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Philadelphia Flyers v Pittsburgh Penguins
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Philadelphia Flyers (Local)
Prediction 52.06%1.92fair odd
EV -0.566%
Edge -0.297%
Kelly -0.622%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.93%52.14%52.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.841.831.9158.48%54.37%54.64%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit)
Prediction 47.94%2.09fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -3.10%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.62%48.07%47.86%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.971.982.0254.95%50.64%50.51%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Philadelphia Flyers (Local): 52.06%; Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit): 47.94%. For Philadelphia Flyers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.92. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.91, with an expected value of -0.566%; they did not produce positive expected value.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -0.566%E -0.297%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -8.43%E -4.42%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-24 00:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.79%EV -2.13%E -1.13%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.21%EV -3.16%E -1.56%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-04-23 08:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -2.13%E -1.13%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -6.52%E -3.34%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-23 08:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.65%E -1.42%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.52%E -3.34%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 03:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.65%E -1.42%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.52%E -3.34%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 03:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.65%E -1.42%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.52%E -3.34%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 12:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 52.06%EV -3.17%E -1.70%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.94%EV -3.16%E -1.56%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-23 02:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 52.06%EV -3.17%E -1.70%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.94%EV -3.16%E -1.56%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-23 02:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -3.17%E -1.70%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -6.52%E -3.34%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 08:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.69%E -1.99%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.12%E -2.06%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-23 08:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.69%E -1.99%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.12%E -2.06%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-23 20:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.69%E -1.99%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.12%E -2.06%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -3.69%E -1.99%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.56%E -2.82%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 19:16 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.69%E -1.99%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.52%E -3.34%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 04:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.69%E -1.99%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.52%E -3.34%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-24 00:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -4.21%E -2.29%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -5.56%E -2.82%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-24 00:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -4.21%E -2.29%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -5.56%E -2.82%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-24 00:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.73%E -2.59%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.12%E -2.06%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 03:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.73%E -2.59%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.12%E -2.06%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 03:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.73%E -2.59%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.12%E -2.06%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 02:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.73%E -2.59%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.12%E -2.06%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 08:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.73%E -2.59%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.12%E -2.06%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 02:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.73%E -2.59%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.12%E -2.06%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 03:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.73%E -2.59%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.12%E -2.06%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 02:09 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.73%E -2.59%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.12%E -2.06%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 02:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.73%E -2.59%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.12%E -2.06%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 06:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.73%E -2.59%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.12%E -2.06%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 06:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.73%E -2.59%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.12%E -2.06%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 03:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.73%E -2.59%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.08%E -2.56%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-24 00:55 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.73%E -2.59%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.08%E -2.56%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 13:13 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -4.73%E -2.59%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.56%E -2.82%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.73%E -2.59%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.52%E -3.34%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 02:19 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.21%EV -5.77%E -3.19%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.79%EV -8.91%E -4.69%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 12:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -6.29%E -3.50%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.08%E -2.56%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 03:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -6.29%E -3.50%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.08%E -2.56%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 03:29 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 51.56%EV -10.98%E -6.42%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.44%EV -12.75%E -7.00%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-04-23 20:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.37% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.63% | -0.0% | 2026-04-23 11:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37% | 0.4% | 2026-04-24 03:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48% | 1.1% | 2026-04-23 10:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98% | 1.2% | 2026-04-23 16:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98% | 1.2% | 2026-04-23 16:39 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09% | 1.9% | 2026-04-24 02:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34% | 2.4% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.79% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.21% | 2.7% | 2026-04-24 03:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 40.24% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.73% | 4.21I 23.75%NM 23.03% | 3.1% | 2026-04-23 08:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.54% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.83% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63% | 3.2% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.54% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.83% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63% | 3.2% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.54% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.83% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63% | 3.2% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.54% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.83% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63% | 3.2% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.18% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.78% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.04% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 08:23 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.59% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.69% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.71% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 02:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.63% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.63% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.63% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.63% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.58% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.25% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 12:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.58% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.25% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 12:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.55% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.66% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.97% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 06:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 12:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 12:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.45% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.65% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.25% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 12:34 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.66% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.75% | 12.3% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.53% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.41% | 12.4% | 2026-04-23 12:34 |