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Detroit Red Wings v Vegas Golden Knights
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Detroit Red Wings (Local)
Prediction 55.47%1.80fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -3.90%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%55.55%55.30%56.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.731.731.7559.17%57.93%57.80%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vegas Golden Knights (Visit)
Prediction 44.53%2.25fair odd
EV -1.15%
Edge -0.518%
Kelly -0.943%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.37%44.45%44.70%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.142.152.2247.62%46.64%46.51%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Detroit Red Wings (Local): 55.47%; Vegas Golden Knights (Visit): 44.53%. For Vegas Golden Knights (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.25. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.22, with an expected value of -1.15%; they did not produce positive expected value.
19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -2.92%E -1.67%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -2.93%E -1.34%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -2.92%E -1.67%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -2.93%E -1.34%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-05 00:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -2.92%E -1.67%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -4.71%E -2.20%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -2.92%E -1.67%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -4.71%E -2.20%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -3.48%E -2.00%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -1.15%E -0.518%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-03-05 00:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.48%E -2.00%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.48%E -2.00%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-05 00:07 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.48%E -2.00%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-05 00:14 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.48%E -2.00%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-05 00:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.48%E -2.00%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-05 00:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.48%E -2.00%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-05 00:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.48%E -2.00%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.71%E -2.20%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.53%EV -4.03%E -2.33%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.47%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.03%E -2.33%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.03%E -2.33%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.03%E -2.33%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.03%E -2.33%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -4.03%E -2.33%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -4.71%E -2.20%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.03%E -2.33%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.60%E -2.64%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.03%E -2.33%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.60%E -2.64%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 00:01 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.03%E -2.33%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 00:13 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.59%E -2.67%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.60%E -2.64%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 00:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.59%E -2.67%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.60%E -2.64%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 00:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.59%E -2.67%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.60%E -2.64%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 00:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.59%E -2.67%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.59%E -2.67%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-05 00:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -5.14%E -3.01%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.04%E -0.928%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-05 00:14 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -5.14%E -3.01%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -2.93%E -1.34%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 00:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.14%E -3.01%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 00:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.14%E -3.01%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -5.70%E -3.35%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -1.15%E -0.518%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-05 00:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.70%E -3.35%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 00:08 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.70%E -3.35%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 00:13 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.70%E -3.35%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 00:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.25%E -3.70%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.89% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.11% | 2.2% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.93% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.07% | 2.7% | 2026-03-05 00:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32% | 5.8% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.83% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.17% | 6.2% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.53% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.47% | 6.6% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.74% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.26% | 10.7% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.74% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.26% | 10.7% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.28% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.81% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.91% | 2.7% | 2026-03-05 00:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.28% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.81% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.91% | 2.7% | 2026-03-05 00:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.28% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.81% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.91% | 2.7% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.28% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.81% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.91% | 2.7% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.90% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.89% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.20% | 3.5% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.02% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 00:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.02% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.02% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.02% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.40% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.63% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97% | 6.2% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.71% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.17% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 00:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.54% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63% | 6.9% | 2026-03-05 00:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.36% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.90% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74% | 7.3% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.18% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09% | 7.8% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.71% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.85% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44% | 9.4% | 2026-03-05 00:01 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.78% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80% | 9.7% | 2026-03-05 00:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.26% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.61% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13% | 10.2% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.54% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.03% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.43% | 10.9% | 2026-03-05 00:11 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 42.97% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.03% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.00% | 17.5% | 2026-03-05 00:15 |