The School of Odds
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Calgary Flames v Ottawa Senators

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 02:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Calgary Flames (Local)

Prediction 39.00%2.56fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -0.687%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%39.01%39.05%40.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.452.452.5244.44%40.87%40.82%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ottawa Senators (Visit)

Prediction 61.00%1.64fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -3.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.95%60.99%60.95%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.571.571.6068.97%63.80%63.69%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Calgary Flames (Local): 39.00%; Ottawa Senators (Visit): 61.00%. For Calgary Flames (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.52, with an expected value of -1.73%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 38.24%EV -1.73%E -0.687%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.76%EV -4.83%E -3.10%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-05 23:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.63%EV -2.12%E -0.845%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.37%EV -3.61%E -2.29%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-05 23:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.63%EV -2.12%E -0.845%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.37%EV -3.61%E -2.29%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-05 23:45
BetAnything🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.48%EV -2.12%E -0.845%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.52%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-05 23:45
Pinnacle🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98%EV -2.39%E -1.50%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.5%2026-03-05 23:45
Everygame🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.00%E -1.89%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-05 23:45
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-05 23:45
BetUS🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-05 23:45
Bovada🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-05 23:45
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.83%E -3.10%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-05 23:45
GTbets🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.83%E -3.10%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-05 23:45
Fliff🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -6.05%E -3.93%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-05 23:45
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.66%E -4.35%K -12.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-05 23:45
Paddy Power🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.86%EV -3.68%E -1.49%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.14%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-05 20:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.86%EV -3.68%E -1.49%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.14%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-05 20:15
FanDuel🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%EV -4.07%E -1.66%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-05 21:05
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -4.46%E -1.82%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -3.61%E -2.29%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-05 23:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.46%E -1.82%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-05 20:55
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.46%E -1.82%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-05 23:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.46%E -1.82%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-05 23:45
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.46%E -1.82%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-05 23:45
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.46%E -1.82%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-05 15:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.46%E -1.82%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-05 23:44
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.46%E -1.82%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.44%E -3.51%K -9.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 00:00
SportsBet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.24%E -2.16%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.83%E -3.10%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 21:10
MyBookie.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -5.63%E -2.33%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-05 23:59
betPARX🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -2.39%E -1.50%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-05 21:35
Bally Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -2.39%E -1.50%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-05 21:35
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.61%E -2.29%K -6.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-05 21:35
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-05 21:35
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-05 20:04
TAB🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.44%E -3.51%K -9.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-05 23:45
Betsson🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -6.80%E -2.85%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -3.61%E -2.29%K -6.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-05 23:45
NordicBet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -6.80%E -2.85%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -3.61%E -2.29%K -6.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-05 23:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -8.36%E -3.56%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-05 23:44
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -8.36%E -3.56%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-05 23:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.19%EV -12.26%E -5.45%K -9.81%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 60.81%EV -11.54%E -7.96%K -25.65%G +0.000%13.4%2026-03-05 23:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.39%1.62I 61.73%NM 61.61%0.2%2026-03-05 23:45
Novig◎2.59I 38.61%NM 38.48%1.62I 61.73%NM 61.52%0.3%2026-03-06 00:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76%0.6%2026-03-05 23:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76%0.6%2026-03-05 23:45
Matchbook◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76%0.6%2026-03-05 23:45
ProphetX◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58%0.9%2026-03-05 23:45
Polymarket◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%1.2%2026-03-05 22:04
Smarkets◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.13%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.87%1.7%2026-03-05 23:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯3.33I 30.03%NM 29.14%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.03%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83%3.1%2026-03-05 23:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.20%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.91%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.90%3.8%2026-03-05 21:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.20%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.91%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.90%3.8%2026-03-05 21:35
Svenska Spel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.20%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.91%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.90%3.8%2026-03-05 21:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.20%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.91%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.90%3.8%2026-03-05 21:35
Unibet (UK)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.66%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.74%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%4.1%2026-03-05 23:45
Marathon Bet🎯3.28I 30.49%NM 29.16%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.06%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.77%4.5%2026-03-05 23:45
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.04%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%5.1%2026-03-06 00:00
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.83%5.3%2026-03-05 21:35
Casumo🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.08%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.78%5.6%2026-03-05 21:35
Unibet (NL)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.08%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.78%5.6%2026-03-05 21:35
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.08%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.78%5.6%2026-03-05 21:35
TABtouch🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.86%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%6.6%2026-03-05 21:35
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%6.7%2026-03-05 18:00
LeoVegas🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.13%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%7.7%2026-03-05 21:35
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.80%8.3%2026-03-05 23:45
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%8.6%2026-03-05 18:00
Winamax (DE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%8.7%2026-03-05 23:45
Codere (IT)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%8.9%2026-03-05 23:45
Betclic (FR)🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 28.83%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%9.1%2026-03-05 23:45
Unibet (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.79%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.24%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%10.3%2026-03-06 00:00
Winamax (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.34%1.82I 54.95%NM 48.37%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.29%13.6%2026-03-05 23:45