The School of Odds
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Pittsburgh Penguins v Florida Panthers

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 19:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pittsburgh Penguins (Local)

Prediction 67.16%1.49fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.867%
Kelly -2.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.06%67.22%67.13%68.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.421.431.4776.92%70.27%69.93%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Florida Panthers (Visit)

Prediction 32.84%3.05fair odd
EV +0.160%
Edge +0.053%
Kelly +0.078%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.46%32.78%32.87%34.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.892.903.0537.04%34.55%34.48%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Penguins (Local): 67.16%; Florida Panthers (Visit): 32.84%. For Florida Panthers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.045. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.050, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.160%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.98%E -4.27%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +0.160%E +0.053%K +0.078%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-05 12:05
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.98%E -4.27%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +0.160%E +0.053%K +0.078%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-05 15:00
Bally Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.98%E -4.27%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +0.160%E +0.053%K +0.078%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-05 14:45
betPARX🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.98%E -4.27%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +0.160%E +0.053%K +0.078%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-05 14:45
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.96%E -2.77%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -3.12%E -1.06%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-05 19:04
BetUS🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.96%E -2.77%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -3.12%E -1.06%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-05 18:34
Fliff🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -5.30%E -3.76%K -12.94%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -3.12%E -1.06%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-05 18:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.98%E -4.27%K -14.94%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.12%E -1.06%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-05 00:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.97%EV -2.62%E -1.80%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.03%EV -3.45%E -1.17%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-05 19:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.97%EV -2.62%E -1.80%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.03%EV -3.45%E -1.17%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-05 19:04
Caesars🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -3.96%E -2.77%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV -4.11%E -1.41%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-05 19:04
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 66.36%EV -1.27%E -0.867%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.64%EV -4.77%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-05 19:05
ReBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -3.29%E -2.28%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -4.77%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-05 18:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -3.29%E -2.28%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -4.77%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-05 16:14
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -3.29%E -2.28%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -4.77%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-05 16:15
GTbets🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.96%E -2.77%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.77%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-05 18:45
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.96%E -2.77%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.77%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-05 16:15
Bet Right🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.96%E -2.77%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.77%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-05 18:09
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.96%E -2.77%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.77%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-05 18:53
BetAnything🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.96%E -2.77%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.77%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-05 15:54
Everygame🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.96%E -2.77%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.77%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-05 12:18
Fanatics🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.63%E -3.26%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.77%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-05 17:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.63%E -3.26%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.77%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-05 15:20
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.98%E -4.27%K -14.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.77%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-05 07:19
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.98%E -4.27%K -14.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.77%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-05 18:45
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -3.29%E -2.28%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -5.42%E -1.88%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-05 15:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -3.29%E -2.28%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -5.42%E -1.88%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-05 18:34
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -3.96%E -2.77%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -5.42%E -1.88%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-05 15:14
SportsBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -3.96%E -2.77%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -6.08%E -2.13%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-05 18:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.96%E -2.77%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.41%E -2.25%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 18:48
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -7.32%E -5.30%K -19.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -6.41%E -2.25%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-05 19:04
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -2.62%E -1.80%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -8.05%E -2.87%K -4.47%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-05 18:05
Neds🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.63%E -3.26%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -8.05%E -2.87%K -4.47%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 16:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.63%E -3.26%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -8.05%E -2.87%K -4.47%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 16:15
Betsson🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -3.29%E -2.28%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -8.71%E -3.13%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-05 18:05
NordicBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -3.29%E -2.28%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -8.71%E -3.13%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-05 18:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.66%EV -12.69%E -9.76%K -42.30%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.34%EV -10.68%E -3.93%K -6.21%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-05 18:55
TAB🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -2.62%E -1.80%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -11.33%E -4.20%K -6.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 18:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.81%3.02I 33.11%NM 33.19%-0.2%2026-04-05 18:54
Polymarket◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67%1.0%2026-04-05 18:50
Kalshi◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67%1.0%2026-04-05 18:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%1.4%2026-04-05 19:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%1.4%2026-04-05 19:05
Novig◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.34%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.66%1.7%2026-04-05 19:05
ProphetX◎1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22%1.8%2026-04-05 19:00
Smarkets◎1.45I 68.97%NM 67.42%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%2.3%2026-04-05 19:05
Matchbook◎1.45I 68.97%NM 67.42%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%2.3%2026-04-05 19:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.17%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.24%2.9%2026-04-05 14:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.17%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.24%2.9%2026-04-05 14:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.17%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.24%2.9%2026-04-05 14:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.17%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.24%2.9%2026-04-05 14:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.37%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.53%3.8%2026-04-05 19:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.75%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.33%4.7%2026-04-05 18:55
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.13%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.56%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.30%4.8%2026-04-05 18:59
1xBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.46%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.35%4.72I 21.19%NM 20.19%4.9%2026-04-05 18:55
Casumo🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.94%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.84%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%5.2%2026-04-05 14:45
Grosvenor🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.94%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.84%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%5.2%2026-04-05 14:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.94%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.84%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%5.2%2026-04-05 14:45
Unibet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.94%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.84%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%5.2%2026-04-05 14:45
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%6.5%2026-04-05 19:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.16%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.39%6.6%2026-04-05 18:24
TABtouch🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%6.7%2026-04-05 15:00
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%7.5%2026-04-05 14:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.85%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.08%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%7.9%2026-04-05 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.76%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%8.8%2026-04-05 19:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%8.9%2026-04-05 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.48%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.04%9.2%2026-04-05 19:01
PMU (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.11%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.68%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.21%12.5%2026-04-05 14:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.25%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.07%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.67%14.0%2026-04-05 19:05