Philadelphia Flyers v Pittsburgh Penguins

2026-09-30 23:40 UTC — NHL

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

4 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

43%

34%

22%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Philadelphia Flyers (Local)

Prediction 43.48%2.30fair odd

EV -5.20%

Edge -2.39%

Kelly -4.41%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.21%43.48%43.48%44.21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.962.082.052.1851%48%49%46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit)

Prediction 34.23%2.92fair odd

EV -5.86%

Edge -2.13%

Kelly -3.35%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.07%34.23%34.23%34.65%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.452.642.652.7541%38%38%36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 22.28%4.49fair odd

EV -5.30%

Edge -1.25%

Kelly -1.63%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.58%22.28%22.28%22.71%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

3.854.084.204.2526%25%24%24%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Unibet (UK)	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.37%EV -5.20%E -2.39%K -4.41%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -5.86%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -5.30%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-15 22:20
Betclic (FR)	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.60%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -5.86%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -6.41%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-07-16 01:40
Winamax (DE)	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -10.86%E -5.30%K -10.34%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 34.20%EV -9.28%E -3.50%K -5.63%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -6.41%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%	10.3%	2026-07-16 01:49
Unibet (FR)	2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -10.86%E -5.30%K -10.34%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 34.07%EV -10.99%E -4.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 22.71%EV -13.10%E -3.36%K -4.52%G +0.000%	12.9%	2026-07-16 01:30
Winamax (FR)	1.96I 51.02%NM 43.31%EV -14.77%E -7.54%K -15.39%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 34.65%EV -16.13%E -6.58%K -11.12%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 22.05%EV -14.21%E -3.69%K -4.99%G +0.000%	17.8%	2026-07-16 01:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (4)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
DraftKings	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%	2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%	4.2%	2026-07-15 22:20
Caesars	1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%	4.8%	2026-07-15 22:20
MyBookie.ag	1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%	2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%	5.0%	2026-07-16 02:15
William Hill	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%	5.3%	2026-07-16 01:55