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Pittsburgh Penguins v Dallas Stars
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pittsburgh Penguins (Local)
Prediction 46.87%2.13fair odd
EV -1.58%
Edge -0.751%
Kelly -1.43%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.60%46.92%46.81%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.032.042.1051.28%49.21%49.02%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Dallas Stars (Visit)
Prediction 53.13%1.88fair odd
EV -2.77%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -3.33%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.22%53.08%53.19%54.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.801.801.8357.14%55.51%55.56%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Penguins (Local): 46.87%; Dallas Stars (Visit): 53.13%. For Pittsburgh Penguins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -1.58%; they did not produce positive expected value.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| betPARX🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.58%E -0.751%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.96%E -3.36%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-27 19:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.58%E -0.751%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.96%E -3.36%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-27 19:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -1.58%E -0.751%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -6.49%E -3.69%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-27 19:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.04%EV -3.45%E -1.68%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.96%EV -2.77%E -1.51%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-27 22:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.04%EV -3.45%E -1.68%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.96%EV -2.77%E -1.51%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-27 23:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.04%EV -3.45%E -1.68%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.96%EV -2.77%E -1.51%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-27 23:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.89%EV -3.92%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.11%EV -3.83%E -2.12%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-28 02:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.92%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.36%E -2.42%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-27 15:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.92%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.36%E -2.42%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-28 02:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.92%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.36%E -2.42%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-28 02:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.92%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.36%E -2.42%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-27 16:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.92%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.36%E -2.42%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-27 23:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.92%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.36%E -2.42%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-27 23:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.92%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.36%E -2.42%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-27 20:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.92%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.36%E -2.42%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-27 22:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -3.92%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -4.89%E -2.73%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-28 02:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.92%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.96%E -3.36%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-27 13:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -4.39%E -2.15%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -4.89%E -2.73%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-28 02:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -4.39%E -2.15%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -4.89%E -2.73%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-28 02:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.39%E -2.15%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.42%E -3.05%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-28 02:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -4.86%E -2.39%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -4.89%E -2.73%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-28 02:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -4.86%E -2.39%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -4.89%E -2.73%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-28 02:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.33%E -2.64%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.30%E -1.81%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-27 22:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.33%E -2.64%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.36%E -2.42%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-28 02:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.77%E -1.51%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-27 15:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.77%E -1.51%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-28 01:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.77%E -1.51%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-28 01:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.77%E -1.51%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-28 01:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.77%E -1.51%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-27 23:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.77%E -1.51%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-28 02:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.36%E -2.42%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-27 19:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.36%E -2.42%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-27 15:44 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.36%E -2.42%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-27 20:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -7.20%E -3.64%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.36%E -2.42%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-28 01:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -7.20%E -3.64%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.36%E -2.42%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-28 01:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.61%E -4.41%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.02%E -4.01%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-28 02:22 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52% | 1.0% | 2026-03-27 22:00 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52% | 1.0% | 2026-03-27 18:50 |
| Novig◎ | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92% | 1.9% | 2026-03-28 02:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.70% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.30% | 2.0% | 2026-03-27 21:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.70% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.30% | 2.0% | 2026-03-28 02:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44% | 2.3% | 2026-03-28 02:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44% | 2.3% | 2026-03-28 02:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.27% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.73% | 9.6% | 2026-03-28 02:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.94% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.29% | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.78% | 3.1% | 2026-03-28 03:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.08% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.40% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.53% | 3.7% | 2026-03-28 02:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.44% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.86% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.69% | 3.7% | 2026-03-27 19:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.44% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.86% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.69% | 3.7% | 2026-03-27 19:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.44% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.86% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.69% | 3.7% | 2026-03-27 19:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.44% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.86% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.69% | 3.7% | 2026-03-27 19:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.91% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.35% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74% | 4.7% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.63% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67% | 5.0% | 2026-03-27 19:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.63% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67% | 5.0% | 2026-03-27 19:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.63% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67% | 5.0% | 2026-03-27 19:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.63% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67% | 5.0% | 2026-03-27 19:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.11% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.29% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61% | 5.3% | 2026-03-27 22:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.89% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15% | 6.2% | 2026-03-28 01:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.65% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.53% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82% | 6.9% | 2026-03-27 19:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.47% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33% | 7.2% | 2026-03-27 23:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.75% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73% | 7.3% | 2026-03-27 19:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95% | 8.9% | 2026-03-28 02:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.02% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.15% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83% | 9.0% | 2026-03-28 03:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.20% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.04% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.77% | 9.3% | 2026-03-28 02:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.89% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.24% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87% | 10.2% | 2026-03-28 02:20 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.89% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.24% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87% | 10.2% | 2026-03-28 02:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 35.36% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 41.39% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.25% | 17.8% | 2026-03-28 02:20 |