%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -5.08%E -2.66%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -4.92%E -2.60%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.58%E -2.94%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.42%E -2.33%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 22:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.58%E -2.94%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.42%E -2.33%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 22:54 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.58%E -2.94%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.42%E -2.33%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 22:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.57%E -3.50%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.43%E -2.89%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.57%E -3.50%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.43%E -2.89%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.07%E -3.78%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.93%E -3.17%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.17%EV -9.06%E -4.95%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.83%EV -10.96%E -6.19%K -14.23%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-03 22:48 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88% | 0.8% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88% | 0.8% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| Novig◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.99% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.01% | 1.1% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.99% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.01% | 1.1% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.99% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.01% | 1.1% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52% | 1.1% | 2026-10-03 19:01 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.23% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.77% | 2.1% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.98% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02% | 2.1% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.43% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 40.15% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42% | 1.7% | 2026-10-03 22:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.54% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.62% | 3.3% | 2026-10-03 22:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.54% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.62% | 3.3% | 2026-10-03 22:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.54% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.62% | 3.3% | 2026-10-03 22:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.72% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.04% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24% | 4.6% | 2026-10-03 22:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.23% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.01% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.76% | 4.6% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.52% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.47% | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.01% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 22:57 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.31% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.83% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.70% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 22:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.83% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.70% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 22:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.83% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.70% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 22:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.83% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.70% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 22:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.28% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.14% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82% | 6.6% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08% | 8.3% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.15% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89% | 9.2% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.93% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.73% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34% | 9.9% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.45% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.05% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.50% | 12.0% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.99% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.82% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.19% | 12.0% | 2026-10-03 23:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.06% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.90% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.04% | 14.2% | 2026-10-03 22:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 37.77% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 38.63% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.61% | 17.7% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |