Language:English
Philadelphia Flyers v Pittsburgh Penguins
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Philadelphia Flyers (Local)
Prediction 56.81%1.76fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.666%
Kelly -1.57%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.12%56.63%56.74%57.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.691.691.7463.29%59.31%59.17%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit)
Prediction 43.19%2.32fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.665%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.31%43.37%43.26%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.202.202.2847.62%45.48%45.45%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Philadelphia Flyers (Local): 56.81%; Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit): 43.19%. For Philadelphia Flyers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.76. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.74, with an expected value of -1.16%; they did not produce positive expected value.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -1.16%E -0.666%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -7.13%E -3.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-30 23:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -2.86%E -1.67%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.29%E -4.42%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-30 23:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.29%EV -3.43%E -2.02%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.71%EV -1.52%E -0.665%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-09-30 22:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.43%E -2.02%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.97%E -2.26%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-30 21:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.43%E -2.02%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.97%E -2.26%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-30 21:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.43%E -2.02%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.97%E -2.26%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-30 16:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.43%E -2.02%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.84%E -2.68%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-30 23:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.43%E -2.02%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.13%E -3.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-27 19:59 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.43%E -2.02%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -9.29%E -4.42%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-30 23:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.43%E -2.02%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -9.29%E -4.42%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-30 23:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.32%EV -4.00%E -2.37%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.68%EV -1.95%E -0.858%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-30 23:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.32%EV -4.00%E -2.37%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.68%EV -1.95%E -0.858%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-30 23:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.00%E -2.37%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.81%E -1.25%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-30 16:54 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.00%E -2.37%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.81%E -1.25%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-30 22:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.00%E -2.37%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.81%E -1.25%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-30 22:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.00%E -2.37%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.81%E -1.25%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-30 23:29 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.00%E -2.37%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.81%E -1.25%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-30 22:05 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.00%E -2.37%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.81%E -1.25%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-30 22:27 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.00%E -2.37%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.97%E -2.26%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-30 16:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.00%E -2.37%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.97%E -2.26%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-30 20:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.00%E -2.37%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.97%E -2.26%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-30 23:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.00%E -2.37%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.97%E -2.26%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-30 23:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.57%E -2.72%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.24%E -1.45%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-30 20:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.57%E -2.72%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -3.68%E -1.65%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-30 18:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.57%E -2.72%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -3.68%E -1.65%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-30 18:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.57%E -2.72%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.97%E -2.26%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 23:34 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -4.57%E -2.72%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -5.40%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-30 21:03 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -4.57%E -2.72%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -5.40%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-30 23:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.57%E -2.72%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.84%E -2.68%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-30 23:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.57%E -2.72%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.84%E -2.68%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-30 23:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.57%E -2.72%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.13%E -3.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-30 23:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.57%E -2.72%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.13%E -3.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-30 20:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.57%E -2.72%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.13%E -3.32%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-30 20:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -5.14%E -3.07%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -3.68%E -1.65%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-30 18:44 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.74%EV -5.14%E -3.07%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.26%EV -5.40%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 23:34 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.27%E -3.80%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.81%E -1.25%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-30 21:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.07%EV -10.25%E -6.49%K -17.67%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -9.29%E -4.42%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-30 23:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86% | 0.6% | 2026-09-30 23:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86% | 0.6% | 2026-09-30 23:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 0.6% | 2026-09-30 23:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07% | 0.9% | 2026-09-30 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07% | 0.9% | 2026-09-30 23:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47% | 1.1% | 2026-09-30 17:20 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47% | 1.1% | 2026-09-30 17:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.86% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.14% | 1.7% | 2026-09-30 23:20 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18% | 2.9% | 2026-09-30 23:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.35% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.82% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83% | 3.0% | 2026-09-30 18:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.35% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.82% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83% | 3.0% | 2026-09-30 18:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.35% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.82% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83% | 3.0% | 2026-09-30 18:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.35% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.82% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83% | 3.0% | 2026-09-30 20:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.01% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.48% | 4.44I 22.52%NM 21.51% | 4.7% | 2026-09-30 23:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.26% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.27% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.47% | 4.7% | 2026-09-30 23:28 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.09% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.25% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65% | 5.1% | 2026-09-30 22:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.21% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.94% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.85% | 5.2% | 2026-09-30 23:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 18:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 18:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 18:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 18:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93% | 6.4% | 2026-09-30 18:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.60% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32% | 6.7% | 2026-09-30 22:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.18% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09% | 7.8% | 2026-09-30 23:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.19% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98% | 8.8% | 2026-09-30 22:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.67% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.96% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37% | 9.0% | 2026-09-30 23:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.44% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.38% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.19% | 9.8% | 2026-09-30 23:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.46% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.27% | 12.2% | 2026-09-30 23:31 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.40% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.82% | 12.4% | 2026-09-30 18:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 43.95% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 32.84% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.21% | 14.9% | 2026-09-30 22:50 |