L’École des cotes

Montréal Canadiens v Buffalo Sabres

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-17 00:18 UTC

Score final : Montréal Canadiens 3–8 Buffalo Sabres

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

31 opérateurs (11 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Montréal Canadiens (Local)

Prévision 61.17%1.63cote équitable
EV -2.74%
Avantage -1.73%
Kelly -4.65%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.59

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
60.30%61.16%61.04%62.04%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.501.561.571.5966.67%63.98%63.69%62.89%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Buffalo Sabres (Visiteur)

Prévision 38.83%2.58cote équitable
EV -0.977%
Avantage -0.383%
Kelly -0.630%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.55

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
37.96%38.84%38.96%39.70%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.302.462.452.5543.48%40.68%40.82%39.22%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

18 opérateurs proposent un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché (3 issues, contre le format 2 issues retenu dans l’analyse). Cette disparité impose d’interpréter les résultats avec prudence.

Cotes des opérateurs (31 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
theScore Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 61.50%EV -2.74%E -1.73%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.50%EV -1.36%E -0.537%K -0.886%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-17 00:15
BetUS1.59I 62.89%NM 60.74%EV -2.74%E -1.73%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.26%EV -4.47%E -1.82%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-17 00:15
Pinnacle1.58I 63.29%NM 61.56%EV -3.36%E -2.12%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.44%EV -1.75%E -0.693%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-17 00:15
LowVig.ag1.58I 63.29%NM 61.37%EV -3.36%E -2.12%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.63%EV -2.53%E -1.01%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-17 00:15
PlayUp1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.36%E -2.12%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-17 00:14
BetOnline.ag1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -1.75%E -0.693%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-17 00:15
BetAnything1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -2.92%E -1.17%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-17 00:15
Caesars1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -3.69%E -1.49%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-17 00:15
Bet Right1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -3.69%E -1.49%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-17 00:15
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 61.14%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.86%EV -4.08%E -1.65%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-17 00:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 61.14%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.86%EV -4.08%E -1.65%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-17 00:15
FanDuel1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%EV -4.47%E -1.82%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 00:15
Fanatics1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-17 00:15
DraftKings1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-17 00:15
PointsBet (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-17 00:14
Bally Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-17 00:15
betPARX1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.97%E -2.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-17 00:15
Bovada1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -4.58%E -2.94%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -0.977%E -0.383%K -0.630%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-17 00:15
BetMGM1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.58%E -2.94%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.92%E -1.17%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-17 00:15
GTbets1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.58%E -2.94%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.92%E -1.17%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-17 00:15
SportsBet1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -4.58%E -2.94%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -5.25%E -2.15%K -3.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-17 00:15
Betsson1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -4.58%E -2.94%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -6.02%E -2.49%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 00:14
NordicBet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -4.58%E -2.94%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -6.02%E -2.49%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 00:14
Hard Rock Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.58%E -2.94%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.86%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 00:15
Betr (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.19%E -3.35%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 00:15
Ladbrokes (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.19%E -3.35%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 00:15
Neds1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.19%E -3.35%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 00:15
TAB1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.19%E -3.35%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 00:15
Fliff1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.80%E -3.77%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 00:15
William Hill1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.41%E -4.19%K -12.10%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.92%E -1.17%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 00:15
Bet Victor1.50I 66.67%NM 60.53%EV -8.25%E -5.50%K -16.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -10.68%E -4.65%K -8.22%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 00:14
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (8)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57%0.5%2026-05-17 00:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57%0.5%2026-05-17 00:15
Novig1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%0.6%2026-05-17 00:15
ProphetX1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76%0.8%2026-05-17 00:15
Kalshi1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-05-17 00:15
Smarkets1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%2.1%2026-05-17 00:15
Matchbook1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%2.1%2026-05-17 00:15
Polymarket1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%2.1%2026-05-17 00:15

Autres opérateurs — hors analyse (18)

Ces opérateurs proposent un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché et sont exclus de l’analyse. Leurs cotes sont données uniquement à titre indicatif : leurs règles de règlement peuvent différer et créer une incertitude supplémentaire.

OpérateurOption 1Option 2Option 3Marge ▲Mise à jour
Unibet (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 48.53%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.41%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%3.0%2026-05-17 00:15
LeoVegas (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 48.53%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.41%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%3.0%2026-05-17 00:15
Svenska Spel2.00I 50.00%NM 48.53%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.41%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%3.0%2026-05-17 00:15
ATG (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 48.53%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.41%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%3.0%2026-05-17 00:15
Unibet (UK)1.94I 51.55%NM 49.29%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.98%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.73%4.6%2026-05-17 00:15
Coolbet1.94I 51.55%NM 49.29%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.98%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.73%4.6%2026-05-17 00:15
Unibet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.89%5.0%2026-05-17 00:15
Unibet (NL)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.83%5.3%2026-05-17 00:15
Grosvenor1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.83%5.3%2026-05-17 00:15
Casumo1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.83%5.3%2026-05-17 00:15
Winamax (DE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.32%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%5.7%2026-05-17 00:02
TABtouch1.93I 51.81%NM 48.73%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.87%6.3%2026-05-17 00:15
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%6.6%2026-05-17 00:15
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 48.87%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.96%7.1%2026-05-17 00:15
Betclic (FR)1.89I 52.91%NM 49.29%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.29%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%7.3%2026-05-17 00:13
LeoVegas1.91I 52.36%NM 48.64%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.50%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%7.6%2026-05-17 00:15
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 50.39%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%7.8%2026-05-17 00:02
PMU (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 48.87%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.32%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.81%11.8%2026-05-17 00:15