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Carolina Hurricanes v Tampa Bay Lightning

Kickoff: 2026-02-27 00:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carolina Hurricanes (Local)

Prediction 57.58%1.74fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.904%
Kelly -2.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.84%57.64%57.68%60.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.661.671.7165.79%60.37%59.88%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)

Prediction 42.42%2.36fair odd
EV +0.971%
Edge +0.408%
Kelly +0.704%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.00%42.36%42.32%44.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.262.252.3847.62%44.31%44.44%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carolina Hurricanes (Local): 57.58%; Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit): 42.42%. For Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.36. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.971%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -7.88%E -4.92%K -13.13%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV +0.971%E +0.408%K +0.704%G +0.007%4.5%2026-02-26 23:56
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -9.03%E -5.72%K -15.57%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV +0.547%E +0.231%K +0.399%G +0.002%5.5%2026-02-27 00:09
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -9.03%E -5.72%K -15.57%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV +0.547%E +0.231%K +0.399%G +0.002%5.5%2026-02-27 00:10
TAB🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -9.03%E -5.72%K -15.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -0.301%E -0.128%K -0.223%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 00:09
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -5.00%E -3.03%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -1.15%E -0.494%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-27 00:09
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.75%EV -2.70%E -1.60%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.25%EV -2.00%E -0.865%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.5%2026-02-27 00:06
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.85%E -2.31%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.42%E -1.05%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-27 00:10
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.00%E -3.03%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.42%E -1.05%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-27 00:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.00%E -3.03%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.42%E -1.05%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-27 00:09
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.00%E -3.03%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.42%E -1.05%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-27 00:09
Bally Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.00%E -3.03%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.42%E -1.05%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-27 00:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.68%EV -3.27%E -1.95%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.32%EV -2.85%E -1.24%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-27 00:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.68%EV -3.27%E -1.95%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.32%EV -2.85%E -1.24%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-27 00:10
Bet Right🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -4.43%E -2.67%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -3.27%E -1.43%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-27 00:10
FanDuel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.00%E -3.03%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -3.27%E -1.43%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-27 00:10
BetUS🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.36%EV -3.27%E -1.95%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.64%EV -4.12%E -1.82%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.8%2026-02-27 00:06
SportsBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -5.58%E -3.40%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -4.12%E -1.82%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 00:10
BetAnything🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.70%E -1.60%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.54%E -2.02%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-27 00:06
Everygame🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.70%E -1.60%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.54%E -2.02%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-27 00:06
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.70%E -1.60%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.54%E -2.02%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-27 00:10
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.85%E -2.31%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.54%E -2.02%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-27 00:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.00%E -3.03%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.54%E -2.02%K -3.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-26 23:59
MyBookie.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.00%E -3.03%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.54%E -2.02%K -3.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-27 00:04
Fliff🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.73%E -4.15%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.54%E -2.02%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-27 00:09
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -3.27%E -1.95%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -4.97%E -2.22%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.2%2026-02-27 00:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.12%E -1.25%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -6.67%E -3.03%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-27 00:10
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.12%E -1.25%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -6.67%E -3.03%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-27 00:09
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -2.70%E -1.60%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -6.67%E -3.03%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-27 00:10
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.85%E -2.31%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.67%E -3.03%K -5.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-26 23:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.00%E -3.03%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.67%E -3.03%K -5.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-27 00:10
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -1.55%E -0.904%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -7.51%E -3.45%K -6.37%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-27 00:09
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.12%E -1.25%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.79%E -4.09%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-27 00:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -3.27%E -1.95%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -8.79%E -4.09%K -7.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-27 00:10
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -3.27%E -1.95%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -8.79%E -4.09%K -7.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-27 00:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.01%EV -12.49%E -8.21%K -24.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.99%EV -10.91%E -5.19%K -9.92%G +0.000%13.4%2026-02-26 23:58
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.43%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.57%1.2%2026-02-27 00:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.43%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.57%1.2%2026-02-27 00:10
Polymarket◎1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%2.1%2026-02-27 00:09
Novig◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%3.0%2026-02-27 00:10
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 58.42%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.58%8.3%2026-02-27 00:10
ProphetX◎1.58I 63.29%NM 57.30%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.70%10.5%2026-02-27 00:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.76%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.73%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.51%3.3%2026-02-27 00:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.76%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.73%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.51%3.3%2026-02-27 00:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.76%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.73%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.51%3.3%2026-02-27 00:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.76%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.73%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.51%3.3%2026-02-27 00:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.39%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.16%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.44%3.6%2026-02-27 00:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.26%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.27%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.47%4.7%2026-02-26 23:59
Unibet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.77%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.78%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%4.8%2026-02-27 00:10
Casumo🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.77%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.78%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%4.8%2026-02-27 00:09
Grosvenor🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.77%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.78%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%4.8%2026-02-27 00:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.77%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.78%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%4.8%2026-02-27 00:10
1xBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.86%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.12%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.03%4.8%2026-02-26 23:59
Coolbet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.77%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%5.3%2026-02-27 00:05
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.66%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%6.1%2026-02-27 00:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%6.5%2026-02-27 00:10
LeoVegas🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.79%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.73%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%8.5%2026-02-27 00:10
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.03%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.66%8.6%2026-02-27 00:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 45.55%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%9.2%2026-02-27 00:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.54%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.06%9.8%2026-02-27 00:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.41%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.44%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%10.1%2026-02-27 00:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.66%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%10.1%2026-02-27 00:08
Unibet (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.40%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.54%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%11.2%2026-02-27 00:07
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.82%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.71%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.47%14.1%2026-02-27 00:09