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Pittsburgh Penguins v Buffalo Sabres
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pittsburgh Penguins (Local)
Prediction 49.14%2.04fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -0.865%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.78%49.15%49.10%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.941.952.0056.18%51.59%51.28%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Buffalo Sabres (Visit)
Prediction 50.86%1.97fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%50.85%50.90%52.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.871.871.9257.80%53.55%53.48%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Penguins (Local): 49.14%; Buffalo Sabres (Visit): 50.86%. For Pittsburgh Penguins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.00, with an expected value of -1.73%; they did not produce positive expected value.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -1.73%E -0.865%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.92%E -3.78%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-05 23:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.10%EV -2.22%E -1.12%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.90%EV -2.34%E -1.22%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-03-06 00:01 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.10%EV -3.20%E -1.63%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.90%EV -3.36%E -1.77%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-05 23:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.10%EV -3.20%E -1.63%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.90%EV -3.36%E -1.77%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-05 23:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -3.20%E -1.63%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -5.90%E -3.19%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-05 23:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.96%EV -3.69%E -1.89%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04%EV -4.37%E -2.33%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-05 20:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -4.19%E -2.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -4.37%E -2.33%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-05 20:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -4.19%E -2.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -4.37%E -2.33%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-05 20:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.19%E -2.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.88%E -2.61%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-05 17:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.19%E -2.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.88%E -2.61%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-04 18:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.19%E -2.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.88%E -2.61%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-04 17:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.19%E -2.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.88%E -2.61%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-05 17:24 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.19%E -2.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.88%E -2.61%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-04 18:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.19%E -2.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.88%E -2.61%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-04 19:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.19%E -2.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.88%E -2.61%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-05 12:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.19%E -2.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.90%E -3.19%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 04:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.19%E -2.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.90%E -3.19%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 19:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.19%E -2.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.90%E -3.19%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 19:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.19%E -2.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.90%E -3.19%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 04:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.19%E -2.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.92%E -3.78%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-05 23:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -4.19%E -2.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -8.44%E -4.69%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -4.68%E -2.41%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -4.37%E -2.33%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.68%E -2.41%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.88%E -2.61%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:40 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.68%E -2.41%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.88%E -2.61%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -5.17%E -2.68%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.37%E -2.33%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 20:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -5.17%E -2.68%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -4.88%E -2.61%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -5.17%E -2.68%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -4.88%E -2.61%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 21:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -5.17%E -2.68%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -4.88%E -2.61%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 21:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -5.66%E -2.95%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -5.90%E -3.19%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-04 19:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -5.66%E -2.95%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -5.90%E -3.19%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-04 19:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.85%E -1.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-05 13:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.85%E -1.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.85%E -1.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.85%E -1.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-05 14:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.85%E -1.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-05 17:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -6.64%E -3.50%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -5.90%E -3.19%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-05 23:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.29%EV -12.54%E -7.04%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.71%EV -12.00%E -6.94%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.62% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38% | 0.8% | 2026-03-05 23:59 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.99% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.01% | 1.1% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52% | 1.1% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.86% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.14% | 1.3% | 2026-03-05 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.86% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.14% | 1.3% | 2026-03-05 22:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.86% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.14% | 1.3% | 2026-03-06 00:01 |
| Novig◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.73% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.27% | 1.6% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.11% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.89% | 1.8% | 2026-03-05 23:45 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.07% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.62% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.31% | 3.0% | 2026-03-05 20:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.07% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.62% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.31% | 3.0% | 2026-03-05 20:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.07% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.62% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.31% | 3.0% | 2026-03-05 20:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.07% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.62% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.31% | 3.0% | 2026-03-05 21:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.11% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.11% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.78% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 00:01 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.25% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.51% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24% | 4.6% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.21% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.31% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.48% | 4.7% | 2026-03-05 23:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.82% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.02% | 4.31I 23.20%NM 22.16% | 4.7% | 2026-03-05 23:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.02% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.61% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 20:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.02% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.61% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 20:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.02% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.61% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 20:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.02% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.61% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 20:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.99% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 20:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.19% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.99% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82% | 6.9% | 2026-03-05 20:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.88% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.63% | 7.8% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.39% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.57% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04% | 8.0% | 2026-03-06 00:01 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 37.89% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 39.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92% | 9.1% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.15% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89% | 9.2% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.78% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.94% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.28% | 9.3% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.24% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.85% | 10.8% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.87% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.19% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 22.94% | 10.9% | 2026-03-05 23:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.14% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.57% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.29% | 14.6% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |