The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Detroit Red Wings v Philadelphia Flyers

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 23:13 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Detroit Red Wings (Local)

Prediction 51.50%1.94fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -3.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.67%51.55%51.62%52.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.841.851.8858.82%54.33%54.05%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Philadelphia Flyers (Visit)

Prediction 48.50%2.06fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.762%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.24%48.45%48.38%49.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.971.982.0354.64%50.67%50.51%49.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Detroit Red Wings (Local): 51.50%; Philadelphia Flyers (Visit): 48.50%. For Philadelphia Flyers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.06. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.03, with an expected value of -1.55%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.92%EV -3.18%E -1.69%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 48.08%EV -1.55%E -0.762%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-09 23:06
LowVig.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.55%EV -3.18%E -1.69%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.45%EV -3.00%E -1.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-09 23:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.55%EV -3.18%E -1.69%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.45%EV -3.00%E -1.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-09 23:10
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.17%EV -3.69%E -1.98%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.83%EV -4.94%E -2.52%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-09 23:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.69%E -1.98%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.43%E -2.78%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 23:10
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.69%E -1.98%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.43%E -2.78%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 23:10
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.69%E -1.98%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.43%E -2.78%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 23:10
Caesars🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.69%E -1.98%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.43%E -2.78%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 23:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.69%E -1.98%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.43%E -2.78%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 23:09
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.69%E -1.98%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.43%E -2.78%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 23:06
BetAnything🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.69%E -1.98%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.43%E -2.78%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 23:06
Bet Right🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.72%E -2.55%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.00%E -1.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 23:10
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.72%E -2.55%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.00%E -1.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 23:07
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.72%E -2.55%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.00%E -1.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 23:08
ReBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.72%E -2.55%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.00%E -1.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 22:59
DraftKings🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.72%E -2.55%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -3.97%E -2.01%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 23:09
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.72%E -2.55%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -3.97%E -2.01%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 23:07
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -4.72%E -2.55%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.94%E -2.52%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-09 23:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.72%E -2.55%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.43%E -2.78%K -5.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 23:08
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -4.72%E -2.55%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -7.85%E -4.13%K -8.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 23:09
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -5.75%E -3.14%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -2.03%E -1.01%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 23:10
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -5.75%E -3.14%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -2.03%E -1.01%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 23:09
Everygame🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.75%E -3.14%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.00%E -1.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 23:05
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.75%E -3.14%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.00%E -1.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 23:10
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -5.75%E -3.14%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -3.97%E -2.01%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-09 23:07
GTbets🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -5.75%E -3.14%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -3.97%E -2.01%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-09 23:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -5.75%E -3.14%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -3.97%E -2.01%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-09 23:03
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.75%E -3.14%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.43%E -2.78%K -5.71%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 23:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.75%E -3.14%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.43%E -2.78%K -5.71%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 23:10
Fliff🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.75%E -3.14%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.43%E -2.78%K -5.71%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 23:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.75%E -3.14%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.37%E -3.86%K -8.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 23:09
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -6.27%E -3.44%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -2.03%E -1.01%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-09 23:10
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.76%EV -7.30%E -4.05%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.24%EV -2.52%E -1.25%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 23:09
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.76%EV -7.30%E -4.05%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.24%EV -2.52%E -1.25%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 23:09
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.30%E -4.05%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.00%E -1.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-09 23:10
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.30%E -4.05%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.00%E -1.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-09 23:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.84%EV -12.45%E -7.32%K -17.78%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.16%EV -11.25%E -6.15%K -13.55%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-09 23:01
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.91I 52.36%NM 52.37%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.63%-0.0%2026-04-09 22:59
Polymarket◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-04-09 23:10
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%3.1%2026-04-09 23:10
Smarkets◎1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%8.2%2026-04-09 23:10
ProphetX◎1.76I 56.82%NM 51.78%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.22%9.7%2026-04-09 23:10
Matchbook◎1.78I 56.18%NM 50.42%1.81I 55.25%NM 49.58%11.4%2026-04-09 23:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-04-09 23:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-04-09 23:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.68%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.54%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.78%3.3%2026-04-09 23:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.68%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.54%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.78%3.3%2026-04-09 23:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.68%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.54%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.78%3.3%2026-04-09 23:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.68%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.54%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.78%3.3%2026-04-09 23:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.18%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.78%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.04%4.6%2026-04-09 22:59
1xBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.49%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.92%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.59%4.6%2026-04-09 22:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.22%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.97%4.7%2026-04-09 23:10
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.80%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.63%5.2%2026-04-09 23:10
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.80%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.63%5.2%2026-04-09 23:10
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.80%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.63%5.2%2026-04-09 23:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.80%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.63%5.2%2026-04-09 23:09
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.30%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.50%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.19%6.0%2026-04-09 23:09
TABtouch🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.39%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.75%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%6.7%2026-04-09 23:09
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.79%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%6.9%2026-04-09 23:09
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.70%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.08%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%7.2%2026-04-09 23:10
LeoVegas🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.81%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.49%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%7.5%2026-04-09 23:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.60%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.98%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.42%7.5%2026-04-09 23:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.31%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.44%8.0%2026-04-09 22:58
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.11%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%8.4%2026-04-09 23:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.07%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.23%9.0%2026-04-09 23:01
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.69%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%9.5%2026-04-09 23:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.72%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.53%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.76%12.7%2026-04-09 23:10